Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Associação Mutualista Montepio, 7–11 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 37.3% 35.4–39.3% 34.8–39.8% 34.4–40.3% 33.4–41.3%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 23.6% 22.0–25.4% 21.5–25.9% 21.1–26.4% 20.3–27.2%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 6.8% 5.9–8.0% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Aliança 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.7–2.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 112 105–117 104–119 103–121 100–125
Partido Social Democrata 89 69 62–74 61–75 60–77 57–80
Bloco de Esquerda 19 18 17–23 16–24 15–24 13–26
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 14 10–17 9–17 8–18 7–20
CDS–Partido Popular 18 11 8–15 8–17 7–18 6–19
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 4–7 4–8 4–9 3–10
Aliança 0 0 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.7%  
101 0.5% 99.4%  
102 1.0% 98.8%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 96%  
105 4% 94%  
106 4% 90%  
107 5% 85%  
108 5% 80%  
109 8% 75%  
110 8% 67%  
111 8% 60%  
112 8% 52% Median
113 12% 44%  
114 8% 32%  
115 6% 24%  
116 4% 17% Majority
117 4% 13%  
118 3% 9%  
119 2% 6%  
120 1.2% 4%  
121 0.6% 3%  
122 0.8% 2%  
123 0.6% 1.5%  
124 0.3% 0.9%  
125 0.3% 0.6%  
126 0.2% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 0.4% 99.3%  
59 1.2% 98.8%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 3% 93%  
63 3% 90%  
64 4% 87%  
65 5% 83%  
66 9% 78%  
67 12% 69%  
68 8% 58%  
69 7% 50% Median
70 6% 43%  
71 7% 37%  
72 7% 30%  
73 7% 23%  
74 8% 16%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.9%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.2% 99.8%  
13 0.2% 99.6%  
14 0.7% 99.3%  
15 3% 98.7%  
16 5% 95%  
17 16% 91%  
18 26% 75% Median
19 8% 49% Last Result
20 21% 42%  
21 6% 21%  
22 3% 15%  
23 4% 12%  
24 6% 7%  
25 0.6% 1.1%  
26 0.3% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 0.6% 99.7%  
8 4% 99.0%  
9 4% 95%  
10 6% 91%  
11 4% 85%  
12 4% 81%  
13 10% 77%  
14 47% 67% Median
15 5% 20%  
16 3% 15%  
17 8% 12% Last Result
18 3% 5%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.8% 100%  
7 2% 99.2%  
8 15% 97%  
9 8% 82%  
10 19% 74%  
11 18% 56% Median
12 15% 38%  
13 10% 23%  
14 2% 13%  
15 3% 11%  
16 2% 7%  
17 1.4% 5%  
18 3% 4% Last Result
19 0.9% 1.2%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 2% 99.9%  
4 15% 98%  
5 6% 83%  
6 61% 78% Median
7 7% 17%  
8 7% 10%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Aliança

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 14%  
2 10% 10%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 144 100% 138–150 137–152 135–154 132–157
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 131 99.9% 125–137 123–139 122–140 119–144
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 125 98% 119–131 117–133 116–135 113–138
Partido Socialista 86 112 17% 105–117 104–119 103–121 100–125
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 80 0% 74–85 72–87 70–89 67–92

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.4% 99.7%  
133 0.4% 99.3%  
134 0.6% 98.9%  
135 1.3% 98%  
136 2% 97%  
137 3% 95%  
138 3% 92%  
139 5% 89%  
140 7% 84%  
141 10% 77%  
142 6% 67%  
143 7% 61%  
144 8% 54% Median
145 8% 46%  
146 6% 38%  
147 10% 32%  
148 5% 22%  
149 4% 16%  
150 4% 13%  
151 3% 9%  
152 2% 6%  
153 1.2% 4%  
154 0.9% 3%  
155 1.0% 2%  
156 0.6% 1.2%  
157 0.4% 0.6%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9% Majority
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0.6% 99.2%  
121 1.1% 98.7%  
122 1.3% 98%  
123 3% 96%  
124 3% 93%  
125 5% 91%  
126 6% 86%  
127 7% 80%  
128 6% 73%  
129 8% 67%  
130 9% 59% Median
131 9% 50%  
132 7% 41%  
133 10% 35%  
134 6% 25%  
135 4% 19%  
136 4% 14%  
137 3% 10%  
138 2% 7%  
139 1.4% 5%  
140 1.4% 4%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.7% 2%  
143 0.5% 1.1%  
144 0.2% 0.5%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.3% 99.6%  
114 0.5% 99.2%  
115 0.7% 98.7%  
116 2% 98% Majority
117 2% 96%  
118 3% 94%  
119 3% 92%  
120 5% 88%  
121 6% 83%  
122 6% 77%  
123 10% 71%  
124 9% 61%  
125 6% 52%  
126 7% 46% Median
127 11% 40%  
128 7% 29%  
129 5% 22%  
130 4% 16%  
131 4% 13%  
132 3% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 1.2% 4%  
135 0.8% 3%  
136 0.9% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.3%  
138 0.4% 0.9%  
139 0.3% 0.4%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.7%  
101 0.5% 99.4%  
102 1.0% 98.8%  
103 2% 98%  
104 3% 96%  
105 4% 94%  
106 4% 90%  
107 5% 85%  
108 5% 80%  
109 8% 75%  
110 8% 67%  
111 8% 60%  
112 8% 52% Median
113 12% 44%  
114 8% 32%  
115 6% 24%  
116 4% 17% Majority
117 4% 13%  
118 3% 9%  
119 2% 6%  
120 1.2% 4%  
121 0.6% 3%  
122 0.8% 2%  
123 0.6% 1.5%  
124 0.3% 0.9%  
125 0.3% 0.6%  
126 0.2% 0.4%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.4%  
69 0.9% 98.8%  
70 1.1% 98%  
71 1.2% 97%  
72 2% 96%  
73 3% 94%  
74 4% 91%  
75 4% 87%  
76 6% 83%  
77 10% 78%  
78 7% 68%  
79 7% 61%  
80 9% 53% Median
81 8% 45%  
82 7% 37%  
83 8% 30%  
84 7% 22%  
85 5% 15%  
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 7%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.2% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations