Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 13–19 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 35.5% 33.1–38.1% 32.4–38.8% 31.8–39.4% 30.7–40.7%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 23.1% 21.0–25.5% 20.5–26.1% 20.0–26.7% 19.0–27.8%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 8.9% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1% 6.9–11.5% 6.3–12.3%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.9% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.9% 5.2–9.3% 4.7–10.0%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.6% 5.5–8.1% 5.2–8.5% 4.9–8.9% 4.4–9.6%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.7% 2.8–6.0% 2.4–6.7%
Aliança 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.4–1.9% 0.2–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 109 101–116 99–118 97–121 93–125
Partido Social Democrata 89 69 61–75 60–78 58–79 55–84
Bloco de Esquerda 19 19 16–24 15–24 14–26 10–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 10–18 8–19 8–20 7–21
CDS–Partido Popular 18 11 8–18 8–19 7–20 6–22
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 4–8 4–9 3–10 2–13
Aliança 0 0 0 0 0 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.5%  
95 0.5% 99.3%  
96 0.8% 98.8%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 1.4% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 2% 91%  
102 2% 89%  
103 5% 87%  
104 4% 81%  
105 7% 78%  
106 6% 71%  
107 7% 65%  
108 6% 58%  
109 5% 52% Median
110 6% 47%  
111 6% 41%  
112 7% 34%  
113 5% 27%  
114 6% 22%  
115 5% 16%  
116 3% 11% Majority
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 7%  
119 1.3% 5%  
120 1.0% 4%  
121 0.5% 3%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.5% 1.5%  
124 0.4% 1.0%  
125 0.3% 0.7%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.5% 99.6%  
56 0.5% 99.1%  
57 1.0% 98.7%  
58 0.8% 98%  
59 1.5% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 3% 92%  
62 6% 89%  
63 3% 84%  
64 5% 81%  
65 4% 76%  
66 5% 71%  
67 7% 67%  
68 6% 60%  
69 7% 54% Median
70 4% 47%  
71 4% 43%  
72 9% 38%  
73 6% 29%  
74 9% 23%  
75 5% 14%  
76 1.2% 9%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 6%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.3%  
83 0.2% 0.8%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.4% 99.9%  
11 0.5% 99.5%  
12 0.5% 99.0%  
13 0.8% 98.6%  
14 2% 98%  
15 3% 96%  
16 4% 93%  
17 13% 89%  
18 23% 76%  
19 11% 53% Last Result, Median
20 9% 42%  
21 6% 33%  
22 6% 26%  
23 5% 21%  
24 12% 16%  
25 2% 4%  
26 0.8% 3%  
27 0.8% 2%  
28 1.0% 1.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 0.3% 99.8%  
7 1.2% 99.5%  
8 4% 98%  
9 3% 95%  
10 4% 92%  
11 4% 88%  
12 4% 84%  
13 14% 79%  
14 29% 66% Median
15 5% 37%  
16 4% 32%  
17 11% 28% Last Result
18 10% 17%  
19 3% 7%  
20 3% 5%  
21 1.0% 1.5%  
22 0.1% 0.5%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.3% 100%  
7 2% 98.7%  
8 13% 97%  
9 2% 84%  
10 14% 82%  
11 18% 68% Median
12 10% 50%  
13 10% 40%  
14 5% 30%  
15 5% 25%  
16 2% 20%  
17 5% 18%  
18 4% 13% Last Result
19 4% 9%  
20 3% 5%  
21 0.6% 1.2%  
22 0.3% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.6% 100%  
3 4% 99.4%  
4 18% 95%  
5 5% 77%  
6 51% 73% Median
7 5% 22%  
8 9% 17%  
9 5% 8%  
10 1.3% 3%  
11 0.3% 2%  
12 0.5% 1.4%  
13 0.6% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 2%  
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 142 100% 135–150 133–153 131–155 126–159
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 128 98% 121–136 118–139 116–141 113–145
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 123 90% 115–131 113–133 111–136 107–139
Partido Socialista 86 109 11% 101–116 99–118 97–121 93–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 81 0% 74–89 71–91 69–93 66–97

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9% Last Result
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.3% 99.3%  
129 0.7% 99.0%  
130 0.7% 98%  
131 0.7% 98%  
132 2% 97%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 93%  
135 3% 91%  
136 3% 88%  
137 5% 85%  
138 5% 80%  
139 5% 74%  
140 5% 69%  
141 7% 64%  
142 7% 57% Median
143 4% 50%  
144 8% 46%  
145 6% 38%  
146 4% 32%  
147 7% 29%  
148 6% 22%  
149 4% 16%  
150 4% 12%  
151 2% 8%  
152 1.2% 7%  
153 1.3% 5%  
154 1.1% 4%  
155 0.7% 3%  
156 1.0% 2%  
157 0.4% 1.3%  
158 0.3% 0.8%  
159 0.2% 0.5%  
160 0.2% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.6%  
114 0.5% 99.3%  
115 0.8% 98.7%  
116 0.6% 98% Majority
117 1.5% 97%  
118 2% 96%  
119 1.3% 94%  
120 2% 93%  
121 3% 90%  
122 3% 87%  
123 5% 84%  
124 6% 79%  
125 6% 74%  
126 4% 68%  
127 8% 63%  
128 7% 55% Median
129 5% 48%  
130 9% 44%  
131 5% 35%  
132 5% 30%  
133 6% 25%  
134 5% 19%  
135 4% 15%  
136 3% 11%  
137 2% 8%  
138 2% 7%  
139 1.1% 5%  
140 1.1% 4%  
141 0.9% 3%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.4% 1.3%  
144 0.3% 0.9%  
145 0.2% 0.6%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9% Last Result
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.1% 99.7%  
107 0.2% 99.6%  
108 0.3% 99.4%  
109 0.5% 99.1%  
110 0.6% 98.7%  
111 1.1% 98%  
112 0.6% 97%  
113 1.4% 96%  
114 2% 95%  
115 3% 93%  
116 3% 90% Majority
117 4% 86%  
118 5% 83%  
119 6% 77%  
120 6% 71%  
121 6% 65%  
122 5% 59%  
123 5% 54% Median
124 6% 49%  
125 6% 42%  
126 6% 37%  
127 6% 30%  
128 3% 24%  
129 5% 20%  
130 5% 15%  
131 2% 10%  
132 3% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 1.0% 4%  
135 0.7% 3%  
136 0.7% 3%  
137 0.8% 2%  
138 0.5% 1.1%  
139 0.3% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.6%  
94 0.2% 99.5%  
95 0.5% 99.3%  
96 0.8% 98.8%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 1.4% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 2% 91%  
102 2% 89%  
103 5% 87%  
104 4% 81%  
105 7% 78%  
106 6% 71%  
107 7% 65%  
108 6% 58%  
109 5% 52% Median
110 6% 47%  
111 6% 41%  
112 7% 34%  
113 5% 27%  
114 6% 22%  
115 5% 16%  
116 3% 11% Majority
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 7%  
119 1.3% 5%  
120 1.0% 4%  
121 0.5% 3%  
122 0.5% 2%  
123 0.5% 1.5%  
124 0.4% 1.0%  
125 0.3% 0.7%  
126 0.1% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 0.5% 99.3%  
68 0.9% 98.8%  
69 0.7% 98%  
70 1.0% 97%  
71 1.4% 96%  
72 2% 95%  
73 2% 93%  
74 3% 92%  
75 5% 88%  
76 4% 83%  
77 6% 79%  
78 4% 73%  
79 7% 68%  
80 7% 61% Median
81 4% 54%  
82 6% 49%  
83 7% 44%  
84 7% 37%  
85 6% 30%  
86 4% 24%  
87 5% 20%  
88 4% 15%  
89 2% 11%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 1.4% 4%  
93 0.6% 3%  
94 0.6% 2%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.3% 0.9%  
97 0.1% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations