Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 16–22 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 36.5% 34.1–39.0% 33.4–39.7% 32.8–40.4% 31.7–41.6%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 25.7% 23.6–28.1% 23.0–28.7% 22.4–29.3% 21.4–30.5%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.2% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.3% 7.1–11.7% 6.5–12.5%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 7.2% 6.1–8.7% 5.7–9.2% 5.4–9.6% 4.9–10.3%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.9% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.8% 5.2–9.2% 4.7–10.0%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 1.4% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.7% 0.6–3.2%
Aliança 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.7–2.5% 0.5–3.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 108 101–116 98–117 97–119 92–124
Partido Social Democrata 89 74 67–81 65–83 64–85 60–90
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 16–24 14–24 13–25 10–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 16 11–18 9–19 9–20 7–21
CDS–Partido Popular 18 12 9–18 8–19 7–20 6–22
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–4
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.5%  
94 0.4% 99.2%  
95 0.5% 98.8%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 1.4% 98%  
98 1.3% 96%  
99 2% 95%  
100 2% 93%  
101 4% 91%  
102 4% 88%  
103 4% 83%  
104 7% 79%  
105 7% 72%  
106 6% 64%  
107 5% 58%  
108 6% 53% Median
109 9% 47%  
110 5% 38%  
111 5% 32%  
112 5% 28%  
113 5% 23%  
114 4% 18%  
115 4% 14%  
116 4% 10% Majority
117 2% 7%  
118 2% 5%  
119 1.1% 3%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.2%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.3% 99.3%  
62 0.6% 99.1%  
63 0.7% 98.5%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 1.1% 92%  
67 3% 91%  
68 5% 88%  
69 5% 83%  
70 5% 78%  
71 7% 73%  
72 4% 66%  
73 8% 63%  
74 10% 54% Median
75 11% 44%  
76 7% 33%  
77 4% 27%  
78 4% 22%  
79 5% 18%  
80 3% 13%  
81 3% 11%  
82 3% 8%  
83 1.0% 5%  
84 1.5% 4%  
85 0.7% 3%  
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.4% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.2%  
89 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 0.3% 99.5%  
12 1.0% 99.2%  
13 2% 98%  
14 2% 97%  
15 2% 95%  
16 3% 92%  
17 11% 89%  
18 35% 78% Median
19 7% 44% Last Result
20 5% 36%  
21 4% 32%  
22 4% 28%  
23 9% 24%  
24 12% 15%  
25 1.4% 3%  
26 0.4% 2%  
27 0.8% 1.5%  
28 0.6% 0.7%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.9%  
7 0.6% 99.5%  
8 1.3% 98.9%  
9 4% 98%  
10 3% 94%  
11 4% 91%  
12 3% 87%  
13 5% 85%  
14 19% 80%  
15 10% 61%  
16 9% 51% Median
17 30% 42% Last Result
18 5% 13%  
19 3% 7%  
20 3% 5%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 2% 100%  
7 2% 98%  
8 5% 96%  
9 9% 92%  
10 21% 83%  
11 8% 62%  
12 9% 54% Median
13 15% 45%  
14 6% 30%  
15 6% 24%  
16 4% 18%  
17 2% 14%  
18 5% 12% Last Result
19 3% 7%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.6% 1.2%  
22 0.2% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 48% 77% Last Result, Median
2 24% 29%  
3 4% 5%  
4 0.8% 0.9%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 15%  
2 12% 12%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 143 100% 135–150 132–151 130–153 125–157
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 127 98% 120–135 118–137 116–139 112–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 123 90% 116–130 113–132 110–134 105–138
Partido Socialista 86 108 10% 101–116 98–117 97–119 92–124
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 86 0% 79–93 78–96 76–99 72–104

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.2% 99.6%  
126 0.3% 99.4%  
127 0.5% 99.2%  
128 0.4% 98.7%  
129 0.6% 98%  
130 0.9% 98%  
131 0.9% 97%  
132 1.1% 96%  
133 1.0% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 92%  
136 2% 89%  
137 5% 87%  
138 3% 82%  
139 6% 79%  
140 7% 73%  
141 8% 66%  
142 7% 58% Median
143 6% 50%  
144 9% 44%  
145 8% 36%  
146 4% 28%  
147 5% 24%  
148 4% 18%  
149 4% 14%  
150 2% 10%  
151 4% 8%  
152 2% 5%  
153 0.8% 3%  
154 0.8% 2%  
155 0.5% 1.3%  
156 0.3% 0.9%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.5%  
113 0.3% 99.3%  
114 0.4% 99.0%  
115 0.9% 98.6%  
116 0.9% 98% Majority
117 1.4% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 2% 94%  
120 4% 91%  
121 4% 87%  
122 3% 84%  
123 6% 81%  
124 6% 74%  
125 6% 68%  
126 5% 62% Median
127 9% 57%  
128 9% 48%  
129 5% 39%  
130 6% 34%  
131 4% 28%  
132 5% 24%  
133 4% 19%  
134 4% 16%  
135 3% 11%  
136 2% 8%  
137 2% 6%  
138 1.3% 4%  
139 0.8% 3%  
140 0.8% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.3%  
142 0.4% 1.0%  
143 0.3% 0.7%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.3% 99.4%  
107 0.3% 99.1%  
108 0.4% 98.8%  
109 0.5% 98%  
110 0.7% 98%  
111 0.8% 97%  
112 0.6% 96%  
113 1.5% 96%  
114 2% 94%  
115 2% 93%  
116 3% 90% Majority
117 2% 88%  
118 5% 85%  
119 5% 81%  
120 4% 76%  
121 9% 72%  
122 7% 63%  
123 8% 56%  
124 7% 48% Median
125 6% 42%  
126 8% 36%  
127 6% 28%  
128 5% 22%  
129 5% 18%  
130 4% 13%  
131 3% 9%  
132 2% 6%  
133 1.2% 4%  
134 1.0% 3%  
135 0.4% 2%  
136 0.4% 1.2%  
137 0.3% 0.8%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.2% 99.7%  
93 0.3% 99.5%  
94 0.4% 99.2%  
95 0.5% 98.8%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 1.4% 98%  
98 1.3% 96%  
99 2% 95%  
100 2% 93%  
101 4% 91%  
102 4% 88%  
103 4% 83%  
104 7% 79%  
105 7% 72%  
106 6% 64%  
107 5% 58%  
108 6% 53% Median
109 9% 47%  
110 5% 38%  
111 5% 32%  
112 5% 28%  
113 5% 23%  
114 4% 18%  
115 4% 14%  
116 4% 10% Majority
117 2% 7%  
118 2% 5%  
119 1.1% 3%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.2%  
123 0.2% 0.8%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.4%  
74 0.5% 99.1%  
75 0.7% 98.6%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 1.5% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 4% 89%  
81 5% 85%  
82 4% 80%  
83 7% 76%  
84 8% 69%  
85 8% 61%  
86 9% 53% Median
87 6% 44%  
88 9% 38%  
89 4% 28%  
90 5% 24%  
91 4% 19%  
92 4% 16%  
93 2% 12%  
94 2% 9%  
95 2% 7%  
96 0.7% 5%  
97 0.8% 5%  
98 0.8% 4%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.2%  
103 0.2% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations