Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem, 7–12 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 38.3% | 36.9–39.7% | 36.5–40.1% | 36.2–40.4% | 35.5–41.1% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 23.3% | 22.1–24.5% | 21.8–24.9% | 21.5–25.2% | 21.0–25.8% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.7–10.4% | 8.5–10.7% | 8.3–10.9% | 8.0–11.3% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.7–8.7% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 5.5% | 4.9–6.2% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.3–7.0% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.1% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 114 | 110–118 | 109–120 | 107–121 | 105–124 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 67 | 63–71 | 61–72 | 60–74 | 59–75 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 20 | 18–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 14 | 13–17 | 11–17 | 10–18 | 9–19 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 6 | 6–7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 109 | 3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 5% | 89% | |
| 112 | 9% | 83% | |
| 113 | 13% | 74% | |
| 114 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 115 | 17% | 48% | |
| 116 | 10% | 31% | Majority |
| 117 | 8% | 21% | |
| 118 | 5% | 14% | |
| 119 | 4% | 9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 4% | 95% | |
| 63 | 5% | 90% | |
| 64 | 6% | 85% | |
| 65 | 6% | 79% | |
| 66 | 8% | 73% | |
| 67 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 68 | 16% | 44% | |
| 69 | 12% | 29% | |
| 70 | 5% | 16% | |
| 71 | 3% | 12% | |
| 72 | 3% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 16% | 95% | |
| 19 | 10% | 79% | Last Result |
| 20 | 33% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 17% | 36% | |
| 22 | 6% | 19% | |
| 23 | 6% | 13% | |
| 24 | 5% | 7% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 2% | 97% | |
| 12 | 3% | 95% | |
| 13 | 16% | 92% | |
| 14 | 56% | 76% | Median |
| 15 | 5% | 20% | |
| 16 | 3% | 15% | |
| 17 | 9% | 12% | Last Result |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 17% | 96% | |
| 8 | 52% | 80% | Median |
| 9 | 8% | 28% | |
| 10 | 15% | 19% | |
| 11 | 3% | 4% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 97% | |
| 6 | 79% | 94% | Median |
| 7 | 8% | 15% | |
| 8 | 6% | 7% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 148 | 100% | 144–153 | 143–154 | 142–156 | 140–157 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 134 | 100% | 130–139 | 128–140 | 127–141 | 126–143 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 129 | 100% | 124–133 | 123–134 | 122–135 | 119–138 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 114 | 31% | 110–118 | 109–120 | 107–121 | 105–124 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 75 | 0% | 71–79 | 69–81 | 68–82 | 67–84 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 142 | 2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 2% | 96% | |
| 144 | 4% | 94% | |
| 145 | 6% | 89% | |
| 146 | 8% | 84% | |
| 147 | 14% | 76% | |
| 148 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 149 | 15% | 49% | |
| 150 | 9% | 35% | |
| 151 | 7% | 25% | |
| 152 | 6% | 19% | |
| 153 | 4% | 13% | |
| 154 | 4% | 9% | |
| 155 | 2% | 5% | |
| 156 | 2% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 127 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 128 | 2% | 97% | |
| 129 | 2% | 95% | |
| 130 | 4% | 93% | |
| 131 | 6% | 89% | |
| 132 | 7% | 83% | |
| 133 | 14% | 76% | |
| 134 | 13% | 62% | Median |
| 135 | 15% | 49% | |
| 136 | 9% | 34% | |
| 137 | 7% | 25% | |
| 138 | 5% | 17% | |
| 139 | 4% | 12% | |
| 140 | 3% | 8% | |
| 141 | 2% | 4% | |
| 142 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 122 | 2% | 98% | |
| 123 | 3% | 96% | |
| 124 | 6% | 93% | |
| 125 | 5% | 87% | |
| 126 | 8% | 82% | |
| 127 | 12% | 73% | |
| 128 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 129 | 17% | 50% | |
| 130 | 10% | 34% | |
| 131 | 8% | 23% | |
| 132 | 6% | 16% | |
| 133 | 3% | 10% | |
| 134 | 3% | 7% | |
| 135 | 2% | 4% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 138 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 140 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 141 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 109 | 3% | 96% | |
| 110 | 4% | 93% | |
| 111 | 5% | 89% | |
| 112 | 9% | 83% | |
| 113 | 13% | 74% | |
| 114 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 115 | 17% | 48% | |
| 116 | 10% | 31% | Majority |
| 117 | 8% | 21% | |
| 118 | 5% | 14% | |
| 119 | 4% | 9% | |
| 120 | 2% | 5% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 123 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 124 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 69 | 2% | 97% | |
| 70 | 4% | 95% | |
| 71 | 4% | 91% | |
| 72 | 6% | 87% | |
| 73 | 6% | 81% | |
| 74 | 9% | 75% | |
| 75 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 76 | 13% | 48% | |
| 77 | 14% | 35% | |
| 78 | 7% | 22% | |
| 79 | 5% | 14% | |
| 80 | 3% | 9% | |
| 81 | 2% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eurosondagem
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–12 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2048
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.34%