Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 14–21 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 37.0% 35.0–39.1% 34.4–39.7% 33.9–40.2% 32.9–41.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 20.0% 18.4–21.8% 17.9–22.3% 17.5–22.7% 16.8–23.6%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 14.0% 12.6–15.6% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.2%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.3–15.0% 11.0–15.4% 10.3–16.1%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 3.9–6.4% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
PRO România 4.1% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 128 120–137 120–140 117–140 112–142
Partidul Național Liberal 93 68 64–75 62–77 60–79 57–82
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 49 43–54 41–56 40–57 38–59
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 44 39–50 38–53 37–53 36–56
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 17 14–20 13–21 12–22 11–25
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0–17 0–18 0–19
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0–17 0–17 0–18 0–20
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.3% 100%  
109 0% 99.7%  
110 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
111 0% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0.2% 99.4%  
114 0.8% 99.2%  
115 0.3% 98%  
116 0.2% 98%  
117 0.6% 98%  
118 1.1% 97%  
119 0.5% 96%  
120 8% 96%  
121 1.0% 88%  
122 3% 87%  
123 3% 84%  
124 8% 81%  
125 5% 73%  
126 13% 69%  
127 3% 56%  
128 6% 53% Median
129 3% 47%  
130 0.4% 44%  
131 5% 43%  
132 10% 38%  
133 4% 28%  
134 8% 24%  
135 0.6% 16%  
136 1.0% 16%  
137 8% 15%  
138 0.8% 7%  
139 0.3% 7%  
140 5% 6%  
141 0.8% 1.3%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 3% 94%  
64 3% 91%  
65 3% 87%  
66 11% 84%  
67 13% 73%  
68 12% 60% Median
69 3% 47%  
70 4% 44%  
71 19% 40%  
72 3% 22%  
73 7% 19%  
74 1.2% 12%  
75 4% 11%  
76 1.4% 7%  
77 1.4% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.4% 3%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.7%  
39 0.4% 99.4%  
40 4% 99.1%  
41 1.1% 95%  
42 2% 94%  
43 4% 92%  
44 6% 88%  
45 5% 82%  
46 14% 77%  
47 7% 63%  
48 4% 56%  
49 13% 53% Median
50 11% 40%  
51 3% 28%  
52 3% 25%  
53 11% 22%  
54 4% 11%  
55 1.0% 6%  
56 2% 5%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.3% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.5%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.6%  
37 2% 98%  
38 5% 97%  
39 3% 92%  
40 2% 89%  
41 5% 87%  
42 10% 82%  
43 13% 73%  
44 11% 59% Median
45 9% 48%  
46 6% 40%  
47 2% 34%  
48 4% 32%  
49 6% 28%  
50 12% 22%  
51 2% 10%  
52 1.1% 8%  
53 5% 7%  
54 0.3% 1.3%  
55 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.8%  
12 3% 99.3%  
13 4% 96%  
14 11% 92%  
15 3% 81%  
16 11% 78%  
17 19% 67% Median
18 10% 48%  
19 20% 38%  
20 11% 17%  
21 2% 6% Last Result
22 2% 4%  
23 0.6% 2%  
24 0.8% 1.3%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 0% 7%  
8 0% 7%  
9 0% 7%  
10 0% 7%  
11 0% 7%  
12 0% 7%  
13 0% 7%  
14 0% 7%  
15 0% 7%  
16 0.6% 7%  
17 3% 7%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 1.1%  
20 0.3% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 87% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 13%  
2 0% 13%  
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 0% 13%  
8 0% 13%  
9 0% 13%  
10 0% 13%  
11 0% 13%  
12 0% 13%  
13 0% 13%  
14 0% 13%  
15 0% 13%  
16 0.1% 13%  
17 10% 13%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 1.3%  
20 0.7% 0.8%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 132 0% 125–142 121–146 121–147 118–148
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 131 0% 124–140 121–142 120–143 116–147
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 128 0% 120–137 120–140 117–140 112–142
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 115 0% 109–124 105–128 104–129 102–134
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 115 0% 107–122 104–124 103–124 99–130
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 86 0% 82–96 79–101 77–104 74–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 86 0% 80–92 78–95 77–97 74–101
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 70 0% 64–78 62–84 61–85 58–90
Partidul Național Liberal 93 68 0% 64–75 62–77 60–79 57–82
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 45 0% 40–53 38–60 37–60 36–66

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.3% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.6%  
119 1.1% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 3% 98%  
122 1.3% 95%  
123 0.8% 94%  
124 2% 93%  
125 5% 91%  
126 1.1% 86%  
127 2% 85%  
128 7% 83%  
129 9% 77% Median
130 2% 68%  
131 15% 66%  
132 3% 51%  
133 13% 48%  
134 3% 35%  
135 6% 33%  
136 4% 27%  
137 1.5% 23%  
138 2% 22%  
139 3% 19%  
140 2% 17%  
141 2% 15%  
142 4% 13%  
143 3% 9%  
144 1.0% 6%  
145 0.2% 5%  
146 0.5% 5%  
147 4% 5%  
148 0.6% 1.1%  
149 0.1% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.5% 99.7%  
117 0.1% 99.1%  
118 0.1% 99.0%  
119 1.3% 98.9%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 4% 97%  
122 1.4% 93%  
123 0.8% 92%  
124 2% 91%  
125 6% 89%  
126 1.3% 83%  
127 2% 82%  
128 7% 80%  
129 9% 73% Median
130 5% 63%  
131 15% 59%  
132 3% 44%  
133 12% 41%  
134 3% 29%  
135 6% 26%  
136 4% 20%  
137 1.4% 17%  
138 2% 15%  
139 2% 13%  
140 1.3% 11%  
141 2% 10%  
142 4% 8%  
143 2% 4%  
144 0.8% 2%  
145 0.1% 1.4%  
146 0.1% 1.3%  
147 0.7% 1.2%  
148 0.4% 0.5%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.3% 100%  
109 0% 99.7%  
110 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
111 0% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0.2% 99.4%  
114 0.8% 99.2%  
115 0.3% 98%  
116 0.2% 98%  
117 0.6% 98%  
118 1.1% 97%  
119 0.5% 96%  
120 8% 96%  
121 1.0% 88%  
122 3% 87%  
123 3% 84%  
124 8% 81%  
125 5% 73%  
126 13% 69%  
127 3% 56%  
128 6% 53% Median
129 3% 47%  
130 0.4% 44%  
131 5% 43%  
132 10% 38%  
133 4% 28%  
134 8% 24%  
135 0.6% 16%  
136 1.0% 16%  
137 8% 15%  
138 0.8% 7%  
139 0.3% 7%  
140 5% 6%  
141 0.8% 1.3%  
142 0.1% 0.5%  
143 0.2% 0.4%  
144 0% 0.2%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0% 99.6%  
101 0% 99.6%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 2% 99.2%  
104 2% 98%  
105 0.5% 95%  
106 0.6% 95%  
107 2% 94%  
108 0.5% 92%  
109 14% 92%  
110 0.9% 78%  
111 9% 77%  
112 6% 68% Median
113 2% 61%  
114 0.6% 59%  
115 10% 58%  
116 16% 48%  
117 2% 32%  
118 3% 30%  
119 0.3% 27%  
120 1.2% 27%  
121 5% 26%  
122 5% 21%  
123 3% 16%  
124 6% 13%  
125 0.6% 7%  
126 0.6% 6%  
127 0.2% 6%  
128 3% 5%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.3%  
132 0.1% 0.9%  
133 0.1% 0.9%  
134 0.4% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.3% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.7%  
99 0.2% 99.5%  
100 0% 99.3%  
101 0.2% 99.3%  
102 0.4% 99.1%  
103 2% 98.6%  
104 3% 97%  
105 1.2% 94%  
106 0.6% 93%  
107 2% 92%  
108 0.7% 90%  
109 14% 89%  
110 1.1% 75%  
111 12% 74%  
112 7% 62% Median
113 2% 55%  
114 0.5% 53%  
115 11% 52%  
116 17% 42%  
117 2% 25%  
118 3% 23%  
119 0.3% 20%  
120 1.0% 20%  
121 4% 19%  
122 5% 15%  
123 2% 10%  
124 6% 8%  
125 0.3% 2%  
126 0% 1.4%  
127 0.1% 1.3%  
128 0.2% 1.2%  
129 0.3% 1.1%  
130 0.5% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.3%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 98.9%  
76 0.7% 98.6%  
77 0.7% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 0.9% 96%  
80 3% 95%  
81 2% 92%  
82 2% 90%  
83 13% 88%  
84 3% 75%  
85 8% 72% Median
86 16% 64%  
87 6% 48%  
88 9% 42%  
89 6% 33%  
90 4% 27%  
91 3% 23%  
92 4% 21%  
93 3% 17%  
94 1.2% 14%  
95 2% 13%  
96 1.5% 11%  
97 2% 9%  
98 1.1% 8%  
99 0.8% 7%  
100 0.6% 6%  
101 1.3% 5%  
102 0.7% 4%  
103 0.1% 3%  
104 3% 3%  
105 0.1% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.7%  
107 0.2% 0.7%  
108 0.2% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1% Last Result
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 1.0% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 98.6%  
76 0.9% 98%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 3% 93%  
81 2% 90%  
82 3% 88%  
83 14% 85%  
84 3% 72%  
85 8% 68% Median
86 16% 60%  
87 9% 44%  
88 9% 35%  
89 6% 26%  
90 4% 20%  
91 2% 16%  
92 4% 14%  
93 3% 10%  
94 1.2% 7%  
95 1.2% 6%  
96 1.3% 5%  
97 1.4% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.2% 1.3%  
100 0.4% 1.1%  
101 0.6% 0.7%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0%  
108 0% 0%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.6%  
59 0.4% 99.4%  
60 1.3% 99.0%  
61 1.0% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 2% 95%  
64 3% 93%  
65 3% 89%  
66 11% 86%  
67 13% 76%  
68 9% 63% Median
69 3% 53%  
70 4% 51%  
71 19% 47%  
72 2% 28%  
73 6% 26%  
74 1.2% 20%  
75 4% 18%  
76 2% 14%  
77 2% 13%  
78 2% 11%  
79 0.8% 9%  
80 1.5% 8%  
81 0.9% 7%  
82 0.3% 6%  
83 0.6% 6%  
84 0.2% 5%  
85 3% 5%  
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.3% 1.3%  
88 0.3% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.3% 0.6%  
91 0% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.2% Last Result
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 1.2% 97%  
62 2% 96%  
63 3% 94%  
64 3% 91%  
65 3% 87%  
66 11% 84%  
67 13% 73%  
68 12% 60% Median
69 3% 47%  
70 4% 44%  
71 19% 40%  
72 3% 22%  
73 7% 19%  
74 1.2% 12%  
75 4% 11%  
76 1.4% 7%  
77 1.4% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.4% 3%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.1%  
38 5% 97%  
39 3% 93%  
40 1.1% 90%  
41 5% 89%  
42 9% 84%  
43 11% 76%  
44 11% 65% Median
45 8% 54%  
46 5% 46%  
47 2% 40%  
48 3% 39%  
49 6% 35%  
50 12% 29%  
51 2% 17%  
52 1.3% 15%  
53 5% 14%  
54 0.7% 8%  
55 0.6% 8% Last Result
56 0.4% 7%  
57 0.9% 7%  
58 0.4% 6%  
59 0.4% 5%  
60 3% 5%  
61 0.3% 2%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 0.1% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.9%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations