Opinion Poll by CURS, 14–17 April 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 33.0% 31.2–34.8% 30.7–35.3% 30.3–35.8% 29.4–36.7%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 21.0% 19.4–22.6% 19.0–23.1% 18.7–23.5% 18.0–24.3%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.5% 14.3–17.9% 13.9–18.3% 13.3–19.0%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.7–14.7%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.7%
PRO România 4.1% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 116 109–124 106–124 104–127 102–132
Partidul Național Liberal 93 75 69–78 67–81 66–84 62–86
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 55 50–61 50–64 49–64 47–68
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 44 38–46 37–48 36–48 33–51
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0–20 0–21 0–21 0–23
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 14 11–17 11–18 10–18 9–20
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0–18 0–19
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.6% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.0%  
104 3% 98.7%  
105 0.2% 96%  
106 2% 96%  
107 3% 94%  
108 0.8% 91%  
109 3% 90%  
110 2% 88% Last Result
111 0.6% 86%  
112 9% 85%  
113 2% 76%  
114 11% 74%  
115 6% 63%  
116 21% 57% Median
117 7% 36%  
118 2% 29%  
119 6% 27%  
120 3% 21%  
121 1.2% 18%  
122 3% 17%  
123 0.8% 14%  
124 8% 13%  
125 0.4% 4%  
126 1.1% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.3% 2%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.9% 1.5%  
131 0% 0.6%  
132 0.4% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.4%  
64 0.2% 99.0%  
65 0.8% 98.8%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 94%  
69 3% 92%  
70 5% 89%  
71 3% 85%  
72 6% 81%  
73 6% 75%  
74 13% 69%  
75 9% 56% Median
76 7% 48%  
77 29% 41%  
78 3% 12%  
79 0.9% 9%  
80 0.9% 8%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.1% 3%  
84 0.3% 3%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 1.0% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 98.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 11% 96%  
51 2% 85%  
52 10% 84%  
53 4% 74%  
54 14% 71%  
55 11% 56% Last Result, Median
56 4% 46%  
57 2% 42%  
58 6% 40%  
59 21% 33%  
60 1.3% 12%  
61 1.5% 11%  
62 0.9% 9%  
63 2% 8%  
64 4% 6%  
65 1.5% 2%  
66 0.3% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.7%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
34 0.3% 99.5%  
35 0.3% 99.1%  
36 1.4% 98.9%  
37 5% 97%  
38 4% 93%  
39 5% 89%  
40 11% 84%  
41 4% 73%  
42 9% 69%  
43 3% 60%  
44 37% 57% Median
45 1.3% 20%  
46 12% 19%  
47 1.5% 7%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.4% 2%  
50 0.3% 1.0%  
51 0.4% 0.7%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 0% 44%  
4 0% 44%  
5 0% 44%  
6 0% 44%  
7 0% 44%  
8 0% 44%  
9 0% 44%  
10 0% 44%  
11 0% 44%  
12 0% 44%  
13 0% 44%  
14 0% 44%  
15 0% 44%  
16 0.2% 44%  
17 13% 44%  
18 14% 32%  
19 5% 18%  
20 7% 13%  
21 5% 6%  
22 0.5% 1.1%  
23 0.4% 0.6%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 0.8% 99.6%  
10 2% 98.8%  
11 14% 97%  
12 8% 83%  
13 22% 75%  
14 13% 53% Median
15 5% 40%  
16 23% 35%  
17 7% 12%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.8% 1.5%  
