Opinion Poll by Eurosondagem for Porto Canal, 25 September–1 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 38.8% | 37.4–40.2% | 37.1–40.6% | 36.7–41.0% | 36.1–41.6% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 25.5% | 24.3–26.8% | 23.9–27.1% | 23.7–27.4% | 23.1–28.0% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.8–10.5% | 8.6–10.7% | 8.4–11.0% | 8.0–11.4% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.4–7.9% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.1–8.3% | 5.8–8.7% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 5.0% | 4.5–5.7% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 108–116 | 108–117 | 107–118 | 105–120 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 72 | 67–76 | 66–76 | 66–77 | 64–79 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 19 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 | 17–24 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 14 | 11–16 | 11–17 | 10–17 | 9–18 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–8 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 6% | 95% | |
| 109 | 8% | 90% | |
| 110 | 8% | 82% | |
| 111 | 12% | 75% | |
| 112 | 8% | 63% | |
| 113 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 114 | 12% | 45% | |
| 115 | 19% | 33% | |
| 116 | 6% | 15% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 8% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 5% | 95% | |
| 68 | 7% | 90% | |
| 69 | 9% | 82% | |
| 70 | 12% | 73% | |
| 71 | 9% | 61% | |
| 72 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 73 | 10% | 42% | |
| 74 | 11% | 32% | |
| 75 | 10% | 21% | |
| 76 | 6% | 11% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 18 | 33% | 97% | |
| 19 | 16% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 20 | 10% | 47% | |
| 21 | 15% | 37% | |
| 22 | 10% | 22% | |
| 23 | 7% | 12% | |
| 24 | 5% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 2% | 98% | |
| 11 | 7% | 96% | |
| 12 | 8% | 89% | |
| 13 | 11% | 81% | |
| 14 | 50% | 70% | Median |
| 15 | 6% | 20% | |
| 16 | 6% | 13% | |
| 17 | 7% | 7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 39% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 4% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 98.6% | |
| 5 | 10% | 77% | |
| 6 | 66% | 67% | Median |
| 7 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 146 | 100% | 142–150 | 142–151 | 141–152 | 139–154 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 133 | 100% | 129–137 | 128–138 | 127–138 | 125–140 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 126 | 100% | 122–130 | 121–131 | 120–132 | 119–134 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 113 | 15% | 108–116 | 108–117 | 107–118 | 105–120 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 78 | 0% | 74–82 | 73–83 | 73–84 | 71–85 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0% | 100% | |
| 125 | 0% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 100% | |
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 100% | |
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 100% | |
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 100% | |
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 141 | 3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 7% | 96% | |
| 143 | 12% | 89% | |
| 144 | 9% | 77% | |
| 145 | 12% | 68% | |
| 146 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 147 | 12% | 49% | |
| 148 | 10% | 36% | |
| 149 | 12% | 26% | |
| 150 | 6% | 14% | |
| 151 | 4% | 8% | |
| 152 | 2% | 4% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0% | 100% | |
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 100% | |
| 120 | 0% | 100% | |
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 127 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 128 | 5% | 95% | |
| 129 | 11% | 90% | |
| 130 | 8% | 79% | |
| 131 | 11% | 71% | |
| 132 | 10% | 60% | Median |
| 133 | 14% | 51% | |
| 134 | 10% | 37% | |
| 135 | 10% | 27% | |
| 136 | 6% | 17% | |
| 137 | 5% | 11% | |
| 138 | 4% | 6% | |
| 139 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 143 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 0% | 100% | |
| 114 | 0% | 100% | |
| 115 | 0% | 100% | |
| 116 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 118 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 121 | 3% | 97% | |
| 122 | 6% | 94% | |
| 123 | 7% | 88% | |
| 124 | 9% | 81% | |
| 125 | 13% | 72% | |
| 126 | 9% | 59% | |
| 127 | 9% | 49% | Median |
| 128 | 10% | 40% | |
| 129 | 14% | 30% | |
| 130 | 7% | 16% | |
| 131 | 5% | 9% | |
| 132 | 2% | 4% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0% | 100% | |
| 88 | 0% | 100% | |
| 89 | 0% | 100% | |
| 90 | 0% | 100% | |
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0% | 100% | |
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 100% | |
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 100% | |
| 99 | 0% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0% | 100% | |
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 106 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 6% | 95% | |
| 109 | 8% | 90% | |
| 110 | 8% | 82% | |
| 111 | 12% | 75% | |
| 112 | 8% | 63% | |
| 113 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 114 | 12% | 45% | |
| 115 | 19% | 33% | |
| 116 | 6% | 15% | Majority |
| 117 | 5% | 8% | |
| 118 | 2% | 3% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 124 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 5% | 95% | |
| 75 | 9% | 90% | |
| 76 | 10% | 81% | |
| 77 | 14% | 71% | |
| 78 | 7% | 57% | |
| 79 | 11% | 50% | Median |
| 80 | 10% | 39% | |
| 81 | 13% | 29% | |
| 82 | 9% | 16% | |
| 83 | 4% | 7% | |
| 84 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% | |
| 93 | 0% | 0% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% | |
| 96 | 0% | 0% | |
| 97 | 0% | 0% | |
| 98 | 0% | 0% | |
| 99 | 0% | 0% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eurosondagem
- Commissioner(s): Porto Canal
- Fieldwork period: 25 September–1 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 2071
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.62%