Opinion Poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso and SIC Notícias, 7–12 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.0% 33.9–38.2% 33.3–38.8% 32.7–39.4% 31.7–40.5%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.0% 26.0–30.1% 25.5–30.7% 25.0–31.2% 24.1–32.3%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.0% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8% 7.2–11.2% 6.6–11.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 8.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 8.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7% 6.3–10.1% 5.8–10.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.2–3.2% 1.0–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 102 95–108 92–109 90–111 87–114
Partido Social Democrata 89 78 72–84 70–87 69–89 65–92
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 15–22 13–23 12–24 10–25
CDS–Partido Popular 18 15 11–20 10–20 10–21 8–24
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 17 12–19 10–20 10–21 9–22
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 2 1–3 1–3 0–3 0–4

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.5% 99.1%  
89 0.7% 98.7%  
90 0.9% 98%  
91 1.0% 97%  
92 1.3% 96%  
93 2% 95%  
94 3% 93%  
95 4% 90%  
96 3% 86%  
97 6% 83%  
98 5% 76%  
99 5% 71%  
100 8% 66%  
101 7% 58%  
102 8% 50% Median
103 5% 42%  
104 7% 37%  
105 6% 31%  
106 6% 25%  
107 6% 19%  
108 5% 13%  
109 3% 8%  
110 1.3% 5%  
111 1.0% 3%  
112 1.0% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.4%  
114 0.4% 0.8%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.2% Majority
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.4% 99.4%  
67 0.8% 99.0%  
68 0.7% 98%  
69 1.5% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 2% 94%  
72 3% 92%  
73 5% 88%  
74 7% 83%  
75 10% 76%  
76 5% 65%  
77 7% 60%  
78 7% 53% Median
79 8% 46%  
80 7% 38%  
81 7% 31%  
82 5% 25%  
83 4% 19%  
84 5% 15%  
85 2% 10%  
86 1.4% 7%  
87 1.5% 6%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 1.1% 3% Last Result
90 0.8% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 0.4% 98.9%  
12 2% 98%  
13 2% 97%  
14 4% 95%  
15 5% 91%  
16 4% 86%  
17 15% 82%  
18 43% 67% Median
19 7% 24% Last Result
20 4% 17%  
21 3% 14%  
22 3% 11%  
23 3% 7%  
24 4% 4%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.2% 99.9%  
8 0.4% 99.7%  
9 1.2% 99.3%  
10 7% 98%  
11 7% 91%  
12 4% 84%  
13 20% 80%  
14 9% 60%  
15 14% 51% Median
16 6% 37%  
17 7% 31%  
18 7% 24% Last Result
19 4% 18%  
20 11% 14%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 1.5%  
23 0.4% 1.0%  
24 0.4% 0.7%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.1% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 3% 98%  
11 3% 95%  
12 3% 92%  
13 4% 89%  
14 18% 85%  
15 4% 67%  
16 10% 63%  
17 36% 53% Last Result, Median
18 6% 17%  
19 3% 11%  
20 5% 8%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 36% 96% Last Result
2 46% 61% Median
3 12% 14%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 135 100% 128–142 126–143 124–145 120–149
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 119 78% 113–126 110–128 108–129 104–133
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 117 63% 110–124 108–126 106–127 102–131
Partido Socialista 86 102 0.2% 95–108 92–109 90–111 87–114
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 93 0% 87–100 85–102 83–104 80–108

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.3% 99.6%  
121 0.4% 99.3%  
122 0.7% 98.9% Last Result
123 0.6% 98%  
124 0.7% 98%  
125 1.2% 97%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 3% 92%  
129 3% 90%  
130 5% 86%  
131 5% 82%  
132 6% 77%  
133 7% 71%  
134 7% 64%  
135 8% 57%  
136 8% 49%  
137 7% 41% Median
138 6% 34%  
139 7% 28%  
140 6% 21%  
141 5% 16%  
142 3% 11%  
143 3% 8%  
144 1.1% 4%  
145 1.2% 3%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.5% 1.3%  
148 0.3% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.7%  
105 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
106 0.5% 98.9%  
107 0.6% 98%  
108 1.1% 98%  
109 1.1% 97%  
110 1.2% 96%  
111 2% 94%  
112 3% 93%  
113 3% 90%  
114 4% 87%  
115 5% 83%  
116 5% 78% Majority
117 6% 73%  
118 9% 67%  
119 8% 58%  
120 8% 50% Median
121 5% 42%  
122 9% 37%  
123 7% 28%  
124 6% 21%  
125 4% 16%  
126 4% 12%  
127 2% 8%  
128 1.5% 5%  
129 1.5% 4%  
130 0.8% 2%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.4% 0.9%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.3% Last Result
104 0.6% 99.0%  
105 0.6% 98%  
106 1.1% 98%  
107 1.1% 97%  
108 2% 95%  
109 2% 94%  
110 3% 92%  
111 4% 89%  
112 4% 86%  
113 6% 81%  
114 7% 76%  
115 6% 69%  
116 6% 63% Majority
117 7% 57%  
118 7% 50%  
119 8% 43% Median
120 5% 36%  
121 7% 31%  
122 7% 24%  
123 4% 17%  
124 4% 13%  
125 3% 9%  
126 2% 6%  
127 1.5% 4%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.3% 0.8%  
131 0.3% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
87 0.5% 99.6%  
88 0.5% 99.1%  
89 0.7% 98.7%  
90 0.9% 98%  
91 1.0% 97%  
92 1.3% 96%  
93 2% 95%  
94 3% 93%  
95 4% 90%  
96 3% 86%  
97 6% 83%  
98 5% 76%  
99 5% 71%  
100 8% 66%  
101 7% 58%  
102 8% 50% Median
103 5% 42%  
104 7% 37%  
105 6% 31%  
106 6% 25%  
107 6% 19%  
108 5% 13%  
109 3% 8%  
110 1.3% 5%  
111 1.0% 3%  
112 1.0% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.4%  
114 0.4% 0.8%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.2% Majority
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.5%  
81 0.3% 99.3%  
82 0.7% 99.0%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 1.2% 97%  
85 3% 96%  
86 3% 93%  
87 4% 90%  
88 6% 86%  
89 6% 80%  
90 6% 74%  
91 6% 67%  
92 8% 62%  
93 8% 53% Median
94 7% 45%  
95 8% 37%  
96 5% 29%  
97 4% 24%  
98 5% 20%  
99 4% 15%  
100 3% 11%  
101 3% 9%  
102 2% 6%  
103 1.1% 4%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 0.5% 2%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
108 0.4% 0.8%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations