Opinion Poll by Aximage for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 12–15 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 37.4% | 34.9–40.0% | 34.3–40.8% | 33.7–41.4% | 32.5–42.6% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 23.6% | 21.5–26.0% | 20.9–26.6% | 20.4–27.2% | 19.4–28.3% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.6–11.5% | 7.2–11.9% | 6.6–12.8% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.7% | 5.1–9.1% | 4.6–9.9% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 4.8% | 3.9–6.1% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.4–6.9% | 3.0–7.5% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 4.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.6% | 2.7–5.9% | 2.3–6.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 105–121 | 103–124 | 102–126 | 99–130 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 70 | 61–77 | 59–79 | 58–81 | 55–84 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 20 | 17–25 | 16–26 | 15–27 | 12–29 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 14 | 9–18 | 8–19 | 7–20 | 6–21 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 7 | 5–10 | 4–11 | 4–12 | 2–15 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 6 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 2–13 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 3% | 92% | |
| 106 | 3% | 89% | |
| 107 | 4% | 86% | |
| 108 | 4% | 82% | |
| 109 | 5% | 79% | |
| 110 | 5% | 74% | |
| 111 | 6% | 69% | |
| 112 | 8% | 63% | |
| 113 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 114 | 7% | 49% | |
| 115 | 8% | 42% | |
| 116 | 7% | 35% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 28% | |
| 118 | 4% | 23% | |
| 119 | 4% | 19% | |
| 120 | 3% | 15% | |
| 121 | 2% | 12% | |
| 122 | 2% | 9% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 124 | 2% | 6% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 97% | |
| 60 | 3% | 94% | |
| 61 | 2% | 91% | |
| 62 | 2% | 89% | |
| 63 | 3% | 86% | |
| 64 | 3% | 83% | |
| 65 | 4% | 80% | |
| 66 | 5% | 76% | |
| 67 | 8% | 72% | |
| 68 | 7% | 64% | |
| 69 | 7% | 57% | |
| 70 | 7% | 51% | Median |
| 71 | 6% | 44% | |
| 72 | 6% | 38% | |
| 73 | 5% | 32% | |
| 74 | 7% | 27% | |
| 75 | 4% | 20% | |
| 76 | 4% | 16% | |
| 77 | 3% | 12% | |
| 78 | 3% | 9% | |
| 79 | 2% | 6% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 98% | |
| 16 | 2% | 95% | |
| 17 | 12% | 93% | |
| 18 | 16% | 81% | |
| 19 | 9% | 65% | Last Result |
| 20 | 14% | 57% | Median |
| 21 | 9% | 43% | |
| 22 | 6% | 34% | |
| 23 | 6% | 27% | |
| 24 | 9% | 21% | |
| 25 | 7% | 12% | |
| 26 | 2% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 2% | 98% | |
| 8 | 4% | 97% | |
| 9 | 6% | 93% | |
| 10 | 4% | 87% | |
| 11 | 4% | 83% | |
| 12 | 5% | 79% | |
| 13 | 16% | 74% | |
| 14 | 27% | 58% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 31% | |
| 16 | 4% | 27% | |
| 17 | 11% | 23% | Last Result |
| 18 | 6% | 12% | |
| 19 | 3% | 6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 6% | 98% | |
| 5 | 3% | 91% | |
| 6 | 28% | 89% | |
| 7 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 23% | 43% | |
| 9 | 5% | 20% | |
| 10 | 8% | 15% | |
| 11 | 4% | 7% | |
| 12 | 2% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 98.9% | |
| 4 | 22% | 92% | |
| 5 | 5% | 70% | |
| 6 | 50% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 4% | 15% | |
| 8 | 6% | 11% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 147 | 100% | 140–156 | 138–158 | 136–159 | 133–162 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 134 | 99.9% | 126–142 | 124–144 | 122–146 | 118–150 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 127 | 98% | 119–135 | 117–138 | 116–139 | 112–142 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 35% | 105–121 | 103–124 | 102–126 | 99–130 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 77 | 0% | 68–84 | 66–86 | 65–88 | 62–92 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 137 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 138 | 2% | 96% | |
| 139 | 2% | 94% | |
| 140 | 4% | 91% | |
| 141 | 4% | 87% | |
| 142 | 5% | 83% | |
| 143 | 5% | 78% | |
| 144 | 6% | 73% | |
| 145 | 5% | 67% | |
| 146 | 7% | 62% | |
| 147 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 148 | 7% | 49% | |
| 149 | 6% | 42% | |
| 150 | 5% | 36% | |
| 151 | 5% | 31% | |
| 152 | 4% | 25% | |
| 153 | 4% | 21% | |
| 154 | 3% | 17% | |
| 155 | 3% | 14% | |
| 156 | 3% | 11% | |
| 157 | 2% | 8% | |
| 158 | 2% | 5% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 121 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 123 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 124 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 125 | 2% | 94% | |
| 126 | 3% | 92% | |
| 127 | 5% | 89% | |
| 128 | 5% | 84% | |
| 129 | 5% | 79% | |
| 130 | 6% | 74% | |
| 131 | 5% | 68% | |
| 132 | 7% | 63% | |
| 133 | 6% | 56% | Median |
| 134 | 6% | 51% | |
| 135 | 7% | 45% | |
| 136 | 6% | 38% | |
| 137 | 5% | 32% | |
| 138 | 5% | 27% | |
| 139 | 4% | 22% | |
| 140 | 4% | 18% | |
| 141 | 3% | 14% | |
| 142 | 3% | 11% | |
| 143 | 3% | 9% | |
| 144 | 2% | 6% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 149 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 116 | 1.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 117 | 2% | 97% | |
| 118 | 3% | 95% | |
| 119 | 3% | 92% | |
| 120 | 4% | 89% | |
| 121 | 4% | 85% | |
| 122 | 4% | 81% | |
| 123 | 6% | 77% | |
| 124 | 6% | 71% | |
| 125 | 6% | 65% | |
| 126 | 7% | 59% | |
| 127 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 128 | 6% | 46% | |
| 129 | 6% | 40% | |
| 130 | 6% | 34% | |
| 131 | 4% | 28% | |
| 132 | 4% | 24% | |
| 133 | 4% | 20% | |
| 134 | 4% | 17% | |
| 135 | 3% | 12% | |
| 136 | 3% | 10% | |
| 137 | 2% | 7% | |
| 138 | 2% | 5% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 99 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 102 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 103 | 2% | 97% | |
| 104 | 2% | 95% | |
| 105 | 3% | 92% | |
| 106 | 3% | 89% | |
| 107 | 4% | 86% | |
| 108 | 4% | 82% | |
| 109 | 5% | 79% | |
| 110 | 5% | 74% | |
| 111 | 6% | 69% | |
| 112 | 8% | 63% | |
| 113 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 114 | 7% | 49% | |
| 115 | 8% | 42% | |
| 116 | 7% | 35% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 28% | |
| 118 | 4% | 23% | |
| 119 | 4% | 19% | |
| 120 | 3% | 15% | |
| 121 | 2% | 12% | |
| 122 | 2% | 9% | |
| 123 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 124 | 2% | 6% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 128 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 130 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 2% | 97% | |
| 67 | 3% | 95% | |
| 68 | 3% | 92% | |
| 69 | 3% | 90% | |
| 70 | 3% | 87% | |
| 71 | 4% | 84% | |
| 72 | 3% | 80% | |
| 73 | 4% | 77% | |
| 74 | 6% | 73% | |
| 75 | 6% | 67% | |
| 76 | 7% | 61% | |
| 77 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 78 | 7% | 47% | |
| 79 | 5% | 39% | |
| 80 | 5% | 34% | |
| 81 | 5% | 29% | |
| 82 | 6% | 24% | |
| 83 | 4% | 18% | |
| 84 | 4% | 13% | |
| 85 | 3% | 10% | |
| 86 | 2% | 7% | |
| 87 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 88 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 89 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 90 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 91 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 92 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 94 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Aximage
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã and Negócios
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 601
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.64%