Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 1–31 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 36.0% 34.2–37.9% 33.7–38.4% 33.2–38.9% 32.3–39.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 23.0% 21.4–24.7% 21.0–25.2% 20.6–25.6% 19.9–26.4%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 15.0% 13.7–16.5% 13.3–16.9% 13.0–17.2% 12.4–18.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.4–15.8% 12.1–16.2% 11.5–16.9%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 121 115–126 113–129 112–131 110–133
Partidul Național Liberal 93 78 73–84 70–85 70–86 66–89
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 51 46–54 45–55 44–57 41–60
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 47 42–52 42–53 40–55 37–57
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 16 14–20 13–20 13–21 12–23
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.8%  
110 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
111 0.4% 99.2%  
112 4% 98.8%  
113 1.1% 95%  
114 0.3% 94%  
115 8% 94%  
116 4% 86%  
117 2% 82%  
118 2% 79%  
119 20% 77%  
120 3% 57%  
121 14% 54% Median
122 6% 40%  
123 0.7% 33%  
124 3% 32%  
125 13% 29%  
126 7% 16%  
127 0.8% 9%  
128 3% 8%  
129 0.4% 5%  
130 1.4% 5%  
131 2% 3%  
132 0.8% 1.4%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 0.3% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 98.8%  
70 3% 98%  
71 0.9% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 8% 92%  
74 3% 84%  
75 11% 81%  
76 5% 71%  
77 14% 66%  
78 8% 52% Median
79 3% 44%  
80 6% 41%  
81 20% 36%  
82 4% 15%  
83 1.0% 11%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.2% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.8%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 0.4% 99.4%  
43 1.0% 99.0%  
44 2% 98%  
45 6% 96%  
46 3% 90%  
47 9% 87%  
48 13% 79%  
49 7% 65%  
50 7% 59%  
51 22% 52% Median
52 12% 30%  
53 5% 18%  
54 5% 12%  
55 2% 7%  
56 2% 5%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.4% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.9%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.2% 99.5%  
39 0.6% 99.3%  
40 1.3% 98.7%  
41 1.2% 97%  
42 9% 96%  
43 6% 87%  
44 4% 82%  
45 4% 78%  
46 15% 74%  
47 22% 58% Median
48 12% 36%  
49 4% 24%  
50 4% 20%  
51 4% 16%  
52 6% 12%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.4% 4%  
55 0.4% 3% Last Result
56 0.6% 2%  
57 1.5% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.6%  
13 7% 98.9%  
14 28% 92%  
15 12% 64%  
16 17% 52% Median
17 7% 35%  
18 12% 29%  
19 4% 17%  
20 9% 12%  
21 2% 3% Last Result
22 1.1% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.5%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 142 0% 135–148 132–149 130–151 127–152
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 142 0% 135–148 132–149 130–151 127–152
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 125 0% 119–130 117–133 116–133 112–135
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 125 0% 119–130 117–133 116–133 112–135
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 121 0% 115–126 113–129 112–131 110–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 95 0% 89–100 86–102 85–102 82–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 95 0% 89–100 86–102 85–102 82–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 78 0% 73–84 70–85 70–86 66–89
Partidul Național Liberal 93 78 0% 73–84 70–85 70–86 66–89
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 47 0% 42–52 42–53 40–55 37–57

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.5%  
129 0.3% 99.4%  
130 2% 99.1%  
131 0.5% 97%  
132 2% 97%  
133 0.8% 94%  
134 2% 93%  
135 4% 91%  
136 2% 88%  
137 3% 85%  
138 8% 83%  
139 16% 75%  
140 2% 59%  
141 4% 57% Median
142 23% 53%  
143 2% 30%  
144 9% 28%  
145 3% 19%  
146 2% 15%  
147 3% 14%  
148 5% 10%  
149 1.4% 5%  
150 1.2% 4%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.5% 0.9%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0.1% 100%  
126 0.2% 99.9%  
127 0.2% 99.7%  
128 0.1% 99.5%  
129 0.3% 99.4%  
130 2% 99.1%  
131 0.5% 97%  
132 2% 97%  
133 0.8% 94%  
134 2% 93%  
135 4% 91%  
136 2% 88%  
137 3% 85%  
138 8% 83%  
139 16% 75%  
140 2% 59%  
141 4% 57% Median
142 23% 53%  
143 2% 30%  
144 9% 28%  
145 3% 19%  
146 2% 15%  
147 3% 14%  
148 5% 10%  
149 1.4% 5%  
150 1.2% 4%  
151 2% 3%  
152 0.5% 0.9%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.5% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.1%  
114 0.5% 98.8%  
115 0.4% 98%  
116 2% 98%  
117 2% 96%  
118 1.0% 94%  
119 6% 93%  
120 3% 87%  
121 9% 84%  
122 2% 75%  
123 6% 72%  
124 8% 66%  
125 14% 58% Median
126 4% 44%  
127 3% 40%  
128 22% 37%  
129 4% 15%  
130 2% 12%  
131 0.4% 10%  
132 3% 10%  
133 5% 6%  
134 0.2% 1.1%  
135 0.4% 0.9%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.2% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.5% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.1%  
114 0.5% 98.8%  
115 0.4% 98%  
116 2% 98%  
117 2% 96%  
118 1.0% 94%  
119 6% 93%  
120 3% 87%  
121 9% 84%  
122 2% 75%  
123 6% 72%  
124 8% 66%  
125 14% 58% Median
126 4% 44%  
127 3% 40%  
128 22% 37%  
129 4% 15%  
130 2% 12%  
131 0.4% 10%  
132 3% 10%  
133 5% 6%  
134 0.2% 1.1%  
135 0.4% 0.9%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.2% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0.3% 99.8%  
110 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
111 0.4% 99.2%  
112 4% 98.8%  
113 1.1% 95%  
114 0.3% 94%  
115 8% 94%  
116 4% 86%  
117 2% 82%  
118 2% 79%  
119 20% 77%  
120 3% 57%  
121 14% 54% Median
122 6% 40%  
123 0.7% 33%  
124 3% 32%  
125 13% 29%  
126 7% 16%  
127 0.8% 9%  
128 3% 8%  
129 0.4% 5%  
130 1.4% 5%  
131 2% 3%  
132 0.8% 1.4%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.2% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.5%  
84 0.5% 98.7%  
85 1.0% 98%  
86 3% 97%  
87 2% 94%  
88 2% 92%  
89 3% 91%  
90 7% 87%  
91 12% 81%  
92 5% 69%  
93 9% 64%  
94 4% 55% Median
95 22% 51%  
96 3% 30%  
97 2% 26%  
98 9% 25%  
99 4% 15%  
100 4% 12%  
101 0.5% 8%  
102 6% 8%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.3%  
105 0.1% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.6%  
107 0.4% 0.5%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.5%  
84 0.5% 98.7%  
85 1.0% 98%  
86 3% 97%  
87 2% 94%  
88 2% 92%  
89 3% 91%  
90 7% 87%  
91 12% 81%  
92 5% 69%  
93 9% 64%  
94 4% 55% Median
95 22% 51%  
96 3% 30%  
97 2% 26%  
98 9% 25%  
99 4% 15%  
100 4% 12%  
101 0.5% 8%  
102 6% 8%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.3%  
105 0.1% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.6%  
107 0.4% 0.5%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 0.3% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 98.8%  
70 3% 98%  
71 0.9% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 8% 92%  
74 3% 84%  
75 11% 81%  
76 5% 71%  
77 14% 66%  
78 8% 52% Median
79 3% 44%  
80 6% 41%  
81 20% 36%  
82 4% 15%  
83 1.0% 11%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.2% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.8%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.4%  
68 0.3% 99.1%  
69 1.0% 98.8%  
70 3% 98%  
71 0.9% 95%  
72 2% 94%  
73 8% 92%  
74 3% 84%  
75 11% 81%  
76 5% 71%  
77 14% 66%  
78 8% 52% Median
79 3% 44%  
80 6% 41%  
81 20% 36%  
82 4% 15%  
83 1.0% 11%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.2% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.8%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.2% 99.5%  
39 0.6% 99.3%  
40 1.3% 98.7%  
41 1.2% 97%  
42 9% 96%  
43 6% 87%  
44 4% 82%  
45 4% 78%  
46 15% 74%  
47 22% 58% Median
48 12% 36%  
49 4% 24%  
50 4% 20%  
51 4% 16%  
52 6% 12%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.4% 4%  
55 0.4% 3% Last Result
56 0.6% 2%  
57 1.5% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations