Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Associação Mutualista Montepio, 1–5 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 38.1% | 36.1–40.0% | 35.6–40.6% | 35.1–41.1% | 34.2–42.0% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 23.3% | 21.6–25.1% | 21.2–25.5% | 20.8–26.0% | 20.0–26.8% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.9–7.3% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.5–5.6% | 3.3–5.9% | 3.0–6.3% |
| Aliança | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 108–120 | 106–122 | 105–124 | 102–127 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 68 | 61–73 | 59–74 | 59–75 | 56–78 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 15–24 | 13–26 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 14 | 10–17 | 9–18 | 9–19 | 7–20 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 10 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–15 | 6–18 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 3–11 |
| Aliança | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 | 0–2 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98% | |
| 106 | 2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 94% | |
| 108 | 4% | 91% | |
| 109 | 4% | 87% | |
| 110 | 5% | 83% | |
| 111 | 7% | 78% | |
| 112 | 9% | 71% | |
| 113 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 114 | 10% | 49% | |
| 115 | 10% | 39% | |
| 116 | 6% | 30% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 24% | |
| 118 | 4% | 19% | |
| 119 | 4% | 15% | |
| 120 | 2% | 11% | |
| 121 | 2% | 9% | |
| 122 | 2% | 6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 5% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 5% | 91% | |
| 62 | 4% | 86% | |
| 63 | 4% | 82% | |
| 64 | 4% | 78% | |
| 65 | 5% | 74% | |
| 66 | 7% | 70% | |
| 67 | 10% | 62% | |
| 68 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 69 | 14% | 43% | |
| 70 | 6% | 30% | |
| 71 | 7% | 23% | |
| 72 | 4% | 17% | |
| 73 | 4% | 13% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 76 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98% | |
| 16 | 4% | 95% | |
| 17 | 18% | 91% | |
| 18 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 19 | 10% | 47% | Last Result |
| 20 | 16% | 37% | |
| 21 | 7% | 21% | |
| 22 | 4% | 14% | |
| 23 | 4% | 10% | |
| 24 | 5% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 4% | 98% | |
| 10 | 5% | 94% | |
| 11 | 3% | 89% | |
| 12 | 6% | 86% | |
| 13 | 14% | 81% | |
| 14 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 15 | 4% | 23% | |
| 16 | 4% | 19% | |
| 17 | 8% | 15% | Last Result |
| 18 | 5% | 7% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 7% | 97% | |
| 8 | 30% | 90% | |
| 9 | 10% | 60% | |
| 10 | 20% | 50% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 31% | |
| 12 | 12% | 20% | |
| 13 | 3% | 8% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 15 | 2% | 4% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 5% | 88% | |
| 6 | 62% | 83% | Median |
| 7 | 9% | 21% | |
| 8 | 8% | 13% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Aliança
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Aliança page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 76% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 24% | |
| 2 | 19% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 146 | 100% | 140–154 | 139–155 | 137–156 | 135–158 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 132 | 100% | 127–140 | 125–142 | 124–143 | 121–146 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 127 | 99.5% | 121–134 | 120–136 | 118–138 | 116–140 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 30% | 108–120 | 106–122 | 105–124 | 102–127 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 78 | 0% | 70–82 | 68–84 | 67–86 | 66–88 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 136 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 137 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 2% | 97% | |
| 139 | 3% | 96% | |
| 140 | 4% | 93% | |
| 141 | 4% | 90% | |
| 142 | 5% | 85% | |
| 143 | 6% | 81% | |
| 144 | 8% | 75% | |
| 145 | 12% | 67% | Median |
| 146 | 9% | 55% | |
| 147 | 9% | 47% | |
| 148 | 9% | 38% | |
| 149 | 5% | 29% | |
| 150 | 4% | 24% | |
| 151 | 3% | 19% | |
| 152 | 3% | 16% | |
| 153 | 3% | 13% | |
| 154 | 4% | 11% | |
| 155 | 2% | 7% | |
| 156 | 2% | 5% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 123 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 124 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 125 | 2% | 96% | |
| 126 | 3% | 94% | |
| 127 | 5% | 91% | |
| 128 | 4% | 86% | |
| 129 | 6% | 83% | |
| 130 | 9% | 77% | |
| 131 | 12% | 68% | Median |
| 132 | 9% | 56% | |
| 133 | 8% | 47% | |
| 134 | 8% | 38% | |
| 135 | 6% | 31% | |
| 136 | 5% | 25% | |
| 137 | 4% | 20% | |
| 138 | 3% | 16% | |
| 139 | 3% | 14% | |
| 140 | 3% | 10% | |
| 141 | 2% | 7% | |
| 142 | 2% | 5% | |
| 143 | 2% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 119 | 2% | 97% | |
| 120 | 2% | 96% | |
| 121 | 4% | 93% | |
| 122 | 4% | 89% | |
| 123 | 5% | 85% | |
| 124 | 5% | 80% | |
| 125 | 6% | 75% | |
| 126 | 7% | 68% | |
| 127 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 128 | 9% | 48% | |
| 129 | 9% | 39% | |
| 130 | 5% | 30% | |
| 131 | 5% | 24% | |
| 132 | 5% | 20% | |
| 133 | 2% | 15% | |
| 134 | 4% | 12% | |
| 135 | 2% | 9% | |
| 136 | 2% | 7% | |
| 137 | 2% | 5% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 1.1% | 98.7% | |
| 105 | 2% | 98% | |
| 106 | 2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 94% | |
| 108 | 4% | 91% | |
| 109 | 4% | 87% | |
| 110 | 5% | 83% | |
| 111 | 7% | 78% | |
| 112 | 9% | 71% | |
| 113 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 114 | 10% | 49% | |
| 115 | 10% | 39% | |
| 116 | 6% | 30% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 24% | |
| 118 | 4% | 19% | |
| 119 | 4% | 15% | |
| 120 | 2% | 11% | |
| 121 | 2% | 9% | |
| 122 | 2% | 6% | |
| 123 | 2% | 5% | |
| 124 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | |
| 69 | 3% | 95% | |
| 70 | 5% | 92% | |
| 71 | 3% | 87% | |
| 72 | 3% | 84% | |
| 73 | 5% | 81% | |
| 74 | 4% | 77% | |
| 75 | 4% | 73% | |
| 76 | 8% | 69% | |
| 77 | 9% | 61% | |
| 78 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 79 | 14% | 42% | |
| 80 | 7% | 27% | |
| 81 | 6% | 21% | |
| 82 | 5% | 14% | |
| 83 | 3% | 10% | |
| 84 | 2% | 7% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eurosondagem
- Commissioner(s): Associação Mutualista Montepio
- Fieldwork period: 1–5 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1022
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.38%