Opinion Poll by Avangarde, 17–26 October 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Social Democrat |
28.9% |
39.9% |
37.8–42.0% |
37.2–42.6% |
36.7–43.1% |
35.8–44.2% |
Partidul Național Liberal |
25.2% |
17.0% |
15.5–18.7% |
15.0–19.2% |
14.7–19.6% |
14.0–20.4% |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor |
9.1% |
14.0% |
12.6–15.6% |
12.2–16.0% |
11.9–16.4% |
11.2–17.2% |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS |
15.4% |
13.0% |
11.7–14.5% |
11.3–15.0% |
11.0–15.4% |
10.3–16.1% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
5.7% |
5.0% |
4.2–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.7–6.6% |
3.4–7.2% |
Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
4.8% |
4.0% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.0% |
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) |
0.0% |
4.0% |
3.3–5.0% |
3.1–5.2% |
2.9–5.5% |
2.6–6.0% |
PRO România |
4.1% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.9% |
2.2–4.1% |
2.1–4.3% |
1.8–4.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Partidul Social Democrat
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-partidulsocialdemocrat.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
119 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
122 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
123 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
125 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
127 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
128 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
129 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
130 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
131 |
2% |
93% |
|
132 |
3% |
91% |
|
133 |
3% |
87% |
|
134 |
9% |
84% |
|
135 |
3% |
74% |
|
136 |
4% |
71% |
|
137 |
5% |
67% |
|
138 |
22% |
62% |
Median |
139 |
3% |
40% |
|
140 |
5% |
37% |
|
141 |
4% |
32% |
|
142 |
4% |
28% |
|
143 |
6% |
24% |
|
144 |
2% |
17% |
|
145 |
3% |
15% |
|
146 |
3% |
13% |
|
147 |
2% |
10% |
|
148 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
149 |
2% |
7% |
|
150 |
2% |
5% |
|
151 |
2% |
3% |
|
152 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
155 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-partidulnaționalliberal.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
51 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
52 |
3% |
96% |
|
53 |
3% |
94% |
|
54 |
5% |
91% |
|
55 |
4% |
85% |
|
56 |
5% |
81% |
|
57 |
6% |
75% |
|
58 |
19% |
70% |
|
59 |
5% |
50% |
Median |
60 |
8% |
46% |
|
61 |
9% |
37% |
|
62 |
7% |
28% |
|
63 |
3% |
22% |
|
64 |
3% |
18% |
|
65 |
7% |
15% |
|
66 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
67 |
3% |
7% |
|
68 |
3% |
4% |
|
69 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-alianțapentruunirearomânilor.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
40 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
41 |
2% |
98% |
|
42 |
5% |
97% |
|
43 |
3% |
91% |
|
44 |
5% |
88% |
|
45 |
4% |
83% |
|
46 |
6% |
78% |
|
47 |
7% |
73% |
|
48 |
11% |
66% |
|
49 |
11% |
55% |
Median |
50 |
6% |
44% |
|
51 |
9% |
38% |
|
52 |
15% |
28% |
|
53 |
2% |
13% |
|
54 |
1.4% |
11% |
|
55 |
4% |
9% |
|
56 |
2% |
5% |
|
57 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
58 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
59 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
60 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-alianța2020usr-plus.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
37 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
38 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
39 |
3% |
96% |
|
40 |
4% |
93% |
|
41 |
8% |
89% |
|
42 |
8% |
82% |
|
43 |
5% |
74% |
|
44 |
11% |
69% |
|
45 |
17% |
58% |
Median |
46 |
9% |
42% |
|
47 |
8% |
33% |
|
48 |
7% |
25% |
|
49 |
5% |
18% |
|
50 |
2% |
12% |
|
51 |
6% |
10% |
|
52 |
1.4% |
4% |
|
53 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
57 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-uniuneademocratămaghiarădinromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
10 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
11 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
12 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
3% |
98% |
|
14 |
12% |
96% |
|
15 |
11% |
83% |
|
16 |
9% |
73% |
|
17 |
10% |
63% |
|
18 |
11% |
53% |
Median |
19 |
26% |
42% |
|
20 |
5% |
16% |
|
21 |
3% |
11% |
Last Result |
22 |
5% |
8% |
|
23 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
24 |
2% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Mișcarea Populară
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-partidulmișcareapopulară.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
91% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
9% |
|
2 |
0% |
9% |
|
3 |
0% |
9% |
|
4 |
0% |
9% |
|
5 |
0% |
9% |
|
6 |
0% |
9% |
|
7 |
0% |
9% |
|
8 |
0% |
9% |
|
9 |
0% |
9% |
|
10 |
0% |
9% |
|
11 |
0% |
9% |
|
12 |
0% |
9% |
|
13 |
0% |
9% |
|
14 |
0% |
9% |
|
15 |
0% |
9% |
|
16 |
2% |
9% |
|
17 |
3% |
7% |
|
18 |
3% |
4% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
1.5% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-partidulputeriiumanistesocial-liberal.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
93% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
7% |
|
2 |
0% |
7% |
|
3 |
0% |
7% |
|
4 |
0% |
7% |
|
5 |
0% |
7% |
|
6 |
0% |
7% |
|
7 |
0% |
7% |
|
8 |
0% |
7% |
|
9 |
0% |
7% |
|
10 |
0% |
7% |
|
11 |
0% |
7% |
|
12 |
0% |
7% |
|
13 |
0% |
7% |
|
14 |
0% |
7% |
|
15 |
0% |
7% |
|
16 |
0.2% |
7% |
|
17 |
3% |
7% |
|
18 |
2% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.8% |
1.5% |
|
20 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
PRO România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-seats-pmf-proromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România |
110 |
138 |
0% |
132–146 |
129–149 |
126–151 |
121–154 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
169 |
123 |
0% |
115–133 |
114–135 |
112–136 |
107–142 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
169 |
122 |
0% |
114–130 |
112–132 |
109–133 |
106–136 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
148 |
105 |
0% |
99–114 |
97–118 |
94–121 |
91–125 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS |
148 |
104 |
0% |
98–111 |
95–114 |
92–115 |
90–118 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
114 |
77 |
0% |
71–86 |
69–89 |
68–93 |
64–97 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
114 |
77 |
0% |
70–84 |
68–85 |
67–86 |
64–90 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
93 |
60 |
0% |
54–68 |
52–73 |
51–75 |
48–80 |
Partidul Național Liberal |
93 |
59 |
0% |
54–65 |
52–67 |
51–68 |
48–70 |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
55 |
45 |
0% |
41–54 |
39–60 |
38–63 |
36–66 |
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-psd–pro.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
100% |
|
113 |
0% |
100% |
|
114 |
0% |
100% |
|
115 |
0% |
100% |
|
116 |
0% |
100% |
|
117 |
0% |
100% |
|
118 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
119 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
121 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
122 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
123 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
124 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
125 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
127 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
128 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
129 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
130 |
1.0% |
94% |
|
131 |
2% |
93% |
|
132 |
3% |
91% |
|
133 |
3% |
87% |
|
134 |
9% |
84% |
|
135 |
3% |
75% |
|
136 |
4% |
71% |
|
137 |
5% |
67% |
|
138 |
22% |
62% |
Median |
139 |
3% |
40% |
|
140 |
5% |
37% |
|
141 |
4% |
32% |
|
142 |
4% |
28% |
|
143 |
6% |
24% |
|
144 |
2% |
18% |
|
145 |
3% |
15% |
|
146 |
3% |
13% |
|
147 |
2% |
10% |
|
148 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
149 |
2% |
7% |
|
150 |
2% |
5% |
|
151 |
2% |
3% |
|
152 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
155 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
156 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–udmr–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
107 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
108 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
109 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
110 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
111 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
112 |
2% |
98% |
|
113 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
114 |
2% |
95% |
|
115 |
3% |
93% |
|
116 |
3% |
89% |
|
117 |
1.0% |
86% |
|
118 |
6% |
85% |
|
119 |
4% |
79% |
|
120 |
5% |
75% |
|
121 |
3% |
70% |
|
122 |
14% |
67% |
Median |
123 |
12% |
52% |
|
124 |
4% |
41% |
|
125 |
7% |
37% |
|
126 |
4% |
29% |
|
127 |
2% |
26% |
|
128 |
2% |
24% |
|
129 |
1.5% |
22% |
|
130 |
7% |
20% |
|
131 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
132 |
2% |
12% |
|
133 |
4% |
10% |
|
134 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
135 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
136 |
2% |
4% |
|
137 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
138 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
141 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
142 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
143 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
146 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–udmr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
107 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
108 |
1.5% |
99.1% |
|
109 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
110 |
0.7% |
97% |
|
111 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
112 |
2% |
95% |
|
113 |
1.1% |
93% |
|
114 |
2% |
92% |
|
115 |
4% |
90% |
|
116 |
4% |
86% |
|
117 |
2% |
82% |
|
118 |
7% |
80% |
|
119 |
5% |
73% |
|
120 |
7% |
69% |
|
121 |
3% |
62% |
|
122 |
14% |
59% |
Median |
123 |
12% |
44% |
|
124 |
4% |
33% |
|
125 |
7% |
29% |
|
126 |
3% |
21% |
|
127 |
2% |
19% |
|
128 |
2% |
17% |
|
129 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
130 |
7% |
14% |
|
131 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
133 |
3% |
4% |
|
134 |
0.6% |
1.5% |
|
135 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
136 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
137 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
138 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
89 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
90 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
91 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
92 |
0.5% |
99.1% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
94 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
95 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
96 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
97 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
98 |
3% |
94% |
|
99 |
2% |
91% |
|
100 |
5% |
89% |
|
101 |
7% |
84% |
|
102 |
7% |
77% |
|
103 |
14% |
70% |
|
104 |
4% |
56% |
Median |
105 |
5% |
53% |
|
106 |
9% |
48% |
|
107 |
2% |
39% |
|
108 |
7% |
37% |
|
109 |
5% |
30% |
|
110 |
2% |
25% |
|
111 |
6% |
23% |
|
112 |
2% |
16% |
|
113 |
2% |
15% |
|
114 |
4% |
13% |
|
115 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
116 |
0.5% |
8% |
|
117 |
2% |
7% |
|
118 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
120 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
121 |
2% |
3% |
|
122 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
123 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
124 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
125 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
126 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
129 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
130 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
89 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
91 |
0.8% |
99.2% |
|
92 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
93 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
94 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
95 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
96 |
1.3% |
94% |
|
97 |
2% |
93% |
|
98 |
3% |
91% |
|
99 |
3% |
87% |
|
100 |
5% |
84% |
|
101 |
7% |
79% |
|
102 |
7% |
72% |
|
103 |
15% |
65% |
|
104 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
105 |
7% |
47% |
|
106 |
9% |
40% |
|
107 |
2% |
31% |
|
108 |
6% |
28% |
|
109 |
5% |
22% |
|
110 |
2% |
17% |
|
111 |
6% |
15% |
|
112 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
113 |
2% |
8% |
|
114 |
3% |
6% |
|
115 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
116 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
117 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
118 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
119 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
120 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
121 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
122 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
123 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
124 |
0% |
0% |
|
125 |
0% |
0% |
|
126 |
0% |
0% |
|
127 |
0% |
0% |
|
128 |
0% |
0% |
|
129 |
0% |
0% |
|
130 |
0% |
0% |
|
131 |
0% |
0% |
|
132 |
0% |
0% |
|
133 |
0% |
0% |
|
134 |
0% |
0% |
|
135 |
0% |
0% |
|
136 |
0% |
0% |
|
137 |
0% |
0% |
|
138 |
0% |
0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0% |
|
140 |
0% |
0% |
|
141 |
0% |
0% |
|
142 |
0% |
0% |
|
143 |
0% |
0% |
|
144 |
0% |
0% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–udmr–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
61 |
0% |
100% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
65 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
66 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
67 |
0.9% |
98.5% |
|
68 |
2% |
98% |
|
69 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
70 |
3% |
94% |
|
71 |
4% |
92% |
|
72 |
4% |
88% |
|
73 |
3% |
84% |
|
74 |
4% |
81% |
|
75 |
4% |
78% |
|
76 |
13% |
73% |
|
77 |
11% |
60% |
Median |
78 |
8% |
49% |
|
79 |
10% |
41% |
|
80 |
1.4% |
31% |
|
81 |
3% |
29% |
|
82 |
3% |
27% |
|
83 |
3% |
24% |
|
84 |
8% |
21% |
|
85 |
2% |
13% |
|
86 |
3% |
12% |
|
87 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
88 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
89 |
2% |
7% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
91 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
92 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
93 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
94 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
95 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
97 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
98 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
101 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
102 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–udmr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
60 |
0% |
100% |
|
61 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
63 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
65 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
66 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
67 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
68 |
3% |
97% |
|
69 |
2% |
94% |
|
70 |
3% |
91% |
|
71 |
4% |
89% |
|
72 |
4% |
84% |
|
73 |
5% |
80% |
|
74 |
4% |
75% |
|
75 |
5% |
71% |
|
76 |
14% |
67% |
|
77 |
12% |
53% |
Median |
78 |
8% |
41% |
|
79 |
10% |
33% |
|
80 |
2% |
23% |
|
81 |
3% |
21% |
|
82 |
3% |
18% |
|
83 |
3% |
16% |
|
84 |
8% |
13% |
|
85 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
86 |
3% |
4% |
|
87 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
88 |
0.4% |
1.2% |
|
89 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
90 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
93 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
98 |
0% |
0% |
|
99 |
0% |
0% |
|
100 |
0% |
0% |
|
101 |
0% |
0% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
104 |
0% |
0% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
51 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
52 |
3% |
97% |
|
53 |
2% |
95% |
|
54 |
4% |
93% |
|
55 |
4% |
89% |
|
56 |
5% |
85% |
|
57 |
5% |
80% |
|
58 |
18% |
75% |
|
59 |
4% |
57% |
Median |
60 |
8% |
53% |
|
61 |
9% |
45% |
|
62 |
6% |
36% |
|
63 |
3% |
30% |
|
64 |
3% |
27% |
|
65 |
7% |
24% |
|
66 |
0.9% |
16% |
|
67 |
3% |
15% |
|
68 |
3% |
13% |
|
69 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
70 |
0.7% |
9% |
|
71 |
2% |
8% |
|
72 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
74 |
2% |
5% |
|
75 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
76 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
77 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
80 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
48 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
98.9% |
|
50 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
51 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
52 |
3% |
96% |
|
53 |
3% |
94% |
|
54 |
5% |
91% |
|
55 |
4% |
85% |
|
56 |
5% |
81% |
|
57 |
6% |
75% |
|
58 |
19% |
70% |
|
59 |
5% |
50% |
Median |
60 |
8% |
46% |
|
61 |
9% |
37% |
|
62 |
7% |
28% |
|
63 |
3% |
22% |
|
64 |
3% |
18% |
|
65 |
7% |
15% |
|
66 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
67 |
3% |
7% |
|
68 |
3% |
4% |
|
69 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
77 |
0% |
0% |
|
78 |
0% |
0% |
|
79 |
0% |
0% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
81 |
0% |
0% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2021-10-26-Avangarde-coalitions-seats-pmf-a2020–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
36 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
37 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
38 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
39 |
2% |
97% |
|
40 |
3% |
95% |
|
41 |
7% |
92% |
|
42 |
7% |
85% |
|
43 |
4% |
77% |
|
44 |
10% |
74% |
|
45 |
16% |
63% |
Median |
46 |
9% |
47% |
|
47 |
6% |
39% |
|
48 |
6% |
33% |
|
49 |
5% |
26% |
|
50 |
2% |
21% |
|
51 |
6% |
19% |
|
52 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
53 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
54 |
0.9% |
10% |
|
55 |
0.5% |
9% |
Last Result |
56 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
57 |
2% |
9% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
7% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
6% |
|
60 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
63 |
3% |
4% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
65 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
66 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
70 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
71 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Avangarde
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–26 October 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 900
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.89%