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 0% 4%  
8 0% 4%  
9 0% 4%  
10 0% 4%  
11 0% 4%  
12 0% 4%  
13 0% 4%  
14 0% 4%  
15 0% 4%  
16 0.3% 4%  
17 0.9% 4%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 152 5% 142–161 142–164 139–167 134–168
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 144 0% 137–152 134–152 130–157 127–159
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 137 0% 128–148 128–151 125–154 122–157
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 130 0% 122–136 121–139 119–142 115–145
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 116 0% 109–124 106–124 104–127 102–132
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 94 0% 87–107 84–109 82–111 79–112
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 88 0% 82–94 80–96 79–98 74–101
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 81 0% 74–94 71–96 70–96 66–100
Partidul Național Liberal 93 75 0% 69–78 67–81 66–84 62–86
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 64 0% 54–75 53–76 53–78 49–82

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0.5% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.4%  
136 0.4% 99.3%  
137 0.6% 98.9%  
138 0.3% 98%  
139 0.6% 98%  
140 0.8% 97%  
141 0.5% 97%  
142 8% 96%  
143 1.1% 88%  
144 2% 87% Median
145 0.5% 85%  
146 2% 85%  
147 0.7% 83%  
148 3% 82%  
149 8% 78%  
150 2% 71%  
151 4% 69%  
152 21% 65%  
153 1.1% 43%  
154 1.5% 42%  
155 3% 41%  
156 14% 38%  
157 5% 24%  
158 1.0% 19%  
159 0.6% 18%  
160 1.3% 17%  
161 7% 16%  
162 1.0% 9%  
163 0.4% 8%  
164 2% 7%  
165 0.3% 5% Majority
166 2% 5%  
167 2% 3%  
168 0.3% 0.8%  
169 0% 0.5% Last Result
170 0.2% 0.4%  
171 0.2% 0.3%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.6%  
128 0.5% 99.5%  
129 0.2% 99.0%  
130 2% 98.9%  
131 0.8% 97%  
132 0.5% 96%  
133 0.2% 96%  
134 2% 96%  
135 0.9% 93%  
136 3% 93%  
137 3% 90%  
138 8% 87%  
139 7% 80%  
140 8% 73%  
141 4% 65%  
142 9% 61%  
143 2% 52%  
144 2% 50% Median
145 3% 48%  
146 2% 45%  
147 2% 43%  
148 2% 41%  
149 10% 39%  
150 0.6% 29%  
151 2% 28%  
152 21% 26%  
153 0.6% 5%  
154 0.4% 4%  
155 0.4% 4%  
156 0.7% 3%  
157 2% 3%  
158 0.1% 0.7%  
159 0.2% 0.6%  
160 0% 0.4%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.2% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.5% 99.6%  
123 0.5% 99.1%  
124 0.4% 98.6%  
125 0.9% 98%  
126 0.4% 97%  
127 0.5% 97%  
128 8% 96%  
129 0.9% 89%  
130 0.6% 88% Median
131 1.5% 87%  
132 6% 86%  
133 1.4% 79%  
134 3% 78%  
135 2% 75%  
136 22% 73%  
137 0.7% 50%  
138 2% 50%  
139 7% 47%  
140 2% 40%  
141 0.5% 38%  
142 3% 38%  
143 9% 34%  
144 0.3% 25%  
145 8% 25%  
146 0.6% 17%  
147 0.5% 17%  
148 7% 16% Last Result
149 2% 9%  
150 3% 8%  
151 2% 5%  
152 0.1% 4%  
153 0.3% 3%  
154 2% 3%  
155 0.1% 0.7%  
156 0.1% 0.7%  
157 0.4% 0.5%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.6% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.1%  
117 0.4% 98.9%  
118 0.2% 98.6%  
119 3% 98%  
120 0.3% 96%  
121 0.8% 95%  
122 6% 94%  
123 1.2% 89%  
124 3% 88%  
125 9% 85%  
126 2% 76%  
127 5% 74%  
128 14% 70%  
129 4% 56%  
130 3% 52% Median
131 2% 49%  
132 8% 47%  
133 2% 39%  
134 3% 37%  
135 2% 34%  
136 24% 32%  
137 0.5% 9%  
138 3% 8%  
139 1.5% 6%  
140 0.4% 4%  
141 0.4% 4%  
142 0.9% 3%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.2% 2%  
145 1.2% 2%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.2% Last Result
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.6% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.0%  
104 3% 98.7%  
105 0.2% 96%  
106 2% 96%  
107 3% 94%  
108 0.8% 91%  
109 2% 90%  
110 2% 88% Last Result
111 0.6% 86%  
112 9% 85%  
113 2% 76%  
114 11% 74%  
115 6% 63%  
116 21% 57% Median
117 7% 36%  
118 2% 29%  
119 6% 27%  
120 3% 21%  
121 1.2% 18%  
122 3% 17%  
123 0.8% 14%  
124 8% 13%  
125 0.5% 4%  
126 1.1% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.3% 2%  
129 0.5% 2%  
130 0.9% 1.5%  
131 0% 0.6%  
132 0.4% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.6% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 0.9% 98.9%  
82 0.7% 98%  
83 0.8% 97%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 94%  
86 2% 92%  
87 2% 91%  
88 9% 89%  
89 1.1% 80% Median
90 0.8% 79%  
91 0.9% 78%  
92 1.3% 77%  
93 21% 76%  
94 6% 55%  
95 0.6% 49%  
96 4% 48%  
97 1.4% 45%  
98 3% 43%  
99 0.9% 41%  
100 3% 40%  
101 2% 37%  
102 0.7% 35%  
103 2% 34%  
104 6% 33%  
105 3% 26%  
106 8% 24%  
107 7% 15%  
108 0.4% 8%  
109 3% 7%  
110 0.6% 5%  
111 2% 4%  
112 2% 2%  
113 0.2% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
115 0% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.2%  
117 0% 0.1%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.4%  
76 0.1% 99.1%  
77 0.5% 99.1%  
78 0.5% 98.5%  
79 3% 98%  
80 2% 95%  
81 3% 93%  
82 3% 91%  
83 3% 88%  
84 3% 85%  
85 5% 81%  
86 6% 77%  
87 8% 71%  
88 16% 64%  
89 3% 47% Median
90 4% 44%  
91 3% 41%  
92 3% 37%  
93 23% 34%  
94 6% 12%  
95 0.4% 5%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.2% 3%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.6% 1.3%  
100 0.1% 0.7%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.3%  
68 0.1% 98.6%  
69 0.3% 98%  
70 3% 98%  
71 1.2% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 1.0% 92%  
74 11% 91%  
75 0.9% 80% Median
76 1.0% 79%  
77 26% 78%  
78 0.3% 52%  
79 0.9% 52%  
80 0.7% 51%  
81 2% 51%  
82 3% 48%  
83 0.3% 46%  
84 2% 46%  
85 3% 44%  
86 1.0% 41%  
87 3% 40%  
88 0.7% 37%  
89 4% 36%  
90 2% 32%  
91 2% 30%  
92 0.5% 27%  
93 13% 27% Last Result
94 6% 14%  
95 0.2% 8%  
96 6% 8%  
97 0.3% 1.5%  
98 0.2% 1.1%  
99 0.1% 0.9%  
100 0.5% 0.8%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.4%  
64 0.2% 99.0%  
65 0.8% 98.8%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 94%  
69 3% 92%  
70 5% 89%  
71 3% 85%  
72 6% 81%  
73 6% 75%  
74 13% 69%  
75 9% 56% Median
76 7% 48%  
77 29% 41%  
78 3% 12%  
79 0.9% 9%  
80 0.9% 8%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.1% 3%  
84 0.3% 3%  
85 2% 2%  
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.2%  
51 0.3% 98.7%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 3% 98%  
54 9% 95%  
55 6% 86% Last Result, Median
56 1.0% 80%  
57 1.4% 79%  
58 2% 78%  
59 21% 75%  
60 0.8% 55%  
61 1.2% 54%  
62 0.5% 53%  
63 2% 52%  
64 4% 50%  
65 2% 47%  
66 0.6% 44%  
67 3% 44%  
68 8% 41%  
69 7% 33%  
70 1.4% 25%  
71 3% 24%  
72 3% 21%  
73 3% 18%  
74 2% 15%  
75 4% 13%  
76 4% 9%  
77 0.5% 4%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations