Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 20–24 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.0% 33.0–37.1% 32.4–37.7% 31.9–38.2% 31.0–39.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 21.0% 19.3–22.8% 18.9–23.3% 18.5–23.8% 17.7–24.7%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 15.0% 13.6–16.6% 13.2–17.1% 12.8–17.5% 12.1–18.3%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 118 109–126 108–128 106–130 103–135
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 65–77 63–78 62–81 59–84
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 50 45–55 44–57 42–58 40–62
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 47 42–52 41–53 40–55 37–58
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 17 14–20 13–21 12–22 11–24
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0–19 0–20 0–21 0–23
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.5%  
104 0.4% 99.1%  
105 0.7% 98.7%  
106 0.6% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 2% 95%  
109 4% 93%  
110 4% 90% Last Result
111 3% 86%  
112 3% 83%  
113 5% 80%  
114 4% 75%  
115 5% 71%  
116 6% 65%  
117 7% 59%  
118 6% 52% Median
119 6% 46%  
120 6% 41%  
121 6% 35%  
122 6% 29%  
123 3% 23%  
124 3% 19%  
125 5% 16%  
126 3% 11%  
127 2% 8%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.4% 4%  
130 1.2% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.3% 1.3%  
133 0.3% 1.0%  
134 0.3% 0.8%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.2% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 0.6% 99.1%  
61 1.0% 98.5%  
62 1.5% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 7% 87%  
67 7% 80%  
68 6% 73%  
69 6% 67%  
70 9% 61%  
71 6% 52% Median
72 6% 46%  
73 8% 41%  
74 9% 33%  
75 6% 24%  
76 3% 18%  
77 6% 15%  
78 5% 9%  
79 0.8% 4%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.6%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.5%  
42 1.3% 98.8%  
43 1.5% 97%  
44 3% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 5% 89%  
47 8% 84%  
48 8% 75%  
49 11% 67%  
50 9% 56% Median
51 14% 47%  
52 10% 34%  
53 5% 24%  
54 6% 19%  
55 3% 13%  
56 4% 9%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.1% 4%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.5% 2%  
61 0.4% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.7%  
38 0.4% 99.3%  
39 1.2% 98.9%  
40 2% 98%  
41 3% 96%  
42 3% 93%  
43 6% 90%  
44 7% 84%  
45 6% 77%  
46 7% 71%  
47 13% 63% Median
48 12% 50%  
49 10% 37%  
50 9% 27%  
51 6% 18%  
52 5% 13%  
53 3% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.2% 3% Last Result
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.6% 1.1%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.9% 99.8%  
12 3% 98.9%  
13 6% 96%  
14 9% 90%  
15 15% 81%  
16 14% 66%  
17 16% 52% Median
18 14% 36%  
19 6% 22%  
20 7% 16%  
21 5% 9% Last Result
22 2% 4%  
23 0.9% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 49%  
2 0% 49%  
3 0% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 0% 49%  
8 0% 49%  
9 0% 49%  
10 0% 49%  
11 0% 49%  
12 0% 49%  
13 0% 49%  
14 0% 49%  
15 0% 49%  
16 8% 49%  
17 16% 42%  
18 7% 25%  
19 10% 18%  
20 4% 9%  
21 2% 5%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.7%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 144 0% 135–153 133–155 131–157 126–160
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 135 0% 127–143 124–145 122–147 118–150
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 126 0% 117–137 116–139 113–141 110–144
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 118 0% 109–126 108–128 106–130 103–135
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 118 0% 111–126 108–127 106–129 102–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 96 0% 87–107 84–109 82–111 79–115
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 88 0% 81–95 79–97 77–99 74–102
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 80 0% 69–91 67–92 66–94 62–98
Partidul Național Liberal 93 71 0% 65–77 63–78 62–81 59–84
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 56 0% 46–67 44–69 43–71 40–74

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.3% 99.7%  
127 0.3% 99.4%  
128 0.2% 99.1%  
129 0.7% 98.9%  
130 0.5% 98%  
131 1.4% 98%  
132 0.8% 96%  
133 2% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 6% 92% Median
136 3% 86%  
137 3% 83%  
138 4% 80%  
139 6% 76%  
140 4% 70%  
141 6% 66%  
142 5% 60%  
143 4% 55%  
144 3% 51%  
145 5% 48%  
146 5% 43%  
147 5% 38%  
148 4% 33%  
149 3% 29%  
150 5% 26%  
151 4% 21%  
152 3% 17%  
153 5% 14%  
154 3% 9%  
155 1.4% 6%  
156 2% 5%  
157 1.3% 3%  
158 0.7% 2%  
159 0.6% 1.4%  
160 0.4% 0.9%  
161 0.2% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.5%  
119 0.5% 99.4%  
120 0.6% 98.9%  
121 0.3% 98%  
122 0.5% 98%  
123 2% 97%  
124 1.0% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 3% 93%  
127 2% 90%  
128 3% 88%  
129 5% 85%  
130 3% 80%  
131 6% 77%  
132 6% 71%  
133 3% 65%  
134 5% 61%  
135 9% 57% Median
136 5% 47%  
137 6% 42%  
138 6% 36%  
139 6% 31%  
140 4% 24%  
141 6% 21%  
142 4% 15%  
143 3% 11%  
144 2% 8%  
145 1.4% 6%  
146 1.0% 5%  
147 2% 4%  
148 0.4% 2%  
149 0.4% 1.2%  
150 0.3% 0.8%  
151 0.1% 0.5%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0.1% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.2% 99.5%  
111 0.6% 99.3%  
112 0.5% 98.8%  
113 1.0% 98%  
114 0.6% 97%  
115 1.5% 97%  
116 2% 95%  
117 5% 93%  
118 2% 88% Median
119 3% 86%  
120 5% 83%  
121 2% 79%  
122 6% 76%  
123 6% 70%  
124 5% 64%  
125 2% 59%  
126 9% 57%  
127 1.4% 48%  
128 4% 47%  
129 3% 43%  
130 3% 40%  
131 4% 37%  
132 5% 33%  
133 4% 29%  
134 5% 24%  
135 4% 20%  
136 4% 16%  
137 2% 12%  
138 3% 10%  
139 3% 7%  
140 2% 4%  
141 0.5% 3%  
142 1.1% 2%  
143 0.3% 1.1%  
144 0.4% 0.8%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1% Last Result
149 0% 0%  

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.7%  
103 0.4% 99.5%  
104 0.4% 99.1%  
105 0.7% 98.7%  
106 0.6% 98%  
107 2% 97%  
108 2% 95%  
109 4% 93%  
110 4% 90% Last Result
111 3% 86%  
112 3% 83%  
113 5% 80%  
114 4% 75%  
115 5% 71%  
116 6% 65%  
117 7% 59%  
118 6% 52% Median
119 6% 46%  
120 6% 41%  
121 6% 35%  
122 6% 29%  
123 3% 23%  
124 3% 19%  
125 5% 16%  
126 3% 11%  
127 2% 8%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.4% 4%  
130 1.2% 3%  
131 0.5% 2%  
132 0.3% 1.3%  
133 0.3% 1.0%  
134 0.3% 0.8%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.2% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.1%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.4% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.2%  
104 0.5% 98.9%  
105 0.6% 98%  
106 0.7% 98%  
107 0.8% 97%  
108 2% 96%  
109 2% 94%  
110 2% 92%  
111 3% 90%  
112 4% 88%  
113 4% 84%  
114 5% 80%  
115 6% 75%  
116 7% 69%  
117 9% 63%  
118 4% 54% Median
119 5% 49%  
120 8% 45%  
121 4% 37%  
122 9% 33%  
123 6% 24%  
124 4% 18%  
125 2% 14%  
126 7% 12%  
127 0.7% 5%  
128 2% 5%  
129 0.7% 3%  
130 0.8% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.3%  
132 0.3% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.7%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.7% 99.3%  
81 0.4% 98.7%  
82 0.9% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 1.4% 96%  
85 2% 94%  
86 2% 92%  
87 4% 90%  
88 5% 86% Median
89 2% 81%  
90 4% 79%  
91 6% 74%  
92 2% 69%  
93 6% 67%  
94 2% 60%  
95 5% 58%  
96 3% 53%  
97 3% 50%  
98 2% 47%  
99 6% 45%  
100 4% 39%  
101 5% 36%  
102 3% 31%  
103 6% 28%  
104 3% 22%  
105 4% 19%  
106 4% 15%  
107 3% 11%  
108 2% 8%  
109 1.2% 6%  
110 1.2% 4%  
111 1.2% 3%  
112 0.4% 2%  
113 0.6% 1.5%  
114 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
115 0.4% 0.7%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.4%  
76 0.8% 98.9%  
77 1.2% 98%  
78 1.1% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 2% 93%  
81 3% 90%  
82 6% 87%  
83 4% 81%  
84 8% 78%  
85 5% 70%  
86 4% 65%  
87 8% 60%  
88 8% 52% Median
89 7% 44%  
90 6% 37%  
91 8% 31%  
92 3% 23%  
93 7% 21%  
94 2% 14%  
95 5% 12%  
96 2% 8%  
97 2% 6%  
98 0.7% 4%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.9%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.3% 99.4%  
64 0.4% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 2% 94%  
69 3% 92%  
70 6% 89%  
71 3% 84% Median
72 2% 81%  
73 5% 79%  
74 6% 74%  
75 4% 68%  
76 2% 64%  
77 5% 62%  
78 5% 56%  
79 1.5% 52%  
80 3% 50%  
81 2% 47%  
82 3% 45%  
83 3% 42%  
84 3% 39%  
85 6% 36%  
86 5% 30%  
87 5% 26%  
88 4% 21%  
89 2% 16%  
90 3% 14%  
91 3% 11%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.1% 5% Last Result
94 1.5% 4%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 0.6% 99.1%  
61 1.0% 98.5%  
62 1.5% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 7% 87%  
67 7% 80%  
68 6% 73%  
69 6% 67%  
70 9% 61%  
71 6% 52% Median
72 6% 46%  
73 8% 41%  
74 9% 33%  
75 6% 24%  
76 3% 18%  
77 6% 15%  
78 5% 9%  
79 0.8% 4%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.6%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.3% 99.6%  
41 0.7% 99.4%  
42 0.7% 98.6%  
43 2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 3% 94%  
46 3% 91%  
47 6% 87% Median
48 9% 81%  
49 5% 72%  
50 4% 67%  
51 4% 63%  
52 3% 59%  
53 2% 55%  
54 2% 53%  
55 0.9% 51% Last Result
56 1.5% 50%  
57 2% 49%  
58 2% 47%  
59 2% 45%  
60 3% 43%  
61 4% 40%  
62 2% 37%  
63 5% 35%  
64 6% 30%  
65 4% 24%  
66 7% 20%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 7%  
70 1.4% 4%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations