Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 2–6 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.4% 35.5–39.4% 34.9–39.9% 34.5–40.4% 33.5–41.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 24.2% 22.5–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.7–26.9% 20.9–27.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.8–10.8% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.3% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Aliança 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 111 105–116 104–118 103–120 100–125
Partido Social Democrata 89 70 65–75 63–77 61–78 59–81
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 17–23 16–24 15–24 13–26
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 13 8–14 7–16 7–17 6–18
CDS–Partido Popular 18 10 8–13 7–13 6–16 6–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 7 6–9 5–9 4–11 4–13
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.5%  
101 0.5% 99.2%  
102 0.8% 98.6%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 96%  
105 4% 93%  
106 3% 90%  
107 6% 87%  
108 7% 81%  
109 6% 73%  
110 10% 67%  
111 10% 57% Median
112 8% 47%  
113 16% 39%  
114 7% 23%  
115 5% 17%  
116 4% 11% Majority
117 2% 8%  
118 2% 6%  
119 1.2% 4%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.3% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.2% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 98.9%  
61 0.8% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 2% 93%  
65 4% 92%  
66 5% 88%  
67 7% 83%  
68 8% 76%  
69 13% 68%  
70 6% 55% Median
71 8% 49%  
72 7% 41%  
73 8% 33%  
74 10% 25%  
75 5% 15%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.8%  
13 0.2% 99.7%  
14 0.7% 99.5%  
15 2% 98.8%  
16 3% 97%  
17 17% 94%  
18 22% 77%  
19 13% 55% Last Result, Median
20 19% 43%  
21 8% 24%  
22 5% 16%  
23 5% 11%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.8% 1.4%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 1.3% 99.5%  
7 4% 98%  
8 6% 94%  
9 11% 89%  
10 13% 77%  
11 6% 65%  
12 6% 58%  
13 22% 52% Median
14 23% 30%  
15 2% 7%  
16 2% 5%  
17 2% 4% Last Result
18 0.9% 1.2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 4% 97%  
8 28% 92%  
9 12% 64%  
10 15% 52% Median
11 18% 37%  
12 9% 19%  
13 6% 10%  
14 0.8% 5%  
15 1.2% 4%  
16 1.1% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.5%  
18 0.5% 0.8% Last Result
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 2% 96%  
6 44% 95%  
7 17% 51% Median
8 20% 34%  
9 9% 14%  
10 2% 5%  
11 0.8% 3%  
12 0.9% 2%  
13 0.8% 1.2%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 40%  
2 35% 35%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 142 100% 136–148 135–150 134–152 130–155
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 130 99.9% 124–136 123–138 122–140 118–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 123 96% 118–128 116–130 114–133 111–136
Partido Socialista 86 111 11% 105–116 104–118 103–120 100–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 80 0% 75–86 73–86 70–88 67–91

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.8%  
130 0.3% 99.7%  
131 0.3% 99.4%  
132 0.4% 99.1%  
133 0.9% 98.7%  
134 1.3% 98%  
135 2% 97%  
136 5% 94%  
137 5% 90%  
138 7% 85%  
139 9% 78%  
140 7% 69%  
141 9% 62%  
142 10% 54%  
143 7% 43% Median
144 8% 37%  
145 6% 29%  
146 7% 22%  
147 4% 16%  
148 4% 12%  
149 2% 8%  
150 2% 6%  
151 1.1% 4%  
152 0.9% 3%  
153 0.7% 2%  
154 0.5% 1.3%  
155 0.3% 0.8%  
156 0.3% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.5% 99.2%  
121 1.1% 98.7%  
122 2% 98%  
123 2% 96%  
124 4% 94%  
125 4% 90%  
126 6% 85%  
127 8% 80%  
128 8% 72%  
129 7% 64%  
130 7% 57% Median
131 12% 50%  
132 8% 37%  
133 7% 29%  
134 6% 23%  
135 5% 17%  
136 4% 12%  
137 2% 8%  
138 2% 6%  
139 2% 5%  
140 1.0% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.3%  
143 0.5% 0.9%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.4% 99.6%  
112 0.4% 99.2%  
113 0.6% 98.8%  
114 1.0% 98%  
115 1.0% 97%  
116 2% 96% Majority
117 4% 94%  
118 4% 91%  
119 7% 87%  
120 8% 80%  
121 10% 72%  
122 10% 62%  
123 11% 52%  
124 11% 41% Median
125 5% 30%  
126 8% 25%  
127 6% 17%  
128 3% 12%  
129 2% 9%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.4% 5%  
132 0.7% 3%  
133 0.7% 3%  
134 0.5% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.3%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.4% 99.5%  
101 0.5% 99.2%  
102 0.8% 98.6%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 96%  
105 4% 93%  
106 3% 90%  
107 6% 87%  
108 7% 81%  
109 6% 73%  
110 10% 67%  
111 10% 57% Median
112 8% 47%  
113 16% 39%  
114 7% 23%  
115 5% 17%  
116 4% 11% Majority
117 2% 8%  
118 2% 6%  
119 1.2% 4%  
120 0.9% 3%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.3% 1.1%  
124 0.2% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.2% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0.1% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.5%  
69 0.6% 99.0%  
70 1.1% 98%  
71 0.9% 97%  
72 1.0% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 94%  
75 3% 91%  
76 6% 88%  
77 8% 81%  
78 9% 74%  
79 10% 65%  
80 6% 55% Median
81 8% 49%  
82 9% 40%  
83 8% 31%  
84 8% 23%  
85 5% 15%  
86 5% 10%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.5%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations