Opinion Poll by INSCOP, 15–25 October 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.5% 33.6–37.3% 33.1–37.9% 32.7–38.3% 31.8–39.2%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 21.9% 20.4–23.6% 19.9–24.1% 19.6–24.5% 18.8–25.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 14.2% 12.9–15.6% 12.5–16.0% 12.2–16.4% 11.7–17.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 12.4% 11.2–13.7% 10.8–14.1% 10.5–14.4% 10.0–15.1%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
PRO România 4.1% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Alianța pentru Patrie 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 124 118–130 116–133 115–134 112–137
Partidul Național Liberal 93 78 71–82 70–84 69–85 66–88
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 50 45–54 44–55 43–57 41–60
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 43 38–48 38–49 37–50 35–53
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 18 15–21 14–22 13–22 12–24
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alianța pentru Patrie 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.4% 99.4%  
114 1.3% 99.1%  
115 0.9% 98%  
116 2% 97%  
117 2% 95%  
118 3% 93%  
119 7% 90%  
120 6% 83%  
121 6% 77%  
122 9% 71%  
123 11% 62%  
124 5% 52% Median
125 5% 47%  
126 16% 42%  
127 4% 26%  
128 6% 22%  
129 3% 16%  
130 3% 13%  
131 3% 10%  
132 1.1% 6%  
133 2% 5%  
134 1.1% 3%  
135 1.0% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.1%  
137 0.2% 0.6%  
138 0.2% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 0.8% 98.7%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 3% 92%  
72 5% 89%  
73 3% 85%  
74 6% 82%  
75 6% 76%  
76 9% 70%  
77 10% 61%  
78 8% 51% Median
79 11% 44%  
80 9% 32%  
81 10% 24%  
82 5% 14%  
83 2% 8%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.6% 99.6%  
42 0.4% 99.0%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 4% 97%  
45 4% 93%  
46 15% 89%  
47 6% 73%  
48 6% 68%  
49 7% 62%  
50 15% 55% Median
51 11% 40%  
52 5% 30%  
53 10% 25%  
54 7% 15%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.0% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 0.3% 1.1%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.3% 99.6%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 2% 98.5%  
38 6% 96%  
39 4% 90%  
40 4% 86%  
41 4% 82%  
42 18% 78%  
43 21% 60% Median
44 11% 40%  
45 7% 29%  
46 3% 22%  
47 7% 19%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.3% 1.1%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 1.2% 99.7%  
13 2% 98.5%  
14 4% 97%  
15 9% 92%  
16 17% 83%  
17 15% 66%  
18 20% 51% Median
19 9% 31%  
20 8% 22%  
21 8% 14% Last Result
22 3% 5%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alianța pentru Patrie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Patrie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 169 139 0% 131–145 130–146 128–148 125–150
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 139 0% 131–145 130–146 128–148 125–150
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 124 0% 118–130 117–133 115–134 112–137
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 121 0% 114–126 112–129 111–130 108–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 121 0% 114–126 112–129 111–130 108–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 114 96 0% 89–100 87–101 85–103 82–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 96 0% 89–100 87–101 85–103 82–107
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 78 0% 71–82 70–84 69–85 66–88
Partidul Național Liberal 93 78 0% 71–82 70–84 69–85 66–88
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 43 0% 39–48 38–49 37–50 35–53

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.5% 99.7%  
126 0.9% 99.2%  
127 0.5% 98%  
128 0.4% 98%  
129 1.4% 97%  
130 4% 96%  
131 4% 92%  
132 2% 88%  
133 2% 87%  
134 5% 85%  
135 9% 80%  
136 5% 72%  
137 3% 66%  
138 5% 63%  
139 14% 58% Median
140 20% 44%  
141 6% 24%  
142 2% 18%  
143 2% 17%  
144 2% 14%  
145 7% 12%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.0% 4%  
148 1.2% 3%  
149 0.4% 1.3%  
150 0.5% 0.9%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.5% 99.7%  
126 0.9% 99.2%  
127 0.5% 98%  
128 0.4% 98%  
129 1.4% 97%  
130 4% 96%  
131 4% 92%  
132 2% 88%  
133 2% 87%  
134 5% 85%  
135 9% 80%  
136 5% 72%  
137 3% 66%  
138 5% 63%  
139 14% 58% Median
140 20% 44%  
141 6% 24%  
142 2% 18%  
143 2% 16%  
144 2% 14%  
145 7% 12%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.0% 3%  
148 1.2% 3%  
149 0.4% 1.3%  
150 0.5% 0.9%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0.1% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 1.3% 99.1%  
115 0.9% 98%  
116 2% 97%  
117 2% 95%  
118 3% 93%  
119 7% 90%  
120 6% 83%  
121 6% 77%  
122 9% 71%  
123 11% 63%  
124 5% 52% Median
125 5% 47%  
126 16% 42%  
127 4% 26%  
128 6% 22%  
129 3% 16%  
130 3% 13%  
131 3% 10%  
132 1.1% 6%  
133 2% 5%  
134 1.1% 3%  
135 1.0% 2%  
136 0.5% 1.2%  
137 0.2% 0.7%  
138 0.2% 0.5%  
139 0.1% 0.3%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.5% 99.4%  
110 0.6% 99.0%  
111 1.5% 98%  
112 3% 97%  
113 2% 94%  
114 3% 93%  
115 5% 89%  
116 3% 85%  
117 6% 81%  
118 5% 75%  
119 5% 70%  
120 11% 65%  
121 7% 54% Median
122 10% 47%  
123 17% 37%  
124 6% 21%  
125 3% 15%  
126 3% 12%  
127 1.1% 8%  
128 2% 7%  
129 1.4% 5%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.1%  
133 0.4% 0.7%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.5% 99.4%  
110 0.6% 98.9%  
111 1.5% 98%  
112 3% 97%  
113 2% 94%  
114 3% 93%  
115 5% 89%  
116 3% 85%  
117 6% 81%  
118 5% 75%  
119 5% 70%  
120 11% 65%  
121 7% 54% Median
122 10% 47%  
123 17% 37%  
124 6% 21%  
125 3% 15%  
126 3% 12%  
127 1.1% 8%  
128 2% 7%  
129 1.4% 5%  
130 2% 4%  
131 0.7% 2%  
132 0.4% 1.1%  
133 0.4% 0.7%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.7% 99.7%  
83 0.3% 99.0%  
84 0.5% 98.7%  
85 0.7% 98%  
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 94%  
89 2% 90%  
90 3% 88%  
91 4% 85%  
92 7% 81%  
93 10% 74%  
94 4% 64%  
95 6% 60%  
96 7% 53% Median
97 22% 46%  
98 8% 24%  
99 2% 17%  
100 6% 14%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 5%  
103 0.8% 3%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.4%  
106 0.4% 1.0%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.7% 99.7%  
83 0.3% 99.0%  
84 0.5% 98.7%  
85 0.7% 98%  
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 94%  
89 2% 90%  
90 3% 88%  
91 4% 85%  
92 7% 81%  
93 10% 74%  
94 4% 64%  
95 6% 60%  
96 7% 53% Median
97 22% 46%  
98 8% 24%  
99 2% 17%  
100 6% 14%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 5%  
103 0.8% 3%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 0.8% 98.7%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 3% 92%  
72 5% 89%  
73 3% 85%  
74 6% 82%  
75 6% 76%  
76 9% 70%  
77 10% 61%  
78 8% 51% Median
79 11% 44%  
80 9% 32%  
81 10% 24%  
82 5% 14%  
83 2% 9%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 0.8% 98.7%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 3% 92%  
72 5% 89%  
73 3% 85%  
74 6% 82%  
75 6% 76%  
76 9% 70%  
77 10% 61%  
78 8% 51% Median
79 11% 44%  
80 9% 32%  
81 10% 24%  
82 5% 14%  
83 2% 8%  
84 3% 7%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.2% 99.8%  
35 0.3% 99.6%  
36 0.8% 99.3%  
37 2% 98.5%  
38 6% 96%  
39 4% 90%  
40 4% 86%  
41 4% 82%  
42 18% 78%  
43 21% 60% Median
44 11% 40%  
45 7% 29%  
46 3% 22%  
47 7% 19%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 2%  
52 0.3% 1.1%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations