Opinion Poll by Multidados for TVI, 18–28 July 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 35.5% 33.4–37.7% 32.8–38.3% 32.3–38.9% 31.2–40.0%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 20.2% 18.5–22.2% 18.0–22.7% 17.6–23.2% 16.8–24.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 14.8% 13.2–16.5% 12.8–17.0% 12.5–17.4% 11.8–18.2%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 7.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.5–9.6% 6.2–10.0% 5.7–10.6%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 5.6% 4.7–6.8% 4.5–7.1% 4.2–7.5% 3.8–8.1%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 106 99–113 98–115 97–116 94–120
Partido Social Democrata 89 57 52–64 51–66 50–68 49–70
Bloco de Esquerda 19 38 29–41 28–42 28–44 26–48
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 17 13–19 11–20 10–22 9–23
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 9 7–13 5–13 5–13 4–17
CDS–Partido Popular 18 3 2–6 2–6 2–6 0–8

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 0.5% 99.2%  
96 0.7% 98.8%  
97 2% 98%  
98 4% 96%  
99 5% 92%  
100 4% 87%  
101 5% 84%  
102 5% 79%  
103 7% 73%  
104 8% 67%  
105 8% 58%  
106 6% 51% Median
107 7% 45%  
108 6% 38%  
109 6% 32%  
110 6% 26%  
111 4% 20%  
112 4% 16%  
113 3% 12%  
114 3% 9%  
115 2% 6%  
116 2% 4% Majority
117 0.8% 2%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.5%  
50 2% 99.0%  
51 4% 97%  
52 3% 93%  
53 4% 90%  
54 8% 85%  
55 11% 77%  
56 15% 66%  
57 7% 51% Median
58 5% 44%  
59 6% 39%  
60 5% 32%  
61 6% 27%  
62 6% 22%  
63 6% 16%  
64 3% 10%  
65 2% 7%  
66 1.2% 5%  
67 1.2% 4%  
68 1.0% 3%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.5% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.5% 99.4%  
28 6% 98.9%  
29 4% 92%  
30 3% 89%  
31 4% 86%  
32 3% 82%  
33 3% 79%  
34 4% 76%  
35 5% 72%  
36 12% 67%  
37 3% 54%  
38 22% 51% Median
39 6% 29%  
40 11% 22%  
41 5% 11%  
42 2% 6%  
43 1.3% 4%  
44 0.7% 3%  
45 0.4% 2%  
46 0.5% 1.5%  
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.3% 0.6%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 2% 98%  
11 1.2% 96%  
12 2% 95%  
13 5% 93%  
14 10% 88%  
15 12% 79%  
16 12% 67%  
17 25% 55% Median
18 19% 30%  
19 4% 11%  
20 3% 7%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.6% 100%  
5 6% 99.4%  
6 3% 94%  
7 15% 90%  
8 8% 75%  
9 26% 67% Median
10 9% 41%  
11 4% 32%  
12 5% 28%  
13 21% 23%  
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.3% 1.2%  
16 0.3% 0.9%  
17 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0.2% 99.4%  
2 34% 99.2%  
3 18% 65% Median
4 30% 48%  
5 3% 18%  
6 13% 15%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 152 100% 145–157 144–159 142–160 139–163
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 142 100% 135–148 134–150 132–152 129–155
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 115 49% 109–123 107–124 106–126 103–129
Partido Socialista 86 106 4% 99–113 98–115 97–116 94–120
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 61 0% 56–67 54–69 53–71 52–74

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.9%  
138 0.2% 99.8%  
139 0.3% 99.7%  
140 0.4% 99.4%  
141 0.7% 99.0%  
142 1.2% 98%  
143 1.3% 97%  
144 2% 96%  
145 3% 93%  
146 4% 90%  
147 5% 86%  
148 5% 81%  
149 6% 76%  
150 6% 70%  
151 9% 64%  
152 9% 55%  
153 9% 46% Median
154 8% 37%  
155 7% 29%  
156 6% 22%  
157 5% 15%  
158 4% 10%  
159 2% 6%  
160 1.4% 3%  
161 0.9% 2%  
162 0.5% 1.2%  
163 0.3% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.4%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.9%  
129 0.3% 99.7%  
130 0.4% 99.4%  
131 0.6% 99.0%  
132 0.9% 98%  
133 2% 97%  
134 2% 96%  
135 4% 94%  
136 3% 90%  
137 4% 87%  
138 6% 82%  
139 7% 77%  
140 6% 70%  
141 7% 64%  
142 8% 57%  
143 7% 49%  
144 8% 41% Median
145 7% 33%  
146 5% 26%  
147 6% 21%  
148 5% 15%  
149 3% 10%  
150 3% 7%  
151 2% 5%  
152 1.0% 3%  
153 0.5% 2%  
154 0.5% 1.0%  
155 0.2% 0.6%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
104 0.6% 99.4%  
105 0.7% 98.7%  
106 2% 98%  
107 2% 96%  
108 3% 94%  
109 4% 92%  
110 5% 88%  
111 5% 82%  
112 6% 77%  
113 6% 71%  
114 8% 64%  
115 7% 56% Median
116 7% 49% Majority
117 8% 42%  
118 6% 34%  
119 5% 28%  
120 4% 23%  
121 5% 19%  
122 3% 13%  
123 4% 10%  
124 2% 6%  
125 1.5% 4%  
126 0.9% 3%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.5% 1.2%  
129 0.2% 0.7%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 0.5% 99.2%  
96 0.7% 98.8%  
97 2% 98%  
98 4% 96%  
99 5% 92%  
100 4% 87%  
101 5% 84%  
102 5% 79%  
103 7% 73%  
104 8% 67%  
105 8% 58%  
106 6% 51% Median
107 7% 45%  
108 6% 38%  
109 6% 32%  
110 6% 26%  
111 4% 20%  
112 4% 16%  
113 3% 12%  
114 3% 9%  
115 2% 6%  
116 2% 4% Majority
117 0.8% 2%  
118 0.7% 2%  
119 0.3% 1.0%  
120 0.2% 0.6%  
121 0.1% 0.4%  
122 0.1% 0.3%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.8%  
51 0.2% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 2% 99.0%  
54 3% 97%  
55 3% 94%  
56 4% 92%  
57 9% 87%  
58 11% 79%  
59 8% 68%  
60 9% 60% Median
61 7% 51%  
62 7% 44%  
63 6% 37%  
64 7% 30%  
65 6% 23%  
66 4% 17%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 1.4% 5%  
71 1.1% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.8% 1.5%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations