Opinion Poll by CURS, 22–26 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.4% 31.3–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 25.0% 23.4–26.7% 22.9–27.2% 22.5–27.6% 21.8–28.5%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.4–10.9% 7.0–11.4%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 120 114–127 112–130 110–132 108–134
Partidul Național Liberal 93 88 83–94 82–97 80–100 76–101
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 57 51–63 49–64 49–65 47–67
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 32 29–38 26–38 25–38 24–39
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 14 11–16 11–17 10–18 9–20
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 2% 99.3% Last Result
111 0.3% 97%  
112 2% 97%  
113 3% 95%  
114 6% 92%  
115 1.3% 86%  
116 7% 85%  
117 5% 78%  
118 14% 73%  
119 2% 59%  
120 10% 57% Median
121 8% 47%  
122 4% 39%  
123 2% 35%  
124 15% 32%  
125 2% 17%  
126 2% 15%  
127 2% 12%  
128 3% 10%  
129 1.2% 7%  
130 1.1% 5%  
131 1.1% 4%  
132 3% 3%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.3% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 99.1%  
79 0.6% 98.7%  
80 2% 98%  
81 0.7% 96%  
82 1.1% 95%  
83 9% 94%  
84 8% 85%  
85 7% 77%  
86 4% 70%  
87 11% 66%  
88 6% 55% Median
89 4% 49%  
90 4% 46%  
91 11% 42%  
92 5% 31%  
93 12% 26% Last Result
94 5% 14%  
95 2% 9%  
96 1.3% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.3% 4%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.9% 1.0%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.5%  
48 1.1% 99.4%  
49 6% 98%  
50 1.4% 92%  
51 1.4% 91%  
52 6% 89%  
53 3% 84%  
54 6% 80%  
55 9% 74% Last Result
56 11% 65%  
57 12% 54% Median
58 8% 42%  
59 5% 35%  
60 12% 30%  
61 5% 17%  
62 2% 13%  
63 4% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.6% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.9%  
25 1.3% 98.7%  
26 3% 97%  
27 2% 94%  
28 2% 92%  
29 3% 90%  
30 22% 87%  
31 13% 65%  
32 18% 52% Median
33 10% 34% Last Result
34 4% 24%  
35 2% 20%  
36 3% 18%  
37 4% 15%  
38 10% 12%  
39 0.9% 1.3%  
40 0.1% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 4% 99.3%  
11 13% 96%  
12 13% 82%  
13 13% 69%  
14 16% 57% Median
15 9% 41%  
16 22% 32%  
17 6% 10%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.9% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 159 17% 153–166 150–168 149–170 146–173
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 159 17% 153–166 150–168 149–170 146–173
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 146 0% 139–153 137–154 135–156 132–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 146 0% 139–153 137–154 135–156 132–158
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 120 0% 114–127 112–130 110–132 108–134
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 103 0% 96–108 95–110 95–114 90–115
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 103 0% 96–108 95–110 95–114 90–115
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 88 0% 83–94 82–97 80–100 76–101
Partidul Național Liberal 93 88 0% 83–94 82–97 80–100 76–101
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 57 0% 51–63 49–64 49–65 47–67

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.2% 99.9%  
146 0.3% 99.7%  
147 0.7% 99.4%  
148 0.4% 98.7%  
149 3% 98%  
150 1.2% 96%  
151 2% 94%  
152 2% 92%  
153 2% 90%  
154 7% 88%  
155 2% 81%  
156 9% 79%  
157 2% 69%  
158 13% 68%  
159 5% 54% Median
160 8% 49%  
161 4% 41%  
162 7% 38%  
163 2% 31%  
164 12% 29%  
165 4% 17% Majority
166 3% 13%  
167 4% 10%  
168 1.3% 5%  
169 0.6% 4% Last Result
170 1.3% 3%  
171 1.2% 2%  
172 0.1% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.7%  
174 0.2% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
143 0.1% 100%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0.2% 99.8%  
146 0.3% 99.7%  
147 0.7% 99.4%  
148 0.4% 98.7%  
149 3% 98%  
150 1.2% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 2% 92%  
153 2% 90%  
154 7% 88%  
155 2% 81%  
156 9% 79%  
157 2% 69%  
158 13% 68%  
159 5% 54% Median
160 8% 49%  
161 4% 41%  
162 7% 38%  
163 2% 31%  
164 12% 29%  
165 4% 17% Majority
166 3% 13%  
167 4% 10%  
168 1.3% 5%  
169 0.6% 4% Last Result
170 1.3% 3%  
171 1.2% 2%  
172 0.1% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.7%  
174 0.2% 0.5%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.4% 99.8%  
133 1.3% 99.4%  
134 0.2% 98%  
135 0.6% 98%  
136 2% 97%  
137 1.2% 95%  
138 3% 94%  
139 3% 91%  
140 11% 88%  
141 5% 76%  
142 8% 72%  
143 3% 64%  
144 4% 61%  
145 2% 58% Median
146 9% 56%  
147 10% 47%  
148 7% 37% Last Result
149 6% 30%  
150 2% 23%  
151 3% 21%  
152 1.4% 18%  
153 9% 17%  
154 3% 8%  
155 0.8% 4%  
156 3% 3%  
157 0.3% 0.8%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.2% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.4% 99.8%  
133 1.3% 99.4%  
134 0.2% 98%  
135 0.6% 98%  
136 2% 97%  
137 1.2% 95%  
138 3% 94%  
139 3% 91%  
140 11% 88%  
141 5% 76%  
142 8% 72%  
143 3% 64%  
144 4% 61%  
145 2% 58% Median
146 9% 56%  
147 10% 47%  
148 7% 37% Last Result
149 6% 30%  
150 2% 23%  
151 3% 21%  
152 1.4% 18%  
153 9% 17%  
154 3% 8%  
155 0.8% 4%  
156 3% 3%  
157 0.3% 0.8%  
158 0.2% 0.5%  
159 0.2% 0.3%  
160 0% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0.1% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.5%  
110 2% 99.3% Last Result
111 0.3% 97%  
112 2% 97%  
113 3% 95%  
114 6% 92%  
115 1.3% 86%  
116 7% 85%  
117 5% 78%  
118 14% 73%  
119 2% 59%  
120 10% 57% Median
121 8% 47%  
122 4% 39%  
123 2% 35%  
124 15% 32%  
125 2% 17%  
126 2% 15%  
127 2% 12%  
128 3% 10%  
129 1.2% 7%  
130 1.1% 5%  
131 1.1% 4%  
132 3% 3%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.3% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.2% 98.9%  
93 0.4% 98.7%  
94 0.4% 98%  
95 4% 98%  
96 5% 94%  
97 11% 89%  
98 5% 79%  
99 2% 73%  
100 3% 71%  
101 4% 69%  
102 5% 65% Median
103 11% 60%  
104 20% 49%  
105 2% 29%  
106 5% 28%  
107 9% 23%  
108 5% 14%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 7%  
111 0.6% 4%  
112 0.3% 4%  
113 0.6% 3%  
114 1.2% 3% Last Result
115 1.2% 2%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.2%  
92 0.2% 98.9%  
93 0.4% 98.7%  
94 0.4% 98%  
95 4% 98%  
96 5% 94%  
97 11% 89%  
98 5% 78%  
99 2% 73%  
100 3% 71%  
101 4% 69%  
102 5% 65% Median
103 11% 60%  
104 20% 49%  
105 2% 29%  
106 5% 28%  
107 9% 23%  
108 5% 14%  
109 3% 9%  
110 2% 7%  
111 0.6% 4%  
112 0.3% 4%  
113 0.6% 3%  
114 1.2% 3% Last Result
115 1.2% 2%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 99.1%  
79 0.6% 98.7%  
80 2% 98%  
81 0.7% 96%  
82 1.1% 95%  
83 9% 94%  
84 8% 85%  
85 7% 77%  
86 4% 70%  
87 11% 66%  
88 6% 55% Median
89 4% 49%  
90 4% 46%  
91 11% 42%  
92 5% 31%  
93 12% 26% Last Result
94 5% 14%  
95 2% 9%  
96 1.3% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.3% 4%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.9% 1.1%  
102 0% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.5%  
78 0.4% 99.1%  
79 0.6% 98.7%  
80 2% 98%  
81 0.7% 96%  
82 1.1% 95%  
83 9% 94%  
84 8% 85%  
85 7% 77%  
86 4% 70%  
87 11% 66%  
88 6% 55% Median
89 4% 49%  
90 4% 46%  
91 11% 42%  
92 5% 31%  
93 12% 26% Last Result
94 5% 14%  
95 2% 9%  
96 1.3% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 0.3% 4%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.9% 1.0%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.5%  
48 1.1% 99.4%  
49 6% 98%  
50 1.3% 92%  
51 1.3% 91%  
52 6% 89%  
53 3% 84%  
54 6% 80%  
55 9% 74% Last Result
56 11% 65%  
57 12% 54% Median
58 8% 42%  
59 5% 35%  
60 12% 30%  
61 5% 17%  
62 2% 13%  
63 4% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.6% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations