Opinion Poll by Aximage, 1–8 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 38.4% 36.4–40.4% 35.9–41.0% 35.4–41.5% 34.5–42.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.3% 17.5–24.1%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.2% 7.9–12.9%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 121 114–128 112–130 111–131 108–134
Partido Social Democrata 89 60 56–68 55–69 54–70 51–73
Bloco de Esquerda 19 24 20–27 19–28 18–28 17–31
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 9 6–13 5–13 5–14 5–16
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 7 6–9 6–11 6–12 4–15
CDS–Partido Popular 18 7 5–8 4–10 4–11 3–12

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.4% 99.4%  
110 0.7% 99.0%  
111 0.9% 98%  
112 3% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 89%  
116 4% 86% Majority
117 5% 82%  
118 5% 76%  
119 9% 72%  
120 7% 63%  
121 7% 56% Median
122 9% 49%  
123 5% 41%  
124 6% 36%  
125 8% 30%  
126 4% 22%  
127 6% 18%  
128 3% 12%  
129 3% 9%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.5% 4%  
132 1.0% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.1%  
134 0.3% 0.6%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 0.6% 99.4%  
53 1.0% 98.9%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 96%  
56 8% 92%  
57 10% 84%  
58 9% 74%  
59 12% 65%  
60 13% 53% Median
61 5% 40%  
62 4% 35%  
63 4% 31%  
64 6% 28%  
65 2% 21%  
66 3% 20%  
67 5% 17%  
68 3% 12%  
69 4% 9%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.4%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 2% 98.8%  
19 4% 97% Last Result
20 13% 93%  
21 7% 80%  
22 9% 73%  
23 10% 64%  
24 22% 54% Median
25 14% 32%  
26 5% 18%  
27 4% 13%  
28 7% 9%  
29 1.0% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.9%  
31 0.3% 0.6%  
32 0.1% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 15% 95%  
7 7% 80%  
8 20% 74%  
9 12% 54% Median
10 5% 42%  
11 7% 37%  
12 3% 30%  
13 23% 27%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.3% 1.0%  
16 0.2% 0.7%  
17 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 1.4% 100%  
5 0.8% 98.5%  
6 40% 98%  
7 12% 57% Median
8 20% 46%  
9 19% 26%  
10 2% 7%  
11 2% 5%  
12 2% 4%  
13 0.6% 2%  
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0.5% 99.7%  
4 6% 99.2%  
5 4% 93%  
6 31% 90%  
7 26% 59% Median
8 24% 33%  
9 4% 9%  
10 2% 5%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.7%  
13 0.1% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 154 100% 147–160 146–161 144–162 141–164
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 145 100% 137–151 136–153 135–154 132–157
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 132 99.9% 124–137 122–138 121–140 118–142
Partido Socialista 86 121 86% 114–128 112–130 111–131 108–134
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 67 0% 62–75 62–77 61–78 58–80

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0.1% 99.9%  
140 0.2% 99.8%  
141 0.3% 99.6%  
142 0.3% 99.3%  
143 0.5% 99.0%  
144 1.4% 98.6%  
145 2% 97%  
146 3% 95%  
147 3% 92%  
148 4% 90%  
149 5% 85%  
150 2% 80%  
151 4% 78%  
152 6% 74%  
153 9% 68%  
154 10% 60% Median
155 6% 50%  
156 9% 44%  
157 9% 36%  
158 8% 27%  
159 7% 19%  
160 4% 12%  
161 4% 7%  
162 2% 4%  
163 0.8% 2%  
164 0.5% 1.0%  
165 0.3% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100% Majority
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0.1% 100%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.4% 99.5%  
133 0.6% 99.2%  
134 0.9% 98.6%  
135 2% 98%  
136 3% 96%  
137 3% 93%  
138 3% 90%  
139 3% 87%  
140 6% 84%  
141 7% 78%  
142 5% 71%  
143 8% 66%  
144 5% 59%  
145 9% 53% Median
146 5% 44%  
147 6% 39%  
148 7% 33%  
149 8% 26%  
150 4% 18%  
151 4% 14%  
152 3% 10%  
153 2% 7%  
154 2% 5%  
155 1.1% 2%  
156 0.6% 1.2%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9% Majority
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.5%  
119 0.6% 99.2%  
120 0.6% 98.6%  
121 2% 98%  
122 3% 96%  
123 3% 93%  
124 4% 90%  
125 2% 87%  
126 4% 84%  
127 4% 81%  
128 6% 76%  
129 6% 71%  
130 6% 65% Median
131 8% 59%  
132 11% 51%  
133 10% 39%  
134 8% 30%  
135 7% 22%  
136 4% 14%  
137 3% 10%  
138 2% 7%  
139 2% 5%  
140 1.2% 3%  
141 0.9% 2%  
142 0.4% 0.7%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.4% 99.4%  
110 0.7% 99.0%  
111 0.9% 98%  
112 3% 97%  
113 2% 95%  
114 3% 92%  
115 3% 89%  
116 4% 86% Majority
117 5% 82%  
118 5% 76%  
119 9% 72%  
120 7% 63%  
121 7% 56% Median
122 9% 49%  
123 5% 41%  
124 6% 36%  
125 8% 30%  
126 4% 22%  
127 6% 18%  
128 3% 12%  
129 3% 9%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.5% 4%  
132 1.0% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.1%  
134 0.3% 0.6%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 1.1% 98.7%  
61 2% 98%  
62 7% 96%  
63 10% 89%  
64 6% 79%  
65 9% 73%  
66 10% 64%  
67 11% 53% Median
68 6% 42%  
69 4% 36%  
70 6% 32%  
71 5% 26%  
72 3% 22%  
73 3% 19%  
74 4% 16%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations