Opinion Poll by Sociopol, 1–31 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 36.4% 34.5–38.3% 34.0–38.8% 33.6–39.3% 32.7–40.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.2–24.3% 19.8–24.7% 19.1–25.6%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 15.2% 13.9–16.7% 13.5–17.1% 13.2–17.4% 12.6–18.2%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 11.1% 10.0–12.4% 9.6–12.8% 9.4–13.1% 8.8–13.7%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 6.1% 5.3–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.8–7.7% 4.5–8.2%
PRO România 4.1% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 122 113–129 109–131 109–132 107–137
Partidul Național Liberal 93 74 67–79 66–82 64–84 62–87
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 49 46–55 44–56 42–58 40–61
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 35 32–41 31–42 30–43 28–46
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 21 17–24 16–25 16–25 14–28
PRO România 0 17 0–18 0–19 0–20 0–22
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.8%  
107 1.1% 99.6%  
108 0.3% 98%  
109 3% 98%  
110 0.4% 95% Last Result
111 1.0% 95%  
112 3% 94%  
113 1.3% 91%  
114 1.2% 90%  
115 0.5% 89%  
116 14% 88%  
117 2% 74%  
118 5% 72%  
119 2% 67%  
120 4% 65%  
121 1.5% 61%  
122 22% 59% Median
123 2% 37%  
124 2% 36%  
125 8% 34%  
126 6% 26%  
127 1.4% 20%  
128 6% 19%  
129 4% 13%  
130 0.8% 9%  
131 5% 8%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.2% 2%  
134 0.7% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.4%  
136 0.2% 0.9%  
137 0.6% 0.8%  
138 0% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 1.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 98.5%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 3% 89%  
69 2% 86%  
70 4% 85%  
71 4% 81%  
72 9% 76%  
73 9% 67%  
74 15% 58% Median
75 6% 43%  
76 8% 37%  
77 3% 29%  
78 5% 27%  
79 12% 22%  
80 2% 9%  
81 1.0% 7%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.0% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.1% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.6%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 1.5% 100%  
41 0.2% 98%  
42 0.8% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 1.4% 95%  
45 0.9% 94%  
46 7% 93%  
47 7% 86%  
48 24% 79%  
49 5% 54% Median
50 6% 49%  
51 5% 44%  
52 5% 39%  
53 15% 33%  
54 7% 18%  
55 5% 11% Last Result
56 2% 6%  
57 0.7% 4%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.4% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.4%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.4% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.4%  
30 3% 98.7%  
31 1.1% 96%  
32 8% 95%  
33 14% 87% Last Result
34 8% 73%  
35 20% 65% Median
36 9% 45%  
37 8% 36%  
38 7% 28%  
39 2% 21%  
40 5% 18%  
41 8% 13%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.3% 3%  
44 0.4% 1.2%  
45 0.2% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.6%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 99.3%  
16 8% 98%  
17 12% 91%  
18 15% 79%  
19 8% 64%  
20 3% 56%  
21 5% 54% Last Result, Median
22 10% 48%  
23 27% 39%  
24 6% 12%  
25 4% 6%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.9%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 0% 55%  
4 0% 55%  
5 0% 55%  
6 0% 55%  
7 0% 55%  
8 0% 55%  
9 0% 55%  
10 0% 55%  
11 0% 55%  
12 0% 55%  
13 0% 55%  
14 0% 55%  
15 0% 55%  
16 5% 55%  
17 12% 51% Median
18 29% 39%  
19 4% 9%  
20 2% 5%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.8%  
23 0.3% 0.5%  
24 0.1% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 145 0% 136–155 135–155 130–158 129–162
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 145 0% 136–155 135–155 130–158 129–162
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 131 0% 122–140 120–143 120–145 116–148
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 123 0% 115–132 114–134 112–138 109–139
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 123 0% 115–132 114–134 112–138 109–139
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 95 0% 87–102 85–105 82–105 79–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 95 0% 87–102 85–105 82–105 79–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 74 0% 67–79 66–82 64–84 62–87
Partidul Național Liberal 93 74 0% 67–79 66–82 64–84 62–87
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 49 0% 46–55 44–56 42–58 40–61

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.9%  
129 2% 99.6%  
130 0.6% 98%  
131 0.7% 97%  
132 0.3% 97%  
133 1.1% 96%  
134 0.3% 95%  
135 0.9% 95%  
136 6% 94%  
137 10% 88%  
138 1.4% 78%  
139 3% 77%  
140 3% 74%  
141 3% 71%  
142 1.1% 68%  
143 6% 67%  
144 5% 61% Median
145 15% 56%  
146 7% 41%  
147 6% 34%  
148 2% 27%  
149 1.2% 26%  
150 2% 25%  
151 0.5% 23%  
152 3% 23%  
153 4% 20%  
154 3% 16%  
155 9% 13%  
156 1.1% 4%  
157 0.1% 3%  
158 0.2% 3%  
159 0.4% 2%  
160 0.8% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.1%  
162 0.8% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.2%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.2% 99.9%  
129 2% 99.6%  
130 0.6% 98%  
131 0.7% 97%  
132 0.3% 97%  
133 1.1% 96%  
134 0.3% 95%  
135 0.9% 95%  
136 6% 94%  
137 10% 88%  
138 1.4% 78%  
139 3% 77%  
140 3% 74%  
141 3% 71%  
142 1.1% 68%  
143 6% 67%  
144 5% 61% Median
145 15% 56%  
146 7% 41%  
147 6% 34%  
148 2% 27%  
149 1.2% 26%  
150 2% 25%  
151 0.5% 23%  
152 3% 23%  
153 4% 20%  
154 3% 16%  
155 9% 13%  
156 1.1% 4%  
157 0.1% 3%  
158 0.2% 3%  
159 0.4% 2%  
160 0.8% 2%  
161 0.1% 1.1%  
162 0.8% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.2%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100% Last Result
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.7%  
117 0.5% 99.4%  
118 0.1% 98.9%  
119 0.9% 98.7%  
120 3% 98%  
121 0.6% 95%  
122 11% 94%  
123 1.5% 83%  
124 0.8% 82%  
125 6% 81%  
126 8% 75%  
127 1.0% 68%  
128 8% 67%  
129 4% 59%  
130 1.4% 55%  
131 4% 53%  
132 2% 49%  
133 0.3% 47%  
134 13% 47%  
135 6% 33%  
136 2% 27%  
137 2% 25%  
138 1.0% 24%  
139 3% 23% Median
140 10% 20%  
141 2% 10%  
142 0.6% 8%  
143 4% 8%  
144 0.7% 4%  
145 0.9% 3%  
146 0.1% 2%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 2% 2%  
149 0.2% 0.3%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.3% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.6%  
110 0.1% 99.5%  
111 0.2% 99.3%  
112 2% 99.1%  
113 0.2% 97%  
114 2% 97%  
115 5% 94%  
116 3% 90%  
117 0.5% 86%  
118 3% 86%  
119 2% 83%  
120 10% 81%  
121 3% 71%  
122 17% 67%  
123 3% 51% Median
124 2% 47%  
125 3% 45%  
126 3% 42%  
127 5% 38%  
128 0.9% 33%  
129 7% 32%  
130 5% 25%  
131 4% 19%  
132 10% 15%  
133 0.8% 6%  
134 0.5% 5%  
135 0.4% 5%  
136 1.4% 4%  
137 0.1% 3%  
138 0.7% 3%  
139 1.4% 2%  
140 0.3% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0.1% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.3% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.6%  
110 0.1% 99.5%  
111 0.2% 99.3%  
112 2% 99.1%  
113 0.2% 97%  
114 2% 97%  
115 5% 94%  
116 3% 90%  
117 0.5% 86%  
118 3% 86%  
119 2% 83%  
120 10% 81%  
121 3% 71%  
122 17% 67%  
123 3% 51% Median
124 2% 47%  
125 3% 45%  
126 3% 42%  
127 5% 38%  
128 0.9% 33%  
129 7% 32%  
130 5% 25%  
131 4% 19%  
132 10% 15%  
133 0.8% 6%  
134 0.5% 5%  
135 0.4% 5%  
136 1.4% 4%  
137 0.1% 3%  
138 0.7% 3%  
139 1.4% 2%  
140 0.3% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.5% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.4%  
81 0% 99.3%  
82 2% 99.3%  
83 0.7% 97%  
84 0.5% 97%  
85 1.4% 96%  
86 4% 95%  
87 1.4% 91%  
88 0.4% 89%  
89 12% 89%  
90 3% 77%  
91 1.5% 73%  
92 5% 72%  
93 5% 67%  
94 12% 62%  
95 4% 51% Median
96 3% 47%  
97 18% 43%  
98 3% 25%  
99 3% 22%  
100 1.3% 20%  
101 1.5% 18%  
102 10% 17%  
103 1.2% 7%  
104 0.3% 5%  
105 3% 5%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.1% 0.5%  
108 0% 0.5%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.5% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.4%  
81 0% 99.3%  
82 2% 99.3%  
83 0.7% 97%  
84 0.5% 97%  
85 1.4% 96%  
86 4% 95%  
87 1.4% 91%  
88 0.4% 89%  
89 12% 89%  
90 3% 77%  
91 1.5% 73%  
92 5% 72%  
93 5% 67%  
94 12% 62%  
95 4% 51% Median
96 3% 47%  
97 18% 43%  
98 3% 25%  
99 3% 22%  
100 1.3% 20%  
101 1.5% 18%  
102 10% 17%  
103 1.2% 7%  
104 0.3% 5%  
105 3% 5%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.1% 0.5%  
108 0% 0.5%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 1.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 98.5%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 3% 89%  
69 2% 86%  
70 4% 85%  
71 4% 81%  
72 9% 76%  
73 9% 67%  
74 15% 58% Median
75 6% 43%  
76 8% 37%  
77 3% 29%  
78 5% 27%  
79 12% 22%  
80 2% 9%  
81 1.0% 7%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.0% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.1% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.6%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.8%  
62 1.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 98.5%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 3% 89%  
69 2% 86%  
70 4% 85%  
71 4% 81%  
72 9% 76%  
73 9% 67%  
74 15% 58% Median
75 6% 43%  
76 8% 37%  
77 3% 29%  
78 5% 27%  
79 12% 22%  
80 2% 9%  
81 1.0% 7%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.0% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.1% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.1% 0.6%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 1.5% 100%  
41 0.2% 98%  
42 0.8% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 1.4% 95%  
45 0.9% 94%  
46 7% 93%  
47 7% 86%  
48 24% 79%  
49 5% 54% Median
50 6% 49%  
51 5% 44%  
52 5% 39%  
53 15% 33%  
54 7% 18%  
55 5% 11% Last Result
56 2% 6%  
57 0.7% 4%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.4% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.4%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations