Opinion Poll by CESOP–UCP, 16–19 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 39.0% 37.6–40.5% 37.2–40.9% 36.8–41.2% 36.1–41.9%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 28.0% 26.7–29.4% 26.3–29.8% 26.0–30.1% 25.4–30.7%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.8%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.9% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.8%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.1% 5.9–8.3% 5.6–8.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.0% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.1%
Aliança 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 108 104–112 102–113 101–114 99–116
Partido Social Democrata 89 75 73–79 71–81 70–82 68–84
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 15–18 14–19 14–20 12–22
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 16 14–18 13–18 13–18 10–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 10 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–6
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 1.0% 99.3%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 3% 97%  
103 4% 94%  
104 6% 90%  
105 7% 84%  
106 11% 77%  
107 11% 67%  
108 12% 56% Median
109 17% 44%  
110 13% 27%  
111 4% 15%  
112 3% 10%  
113 3% 7%  
114 2% 4%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.6% Majority
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 1.3% 96%  
72 3% 94%  
73 7% 92%  
74 21% 85%  
75 22% 64% Median
76 13% 42%  
77 10% 29%  
78 6% 20%  
79 5% 14%  
80 3% 9%  
81 3% 6%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.2% 99.9%  
12 0.8% 99.8%  
13 1.3% 98.9%  
14 3% 98%  
15 9% 95%  
16 10% 86%  
17 38% 76% Median
18 31% 38%  
19 4% 7% Last Result
20 1.5% 3%  
21 0.7% 1.4%  
22 0.3% 0.7%  
23 0.2% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.8%  
11 0.6% 99.4%  
12 1.3% 98.9%  
13 5% 98%  
14 20% 93%  
15 13% 73%  
16 13% 60% Median
17 36% 47% Last Result
18 9% 11%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.6% 0.9%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.4% 100%  
7 0.3% 99.6%  
8 9% 99.3%  
9 10% 91%  
10 33% 81% Median
11 25% 48%  
12 9% 23%  
13 11% 15%  
14 2% 4%  
15 0.9% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 15% 99.9%  
3 48% 85% Median
4 35% 37%  
5 0.9% 2%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 141 100% 136–144 135–145 134–147 132–149
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 125 99.7% 121–128 119–130 118–131 116–133
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 124 99.1% 119–127 118–129 117–130 115–132
Partido Socialista 86 108 0.6% 104–112 102–113 101–114 99–116
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 83–90 82–92 80–93 78–95

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.2% 99.8%  
132 0.4% 99.7%  
133 0.9% 99.2%  
134 2% 98%  
135 2% 97%  
136 5% 94%  
137 5% 89%  
138 7% 84%  
139 10% 77%  
140 13% 67%  
141 14% 54% Median
142 16% 40%  
143 9% 24%  
144 7% 15%  
145 3% 8%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.0% 3%  
148 1.1% 2%  
149 0.5% 0.7%  
150 0.2% 0.3%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0.2% 99.9%  
116 0.4% 99.7% Majority
117 0.7% 99.2%  
118 1.3% 98.5%  
119 3% 97%  
120 3% 94%  
121 6% 91%  
122 7% 85%  
123 11% 78%  
124 11% 67%  
125 14% 57% Median
126 15% 43%  
127 12% 28%  
128 7% 16%  
129 3% 8%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.5% 4%  
132 1.2% 2%  
133 0.5% 0.8%  
134 0.2% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.3% 99.8%  
115 0.5% 99.5%  
116 0.9% 99.1% Majority
117 2% 98%  
118 3% 96%  
119 4% 93%  
120 6% 89%  
121 7% 83%  
122 10% 76%  
123 12% 66%  
124 17% 54% Median
125 11% 37%  
126 10% 26%  
127 6% 16%  
128 4% 10%  
129 3% 6%  
130 2% 3%  
131 1.0% 2%  
132 0.4% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.2% 99.9%  
99 0.4% 99.7%  
100 1.0% 99.3%  
101 1.3% 98%  
102 3% 97%  
103 4% 94%  
104 6% 90%  
105 7% 84%  
106 11% 77%  
107 11% 67%  
108 12% 56% Median
109 17% 44%  
110 13% 27%  
111 4% 15%  
112 3% 10%  
113 3% 7%  
114 2% 4%  
115 2% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.6% Majority
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.5% 99.8%  
79 1.0% 99.2%  
80 2% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 3% 95%  
83 7% 92%  
84 12% 85%  
85 16% 73% Median
86 17% 57%  
87 13% 41%  
88 8% 28%  
89 6% 20%  
90 5% 14%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.9% 1.4%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations