Opinion Poll by Pitagórica for Jornal de Notícias, 8–14 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 43.2% | 41.0–45.5% | 40.4–46.2% | 39.9–46.7% | 38.8–47.8% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 21.6% | 19.8–23.6% | 19.3–24.1% | 18.9–24.6% | 18.1–25.6% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.0–10.7% | 7.7–11.1% | 7.4–11.5% | 6.9–12.2% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.0% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.8–9.4% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.8–7.6% | 4.6–7.9% | 4.1–8.5% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.7–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.2–5.7% |
| Aliança | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.3% | 0.5–2.7% |
| Chega | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.2–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 123 | 116–131 | 116–133 | 114–133 | 114–138 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 60 | 54–66 | 53–66 | 53–68 | 50–71 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 17–22 | 16–24 | 16–24 | 13–25 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 13 | 9–16 | 7–17 | 6–17 | 6–20 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 9 | 6–12 | 6–13 | 6–15 | 5–18 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Aliança | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Chega | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 7% | 96% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 119 | 2% | 87% | |
| 120 | 4% | 86% | |
| 121 | 9% | 82% | |
| 122 | 11% | 73% | |
| 123 | 17% | 62% | Median |
| 124 | 5% | 45% | |
| 125 | 2% | 40% | |
| 126 | 5% | 38% | |
| 127 | 4% | 33% | |
| 128 | 6% | 29% | |
| 129 | 3% | 23% | |
| 130 | 9% | 20% | |
| 131 | 3% | 11% | |
| 132 | 2% | 8% | |
| 133 | 3% | 6% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 6% | 92% | |
| 55 | 3% | 86% | |
| 56 | 2% | 83% | |
| 57 | 3% | 81% | |
| 58 | 5% | 78% | |
| 59 | 18% | 73% | |
| 60 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 61 | 11% | 36% | |
| 62 | 1.5% | 25% | |
| 63 | 3% | 23% | |
| 64 | 2% | 21% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 19% | |
| 66 | 13% | 18% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 69 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 98.6% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98% | |
| 17 | 12% | 93% | |
| 18 | 34% | 81% | Median |
| 19 | 9% | 47% | Last Result |
| 20 | 6% | 38% | |
| 21 | 20% | 32% | |
| 22 | 3% | 12% | |
| 23 | 3% | 9% | |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 2% | 96% | |
| 8 | 2% | 95% | |
| 9 | 12% | 93% | |
| 10 | 2% | 81% | |
| 11 | 6% | 79% | |
| 12 | 3% | 72% | |
| 13 | 31% | 70% | Median |
| 14 | 22% | 39% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 16 | 9% | 17% | |
| 17 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 13% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 22% | 86% | |
| 8 | 11% | 65% | |
| 9 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 44% | |
| 11 | 17% | 30% | |
| 12 | 7% | 12% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 16% | 98.8% | |
| 4 | 30% | 82% | |
| 5 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 6 | 34% | 37% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Aliança
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 5% | |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Chega
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Chega page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 157 | 100% | 149–161 | 148–164 | 148–166 | 144–167 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 144 | 100% | 135–150 | 134–153 | 134–154 | 132–156 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 138 | 100% | 130–143 | 130–144 | 128–146 | 125–149 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 123 | 96% | 116–131 | 116–133 | 114–133 | 114–138 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 68 | 0% | 64–76 | 61–76 | 61–77 | 59–82 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 148 | 7% | 98% | |
| 149 | 7% | 91% | |
| 150 | 2% | 85% | |
| 151 | 2% | 82% | |
| 152 | 4% | 81% | |
| 153 | 4% | 77% | |
| 154 | 3% | 73% | Median |
| 155 | 2% | 69% | |
| 156 | 13% | 68% | |
| 157 | 14% | 55% | |
| 158 | 11% | 41% | |
| 159 | 12% | 30% | |
| 160 | 6% | 18% | |
| 161 | 3% | 12% | |
| 162 | 2% | 10% | |
| 163 | 3% | 8% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 166 | 3% | 4% | |
| 167 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 133 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 134 | 6% | 98% | |
| 135 | 2% | 92% | |
| 136 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 137 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 138 | 5% | 88% | |
| 139 | 5% | 83% | |
| 140 | 12% | 78% | |
| 141 | 7% | 66% | Median |
| 142 | 2% | 60% | |
| 143 | 3% | 58% | |
| 144 | 14% | 55% | |
| 145 | 6% | 41% | |
| 146 | 8% | 35% | |
| 147 | 7% | 28% | |
| 148 | 3% | 21% | |
| 149 | 7% | 18% | |
| 150 | 2% | 11% | |
| 151 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 1.4% | 8% | |
| 153 | 3% | 6% | |
| 154 | 2% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 130 | 7% | 95% | |
| 131 | 2% | 88% | |
| 132 | 8% | 87% | |
| 133 | 4% | 79% | |
| 134 | 4% | 75% | |
| 135 | 6% | 71% | |
| 136 | 10% | 65% | Median |
| 137 | 2% | 54% | |
| 138 | 14% | 53% | |
| 139 | 8% | 39% | |
| 140 | 6% | 30% | |
| 141 | 13% | 25% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 143 | 5% | 11% | |
| 144 | 2% | 7% | |
| 145 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 146 | 2% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 148 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 7% | 96% | Majority |
| 117 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 119 | 2% | 87% | |
| 120 | 4% | 86% | |
| 121 | 9% | 82% | |
| 122 | 11% | 73% | |
| 123 | 17% | 62% | Median |
| 124 | 5% | 45% | |
| 125 | 2% | 40% | |
| 126 | 5% | 38% | |
| 127 | 4% | 33% | |
| 128 | 6% | 29% | |
| 129 | 3% | 23% | |
| 130 | 9% | 20% | |
| 131 | 3% | 11% | |
| 132 | 2% | 8% | |
| 133 | 3% | 6% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 137 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 61 | 4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 63 | 2% | 93% | |
| 64 | 8% | 91% | |
| 65 | 2% | 83% | |
| 66 | 4% | 81% | |
| 67 | 17% | 77% | |
| 68 | 15% | 60% | |
| 69 | 6% | 45% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 39% | |
| 71 | 1.3% | 29% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 73 | 5% | 27% | |
| 74 | 2% | 22% | |
| 75 | 10% | 20% | |
| 76 | 8% | 11% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 82 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Pitagórica
- Commissioner(s): Jornal de Notícias
- Fieldwork period: 8–14 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.25%