Opinion Poll by CURS, 11–18 June 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 34.0% 32.2–35.9% 31.7–36.5% 31.2–36.9% 30.4–37.8%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 22.0% 20.5–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.6% 18.9–25.4%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.0% 12.7–15.4% 12.3–15.8% 12.0–16.2% 11.4–16.9%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.2–14.1% 9.6–14.8%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.0% 3.4–4.9% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 119 112–128 110–130 108–132 105–135
Partidul Național Liberal 93 77 71–84 69–86 68–88 65–91
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 49 44–55 42–57 41–58 39–60
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 42 37–47 36–48 35–50 33–52
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 17 0–20 0–21 0–22 0–24
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 14 11–17 11–18 10–19 9–20
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.3%  
107 0.8% 98.8%  
108 1.3% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95% Last Result
111 2% 93%  
112 3% 91%  
113 3% 88%  
114 4% 85%  
115 5% 81%  
116 6% 76%  
117 7% 70%  
118 5% 62%  
119 8% 57% Median
120 8% 49%  
121 4% 42%  
122 9% 38%  
123 3% 29%  
124 4% 26%  
125 3% 22%  
126 4% 19%  
127 4% 15%  
128 3% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 1.4% 6%  
131 1.4% 5%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.5% 0.9%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.4%  
67 0.7% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 3% 91%  
72 3% 88%  
73 5% 84%  
74 10% 79%  
75 5% 69%  
76 7% 63%  
77 9% 57% Median
78 7% 47%  
79 7% 40%  
80 6% 33%  
81 5% 27%  
82 6% 23%  
83 5% 17%  
84 3% 12%  
85 3% 10%  
86 3% 7%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 97%  
43 3% 94%  
44 3% 91%  
45 8% 88%  
46 7% 80%  
47 10% 73%  
48 8% 63%  
49 12% 55% Median
50 8% 43%  
51 7% 35%  
52 6% 29%  
53 5% 23%  
54 5% 17%  
55 4% 12% Last Result
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.6% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.7%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
34 1.0% 99.4%  
35 1.4% 98%  
36 3% 97%  
37 4% 94%  
38 7% 90%  
39 8% 82%  
40 10% 74%  
41 9% 65%  
42 9% 55% Median
43 10% 46%  
44 9% 36%  
45 9% 27%  
46 6% 18%  
47 4% 12%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 5%  
50 1.3% 3%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 0% 51%  
7 0% 51%  
8 0% 51%  
9 0% 51%  
10 0% 51%  
11 0% 51%  
12 0% 51%  
13 0% 51%  
14 0% 51%  
15 0% 51%  
16 0% 51%  
17 12% 51% Median
18 12% 39%  
19 12% 27%  
20 8% 15%  
21 4% 7%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.2%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.8%  
10 4% 98.9%  
11 9% 95%  
12 15% 86%  
13 16% 72%  
14 17% 55% Median
15 14% 39%  
16 12% 25%  
17 7% 14%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 1.1%  
21 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 151 2% 140–159 138–162 136–164 133–167
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 140 0% 133–149 130–151 128–154 125–157
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 136 0% 126–146 124–148 121–150 118–153
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 126 0% 119–135 116–137 115–139 111–143
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 119 0% 112–128 110–130 108–132 105–135
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 101 0% 90–111 88–113 87–115 83–119
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 91 0% 84–99 83–101 81–103 78–106
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 88 0% 76–97 74–99 73–101 70–104
Partidul Național Liberal 93 77 0% 71–84 69–86 68–88 65–91
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 59 0% 47–70 45–72 44–73 42–75

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0.1% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.8%  
133 0.3% 99.6%  
134 0.4% 99.3%  
135 0.7% 98.9%  
136 1.2% 98%  
137 1.2% 97%  
138 1.4% 96%  
139 2% 94%  
140 4% 93%  
141 2% 89%  
142 2% 86%  
143 3% 84%  
144 5% 82%  
145 3% 77%  
146 4% 74%  
147 5% 70%  
148 5% 65%  
149 5% 60%  
150 4% 55%  
151 6% 51%  
152 5% 44%  
153 3% 39%  
154 7% 36%  
155 5% 28%  
156 3% 23%  
157 3% 20% Median
158 6% 17%  
159 2% 11%  
160 2% 9%  
161 1.2% 8%  
162 3% 6%  
163 1.0% 4%  
164 0.7% 3%  
165 0.6% 2% Majority
166 0.7% 1.3%  
167 0.3% 0.6%  
168 0.2% 0.4%  
169 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.3% 99.8%  
125 0.3% 99.5%  
126 0.5% 99.2%  
127 0.5% 98.7%  
128 1.5% 98%  
129 1.0% 97%  
130 1.0% 96%  
131 3% 95%  
132 0.8% 91%  
133 5% 90%  
134 2% 85%  
135 10% 83%  
136 3% 73%  
137 7% 71%  
138 4% 64%  
139 7% 60%  
140 6% 53% Median
141 5% 47%  
142 4% 43%  
143 3% 39%  
144 6% 36%  
145 3% 29%  
146 4% 26%  
147 5% 23%  
148 4% 18%  
149 4% 14%  
150 3% 10%  
151 3% 7%  
152 1.1% 5%  
153 0.8% 3%  
154 1.2% 3%  
155 0.4% 2%  
156 0.5% 1.1%  
157 0.2% 0.6%  
158 0.2% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.4%  
120 0.8% 99.1%  
121 1.0% 98%  
122 1.0% 97%  
123 1.2% 96%  
124 2% 95%  
125 2% 93%  
126 3% 91%  
127 3% 88%  
128 3% 85%  
129 4% 82%  
130 3% 78%  
131 4% 75%  
132 3% 71%  
133 4% 68%  
134 4% 63%  
135 4% 59%  
136 7% 55%  
137 2% 47%  
138 5% 45%  
139 3% 40%  
140 4% 37%  
141 4% 33%  
142 5% 29%  
143 7% 24% Median
144 3% 17%  
145 2% 15%  
146 3% 12%  
147 3% 9%  
148 2% 6% Last Result
149 1.1% 4%  
150 1.1% 3%  
151 0.9% 2%  
152 0.5% 1.2%  
153 0.2% 0.7%  
154 0.2% 0.4%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.2% 99.8%  
111 0.3% 99.7%  
112 0.4% 99.4%  
113 0.4% 98.9%  
114 0.8% 98.6%  
115 2% 98%  
116 1.5% 96%  
117 2% 95%  
118 2% 92%  
119 5% 90%  
120 3% 86%  
121 6% 82%  
122 3% 77%  
123 7% 74%  
124 7% 67%  
125 4% 60%  
126 8% 57% Median
127 5% 49%  
128 5% 44%  
129 5% 38%  
130 5% 33%  
131 5% 28%  
132 3% 24%  
133 4% 20%  
134 4% 16%  
135 3% 13%  
136 4% 10%  
137 1.4% 6%  
138 1.2% 4%  
139 1.2% 3%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.4% 2%  
142 0.6% 1.1%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0.1% 100%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.8%  
105 0.3% 99.6%  
106 0.4% 99.3%  
107 0.8% 98.8%  
108 1.3% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 95% Last Result
111 2% 93%  
112 3% 91%  
113 3% 88%  
114 4% 85%  
115 5% 81%  
116 6% 76%  
117 7% 70%  
118 5% 62%  
119 8% 57% Median
120 8% 49%  
121 4% 42%  
122 9% 38%  
123 3% 29%  
124 4% 26%  
125 3% 22%  
126 4% 19%  
127 4% 15%  
128 3% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 1.4% 6%  
131 1.4% 5%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.5% 1.4%  
135 0.5% 0.9%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.3% 99.4%  
85 0.5% 99.1%  
86 0.9% 98.5%  
87 2% 98%  
88 1.1% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 4% 93%  
91 3% 89%  
92 3% 87%  
93 5% 84%  
94 3% 79%  
95 4% 76%  
96 5% 72%  
97 4% 68%  
98 3% 64%  
99 4% 61%  
100 4% 57%  
101 3% 53%  
102 4% 50%  
103 3% 46%  
104 4% 43%  
105 7% 39%  
106 4% 32%  
107 6% 29%  
108 5% 23% Median
109 3% 18%  
110 4% 15%  
111 2% 11%  
112 3% 9%  
113 2% 6%  
114 1.2% 4% Last Result
115 1.1% 3%  
116 0.5% 2%  
117 0.8% 2%  
118 0.3% 0.8%  
119 0.3% 0.5%  
120 0.1% 0.3%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.3%  
80 0.7% 98.9%  
81 1.1% 98%  
82 1.5% 97%  
83 4% 96%  
84 3% 92%  
85 4% 89%  
86 6% 86%  
87 5% 80%  
88 7% 75%  
89 5% 68%  
90 10% 63%  
91 6% 53% Median
92 6% 47%  
93 8% 42%  
94 5% 34%  
95 5% 29%  
96 5% 25%  
97 4% 19%  
98 3% 15%  
99 4% 13%  
100 3% 9%  
101 1.2% 6%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.0% 3%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.1%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.2% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.0%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 2% 92%  
77 4% 90%  
78 4% 86%  
79 4% 81%  
80 3% 77%  
81 4% 74%  
82 5% 70%  
83 4% 65%  
84 3% 62%  
85 3% 59%  
86 3% 55%  
87 2% 52%  
88 4% 50%  
89 3% 47%  
90 2% 44%  
91 6% 41%  
92 3% 35%  
93 5% 33% Last Result
94 6% 27% Median
95 4% 21%  
96 5% 17%  
97 3% 12%  
98 2% 9%  
99 2% 7%  
100 1.2% 5%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.0% 2%  
103 0.6% 1.4%  
104 0.3% 0.8%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.4%  
67 0.7% 99.0%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 4% 95%  
71 3% 91%  
72 3% 88%  
73 5% 84%  
74 10% 79%  
75 5% 69%  
76 7% 63%  
77 9% 57% Median
78 7% 47%  
79 7% 40%  
80 6% 33%  
81 5% 27%  
82 6% 23%  
83 5% 17%  
84 3% 12%  
85 3% 10%  
86 3% 7%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 99.1%  
44 2% 98.5%  
45 3% 97%  
46 4% 94%  
47 5% 90%  
48 4% 85%  
49 5% 80%  
50 3% 76%  
51 2% 72%  
52 2% 70%  
53 3% 68%  
54 3% 65%  
55 3% 62% Last Result
56 3% 59%  
57 3% 56%  
58 3% 53%  
59 1.2% 51%  
60 3% 49%  
61 2% 46%  
62 3% 45%  
63 3% 41%  
64 2% 39%  
65 2% 36%  
66 4% 34% Median
67 5% 30%  
68 7% 25%  
69 3% 18%  
70 6% 15%  
71 4% 10%  
72 3% 6%  
73 1.4% 3%  
74 0.8% 1.4%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations