Opinion Poll by Pitagórica, 10–19 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 40.5% 38.0–43.1% 37.3–43.8% 36.7–44.5% 35.5–45.7%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 22.5% 20.4–24.8% 19.8–25.4% 19.3–26.0% 18.4–27.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.3% 7.0–9.9% 6.6–10.3% 6.3–10.7% 5.8–11.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.4% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.3% 4.8–8.7% 4.3–9.4%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.1% 5.0–7.6% 4.7–8.0% 4.5–8.3% 4.0–9.1%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 3.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.6–5.2% 2.4–5.5% 2.1–6.1%
Aliança 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–2.8% 0.6–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 121 113–130 111–132 109–134 105–137
Partido Social Democrata 89 63 57–71 55–74 54–76 52–79
Bloco de Esquerda 19 17 14–21 11–23 10–24 9–25
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 8–17 6–18 6–19 5–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 10 7–15 6–17 6–18 6–19
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 4 3–6 3–7 2–8 2–10
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 99.2%  
108 0.5% 98.6%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 1.0% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 95%  
113 3% 92%  
114 5% 89%  
115 5% 84%  
116 5% 79% Majority
117 5% 74%  
118 7% 69%  
119 5% 62%  
120 5% 57%  
121 4% 52% Median
122 5% 47%  
123 7% 42%  
124 5% 35%  
125 4% 31%  
126 5% 26%  
127 5% 22%  
128 3% 17%  
129 3% 14%  
130 3% 11%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.5% 5%  
133 1.2% 4%  
134 0.9% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.4% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.7%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 1.2% 99.0%  
54 3% 98%  
55 2% 95%  
56 3% 93%  
57 4% 90%  
58 5% 86%  
59 7% 81%  
60 8% 74%  
61 6% 66%  
62 4% 60%  
63 7% 55% Median
64 6% 48%  
65 4% 42%  
66 4% 38%  
67 7% 34%  
68 4% 27%  
69 4% 23%  
70 6% 20%  
71 4% 14%  
72 2% 10%  
73 2% 8%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.0% 4%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.2%  
11 2% 96%  
12 2% 94%  
13 2% 93%  
14 5% 91%  
15 8% 85%  
16 11% 77%  
17 20% 66% Median
18 19% 46%  
19 8% 27% Last Result
20 8% 19%  
21 3% 11%  
22 2% 8%  
23 3% 6%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.8% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.3%  
28 0.2% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 1.4% 100%  
6 5% 98.6%  
7 3% 94%  
8 7% 90%  
9 9% 83%  
10 7% 74%  
11 4% 68%  
12 6% 64%  
13 14% 58% Median
14 27% 44%  
15 3% 17%  
16 3% 14%  
17 6% 11% Last Result
18 2% 5%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.8% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.3% 100%  
5 0.2% 99.7%  
6 6% 99.5%  
7 11% 94%  
8 20% 83%  
9 7% 63%  
10 11% 56% Median
11 14% 46%  
12 10% 32%  
13 7% 22%  
14 4% 15%  
15 4% 11%  
16 1.4% 7%  
17 2% 5%  
18 2% 3% Last Result
19 2% 2%  
20 0.1% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 4% 99.9%  
3 17% 96%  
4 29% 79% Median
5 7% 50%  
6 36% 43%  
7 4% 8%  
8 2% 4%  
9 0.9% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.6%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 22%  
2 18% 19%  
3 0.2% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 151 100% 142–158 140–160 138–162 135–164
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 138 100% 130–147 128–149 126–151 122–154
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 134 99.8% 125–141 123–143 121–145 118–148
Partido Socialista 86 121 79% 113–130 111–132 109–134 105–137
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 74 0% 67–82 65–85 63–86 61–89

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.2% 99.7%  
135 0.2% 99.6%  
136 0.3% 99.3%  
137 0.7% 99.0%  
138 1.0% 98%  
139 2% 97%  
140 1.3% 96%  
141 3% 94%  
142 2% 92%  
143 3% 90%  
144 5% 87%  
145 5% 82%  
146 5% 77%  
147 4% 72%  
148 5% 68%  
149 8% 63%  
150 4% 56%  
151 4% 51% Median
152 5% 47%  
153 6% 42%  
154 5% 35%  
155 6% 31%  
156 5% 24%  
157 5% 19%  
158 4% 14%  
159 4% 10%  
160 2% 6%  
161 2% 4%  
162 0.9% 3%  
163 0.8% 2%  
164 0.4% 0.8%  
165 0.2% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.2% 99.8%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.3% 99.5%  
124 0.4% 99.2%  
125 0.6% 98.8%  
126 0.7% 98%  
127 2% 97%  
128 2% 96%  
129 2% 94%  
130 5% 92%  
131 4% 87%  
132 3% 83%  
133 3% 80%  
134 7% 78%  
135 6% 70%  
136 5% 64%  
137 5% 59%  
138 5% 54% Median
139 4% 49%  
140 6% 45%  
141 7% 39%  
142 6% 32%  
143 4% 26%  
144 4% 22%  
145 5% 19%  
146 3% 14%  
147 3% 11%  
148 3% 9%  
149 2% 6%  
150 0.9% 4%  
151 0.8% 3%  
152 1.1% 2%  
153 0.5% 1.2%  
154 0.3% 0.7%  
155 0.2% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8% Majority
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.6%  
119 0.4% 99.3%  
120 0.9% 98.8%  
121 0.9% 98%  
122 1.4% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 4% 89%  
127 4% 86%  
128 5% 81%  
129 5% 76%  
130 6% 71%  
131 6% 66%  
132 5% 60%  
133 4% 55%  
134 6% 51% Median
135 3% 45%  
136 6% 42%  
137 6% 36%  
138 7% 29%  
139 6% 22%  
140 4% 16%  
141 4% 12%  
142 3% 8%  
143 2% 5%  
144 1.0% 4%  
145 0.8% 3%  
146 0.7% 2%  
147 0.5% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 0.6%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.5% 99.2%  
108 0.5% 98.6%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 1.0% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 95%  
113 3% 92%  
114 5% 89%  
115 5% 84%  
116 5% 79% Majority
117 5% 74%  
118 7% 69%  
119 5% 62%  
120 5% 57%  
121 4% 52% Median
122 5% 47%  
123 7% 42%  
124 5% 35%  
125 4% 31%  
126 5% 26%  
127 5% 22%  
128 3% 17%  
129 3% 14%  
130 3% 11%  
131 2% 7%  
132 1.5% 5%  
133 1.2% 4%  
134 0.9% 3%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.4% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.7%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 0.8% 99.1%  
63 0.9% 98%  
64 1.4% 97%  
65 3% 96%  
66 2% 93%  
67 6% 91%  
68 6% 85%  
69 3% 79%  
70 6% 76%  
71 6% 70%  
72 7% 64%  
73 6% 57% Median
74 4% 52%  
75 8% 48%  
76 5% 40%  
77 5% 36%  
78 6% 31%  
79 5% 25%  
80 4% 20%  
81 3% 17%  
82 4% 13%  
83 2% 9%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.5% 4%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.4%  
89 0.5% 1.0%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations