Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 2–11 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 32.3% 38.0% 35.8–40.2% 35.2–40.8% 34.6–41.4% 33.6–42.4%
Partido Social Democrata 36.9% 23.6% 21.7–25.6% 21.2–26.2% 20.8–26.7% 19.9–27.6%
Bloco de Esquerda 10.2% 9.7% 8.5–11.2% 8.2–11.6% 7.9–12.0% 7.3–12.7%
Coligação Democrática Unitária 8.2% 8.6% 7.5–10.0% 7.1–10.4% 6.9–10.8% 6.3–11.5%
CDS–Partido Popular 36.9% 6.2% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.8% 4.8–8.1% 4.3–8.8%
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.4% 4.1–6.7% 3.9–7.0% 3.5–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista 86 110 103–116 101–118 100–120 97–123
Partido Social Democrata 89 66 59–73 57–74 56–75 55–78
Bloco de Esquerda 19 20 17–24 16–25 15–26 14–28
Coligação Democrática Unitária 17 18 14–20 13–21 13–22 11–24
CDS–Partido Popular 18 10 8–13 7–15 6–17 6–18
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza 1 6 6–10 6–12 5–13 4–14

Partido Socialista

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.4%  
99 1.1% 98.7%  
100 1.3% 98%  
101 2% 96%  
102 3% 94%  
103 5% 92%  
104 4% 87%  
105 5% 83%  
106 6% 78%  
107 6% 72%  
108 7% 66%  
109 7% 59%  
110 8% 52% Median
111 8% 44%  
112 7% 36%  
113 7% 29%  
114 4% 22%  
115 5% 18%  
116 4% 13% Majority
117 3% 10%  
118 2% 7%  
119 2% 5%  
120 1.0% 3%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.2%  
123 0.3% 0.8%  
124 0.3% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.5%  
56 2% 98.6%  
57 2% 96%  
58 2% 94%  
59 3% 93%  
60 5% 89%  
61 8% 84%  
62 5% 76%  
63 9% 71%  
64 6% 62%  
65 6% 57%  
66 8% 50% Median
67 7% 42%  
68 8% 35%  
69 4% 28%  
70 3% 23%  
71 6% 20%  
72 4% 14%  
73 4% 10%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.2% 3%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.2%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Bloco de Esquerda

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.1% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.8%  
13 0.2% 99.7%  
14 0.6% 99.5%  
15 1.5% 99.0%  
16 3% 97%  
17 13% 95%  
18 14% 81%  
19 15% 68% Last Result
20 17% 53% Median
21 12% 36%  
22 4% 24%  
23 8% 20%  
24 6% 12%  
25 2% 5%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.5% 1.4%  
28 0.8% 0.8%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Coligação Democrática Unitária

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 99.9%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.2% 99.6%  
12 0.4% 99.5%  
13 6% 99.0%  
14 14% 93%  
15 3% 79%  
16 4% 76%  
17 21% 72% Last Result
18 12% 51% Median
19 21% 39%  
20 12% 18%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.4%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 0.1% 99.8%  
6 3% 99.8%  
7 6% 97%  
8 30% 91%  
9 8% 62%  
10 14% 54% Median
11 18% 39%  
12 9% 21%  
13 3% 12%  
14 3% 9%  
15 2% 7%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.1% 3%  
18 1.1% 2% Last Result
19 0.3% 0.4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Pessoas–Animais–Natureza

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 2% 99.8%  
5 1.4% 98%  
6 48% 96% Median
7 6% 49%  
8 17% 43%  
9 15% 25%  
10 4% 11%  
11 2% 7%  
12 1.4% 5%  
13 2% 4%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.4%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária 122 147 100% 140–155 138–156 137–157 134–160
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda 105 130 99.7% 122–137 121–138 119–140 116–143
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária 103 127 98.8% 120–134 118–136 117–138 114–140
Partido Socialista 86 110 13% 103–116 101–118 100–120 97–123
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular 107 76 0% 69–82 67–84 66–85 63–88

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100% Last Result
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.2% 99.8%  
134 0.3% 99.6%  
135 0.5% 99.3%  
136 0.9% 98.8%  
137 1.4% 98%  
138 3% 97%  
139 3% 94%  
140 3% 91%  
141 4% 88%  
142 6% 84%  
143 6% 78%  
144 4% 72%  
145 6% 68%  
146 8% 62%  
147 8% 54%  
148 7% 45% Median
149 5% 38%  
150 7% 33%  
151 5% 26%  
152 4% 21%  
153 4% 17%  
154 3% 13%  
155 4% 10%  
156 2% 6%  
157 2% 4%  
158 0.8% 2%  
159 0.5% 1.1%  
160 0.3% 0.5%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100% Last Result
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.7% Majority
117 0.5% 99.4%  
118 0.7% 98.9%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 1.5% 97%  
121 3% 96%  
122 3% 93%  
123 3% 90%  
124 4% 86%  
125 6% 82%  
126 5% 77%  
127 5% 72%  
128 6% 66%  
129 8% 60%  
130 8% 51% Median
131 7% 43%  
132 6% 36%  
133 7% 30%  
134 5% 24%  
135 4% 18%  
136 4% 15%  
137 4% 10%  
138 2% 7%  
139 1.5% 5%  
140 1.2% 3%  
141 0.9% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.0%  
143 0.3% 0.6%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100% Last Result
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.6%  
115 0.5% 99.4%  
116 0.9% 98.8% Majority
117 1.3% 98%  
118 2% 97%  
119 2% 95%  
120 4% 92%  
121 4% 88%  
122 5% 84%  
123 5% 79%  
124 6% 73%  
125 7% 67%  
126 7% 61%  
127 8% 53%  
128 7% 46% Median
129 6% 39%  
130 8% 33%  
131 5% 26%  
132 4% 21%  
133 3% 17%  
134 4% 13%  
135 3% 10%  
136 2% 6%  
137 2% 4%  
138 1.4% 3%  
139 0.6% 1.3%  
140 0.3% 0.7%  
141 0.2% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Partido Socialista

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100% Last Result
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.4%  
99 1.1% 98.7%  
100 1.3% 98%  
101 2% 96%  
102 3% 94%  
103 5% 92%  
104 4% 87%  
105 5% 83%  
106 6% 78%  
107 6% 72%  
108 7% 66%  
109 7% 59%  
110 8% 52% Median
111 8% 44%  
112 7% 36%  
113 7% 29%  
114 4% 22%  
115 5% 18%  
116 4% 13% Majority
117 3% 10%  
118 2% 7%  
119 2% 5%  
120 1.0% 3%  
121 0.6% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.2%  
123 0.3% 0.8%  
124 0.3% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.4%  
65 1.1% 98.6%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 3% 93%  
69 5% 90%  
70 3% 85%  
71 5% 82%  
72 6% 77%  
73 5% 71%  
74 8% 66%  
75 7% 59%  
76 9% 52% Median
77 8% 43%  
78 6% 35%  
79 6% 29%  
80 4% 24%  
81 6% 20%  
82 4% 14%  
83 3% 10%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 4%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0%  
95 0% 0%  
96 0% 0%  
97 0% 0%  
98 0% 0%  
99 0% 0%  
100 0% 0%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations