Opinion Poll by Intercampus for Correio da Manhã and Negócios, 26 September–1 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 32.3% | 35.0% | 33.1–37.0% | 32.6–37.5% | 32.1–38.0% | 31.2–39.0% |
| Partido Social Democrata | 36.9% | 26.1% | 24.4–27.9% | 23.9–28.5% | 23.5–28.9% | 22.7–29.8% |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1.4% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 36.9% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 104 | 99–110 | 97–111 | 95–113 | 90–115 |
| Partido Social Democrata | 89 | 76 | 71–80 | 69–82 | 67–84 | 65–90 |
| Bloco de Esquerda | 19 | 18 | 16–21 | 15–23 | 14–23 | 11–24 |
| Coligação Democrática Unitária | 17 | 17 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 | 10–23 |
| Pessoas–Animais–Natureza | 1 | 9 | 6–12 | 6–13 | 6–14 | 6–17 |
| CDS–Partido Popular | 18 | 6 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 3–10 | 2–11 |
Partido Socialista
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Socialista page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 2% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 94% | |
| 99 | 2% | 92% | |
| 100 | 4% | 90% | |
| 101 | 8% | 85% | |
| 102 | 11% | 78% | |
| 103 | 9% | 67% | |
| 104 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 105 | 14% | 46% | |
| 106 | 8% | 32% | |
| 107 | 6% | 24% | |
| 108 | 5% | 18% | |
| 109 | 4% | 14% | |
| 110 | 3% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partido Social Democrata page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 98.5% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 69 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 2% | 95% | |
| 71 | 3% | 93% | |
| 72 | 5% | 89% | |
| 73 | 10% | 84% | |
| 74 | 11% | 74% | |
| 75 | 12% | 62% | |
| 76 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 77 | 8% | 39% | |
| 78 | 11% | 31% | |
| 79 | 6% | 20% | |
| 80 | 5% | 15% | |
| 81 | 3% | 10% | |
| 82 | 2% | 7% | |
| 83 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 91 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 93 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 94 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 95 | 0% | 0% |
Bloco de Esquerda
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bloco de Esquerda page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 14 | 2% | 98% | |
| 15 | 4% | 96% | |
| 16 | 4% | 92% | |
| 17 | 22% | 87% | |
| 18 | 24% | 65% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 41% | Last Result |
| 20 | 10% | 25% | |
| 21 | 6% | 15% | |
| 22 | 4% | 9% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Coligação Democrática Unitária
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Coligação Democrática Unitária page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 8% | 98% | |
| 14 | 12% | 89% | |
| 15 | 5% | 77% | |
| 16 | 8% | 73% | |
| 17 | 27% | 65% | Last Result, Median |
| 18 | 17% | 38% | |
| 19 | 8% | 21% | |
| 20 | 10% | 13% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Pessoas–Animais–Natureza
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Pessoas–Animais–Natureza page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 7% | 82% | |
| 8 | 16% | 75% | |
| 9 | 37% | 59% | Median |
| 10 | 5% | 22% | |
| 11 | 3% | 18% | |
| 12 | 6% | 15% | |
| 13 | 5% | 9% | |
| 14 | 2% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
CDS–Partido Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the CDS–Partido Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 9% | 97% | |
| 5 | 4% | 88% | |
| 6 | 54% | 85% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 31% | |
| 8 | 2% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 122 | 139 | 100% | 134–144 | 132–146 | 130–148 | 125–151 |
| Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda | 105 | 123 | 94% | 117–128 | 115–129 | 113–131 | 109–134 |
| Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária | 103 | 121 | 90% | 116–126 | 114–128 | 112–130 | 107–132 |
| Partido Socialista | 86 | 104 | 0.4% | 99–110 | 97–111 | 95–113 | 90–115 |
| Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular | 107 | 82 | 0% | 77–87 | 75–89 | 74–91 | 71–96 |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 132 | 2% | 96% | |
| 133 | 3% | 94% | |
| 134 | 3% | 91% | |
| 135 | 3% | 88% | |
| 136 | 6% | 85% | |
| 137 | 7% | 79% | |
| 138 | 11% | 72% | |
| 139 | 12% | 60% | Median |
| 140 | 10% | 48% | |
| 141 | 10% | 38% | |
| 142 | 10% | 28% | |
| 143 | 6% | 18% | |
| 144 | 3% | 11% | |
| 145 | 3% | 8% | |
| 146 | 2% | 5% | |
| 147 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 148 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Bloco de Esquerda
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 112 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 114 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 115 | 2% | 96% | |
| 116 | 2% | 94% | Majority |
| 117 | 3% | 92% | |
| 118 | 4% | 89% | |
| 119 | 8% | 85% | |
| 120 | 10% | 77% | |
| 121 | 9% | 68% | |
| 122 | 8% | 59% | Median |
| 123 | 8% | 50% | |
| 124 | 9% | 42% | |
| 125 | 12% | 34% | |
| 126 | 6% | 21% | |
| 127 | 4% | 15% | |
| 128 | 3% | 11% | |
| 129 | 3% | 7% | |
| 130 | 2% | 5% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista – Coligação Democrática Unitária
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 102 | 0% | 100% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 111 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 113 | 2% | 97% | |
| 114 | 2% | 95% | |
| 115 | 3% | 93% | |
| 116 | 4% | 90% | Majority |
| 117 | 4% | 87% | |
| 118 | 6% | 83% | |
| 119 | 10% | 77% | |
| 120 | 10% | 67% | |
| 121 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 122 | 15% | 45% | |
| 123 | 8% | 30% | |
| 124 | 5% | 21% | |
| 125 | 4% | 16% | |
| 126 | 3% | 12% | |
| 127 | 2% | 8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 6% | |
| 129 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Socialista
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 92 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 93 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 95 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 96 | 2% | 97% | |
| 97 | 2% | 95% | |
| 98 | 2% | 94% | |
| 99 | 2% | 92% | |
| 100 | 4% | 90% | |
| 101 | 8% | 85% | |
| 102 | 11% | 78% | |
| 103 | 9% | 67% | |
| 104 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 105 | 14% | 46% | |
| 106 | 8% | 32% | |
| 107 | 6% | 24% | |
| 108 | 5% | 18% | |
| 109 | 4% | 14% | |
| 110 | 3% | 10% | |
| 111 | 2% | 7% | |
| 112 | 2% | 5% | |
| 113 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 114 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 117 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 118 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 119 | 0% | 0% |
Partido Social Democrata – CDS–Partido Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 96% | |
| 76 | 2% | 95% | |
| 77 | 3% | 92% | |
| 78 | 5% | 90% | |
| 79 | 7% | 84% | |
| 80 | 14% | 77% | |
| 81 | 10% | 63% | |
| 82 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 83 | 8% | 38% | |
| 84 | 9% | 31% | |
| 85 | 4% | 21% | |
| 86 | 6% | 17% | |
| 87 | 3% | 11% | |
| 88 | 2% | 8% | |
| 89 | 2% | 6% | |
| 90 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 91 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 92 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 94 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 96 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 100 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 101 | 0% | 0% | |
| 102 | 0% | 0% | |
| 103 | 0% | 0% | |
| 104 | 0% | 0% | |
| 105 | 0% | 0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 0% | |
| 107 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Intercampus
- Commissioner(s): Correio da Manhã and Negócios
- Fieldwork period: 26 September–1 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.82%