Opinion Poll by CURS, 28 March–11 April 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 35.0% 33.9–36.2% 33.5–36.5% 33.3–36.8% 32.7–37.4%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 23.0% 22.0–24.1% 21.7–24.4% 21.5–24.6% 21.0–25.1%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 12.0% 11.2–12.8% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.3% 10.5–13.7%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.1% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.7%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.5–5.6% 4.4–5.8% 4.3–5.9% 4.0–6.2%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 5.0% 4.5–5.6% 4.4–5.8% 4.3–5.9% 4.0–6.2%
PRO România 4.1% 3.0% 2.6–3.5% 2.5–3.6% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–4.0%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 2.0% 1.7–2.4% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8%
Alianța pentru Patrie 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%
Forța Dreptei 0.0% 1.0% 0.8–1.3% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 125 118–130 117–131 116–131 113–133
Partidul Național Liberal 93 82 76–86 75–87 75–88 72–90
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 42 39–46 39–46 38–46 37–49
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 39 35–41 34–43 34–43 33–45
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 17 16–19 15–20 14–21 14–22
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0–18 0–19 0–20 0–21
PRO România 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Alianța pentru Patrie 0 0 0 0 0 0
Forța Dreptei 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100% Last Result
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 2% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 98%  
116 2% 98%  
117 3% 96%  
118 15% 93%  
119 2% 78%  
120 3% 76%  
121 9% 73%  
122 7% 64%  
123 3% 56%  
124 2% 53%  
125 3% 51% Median
126 4% 48%  
127 27% 45%  
128 5% 18%  
129 1.1% 13%  
130 5% 12%  
131 5% 7%  
132 1.5% 2%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 0.5% 99.0%  
75 8% 98%  
76 3% 91%  
77 2% 87%  
78 2% 85%  
79 5% 83%  
80 16% 78%  
81 7% 62%  
82 23% 55% Median
83 7% 31%  
84 9% 24%  
85 4% 15%  
86 3% 11%  
87 4% 8%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.7% 1.5%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 1.2% 99.5%  
38 2% 98%  
39 13% 96%  
40 6% 83%  
41 15% 77%  
42 14% 62% Median
43 7% 48%  
44 7% 41%  
45 6% 34%  
46 26% 28%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 1.0%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 5% 99.3%  
35 5% 95%  
36 5% 89%  
37 5% 84%  
38 5% 79%  
39 29% 74% Median
40 34% 44%  
41 4% 11%  
42 2% 7%  
43 3% 5%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 3% 99.8%  
15 3% 97%  
16 11% 94%  
17 47% 83% Median
18 16% 36%  
19 11% 20%  
20 6% 9%  
21 1.2% 3% Last Result
22 2% 2%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 43%  
2 0% 43%  
3 0% 43%  
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 0% 43%  
8 0% 43%  
9 0% 43%  
10 0% 43%  
11 0% 43%  
12 0% 43%  
13 0% 43%  
14 0% 43%  
15 0% 43%  
16 0% 43%  
17 17% 43%  
18 17% 26%  
19 7% 9%  
20 1.3% 3%  
21 1.1% 1.2%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Alianța pentru Patrie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Patrie page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Forța Dreptei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 145 0% 139–153 137–155 136–156 135–159
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 139 0% 131–144 130–145 128–146 126–149
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 126 0% 121–137 119–137 118–139 117–141
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 125 0% 118–130 117–131 116–131 113–133
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 121 0% 114–125 113–128 112–129 109–130
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 105 0% 99–116 99–117 98–119 96–121
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 99 0% 93–104 92–105 91–106 89–109
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 87 0% 82–98 81–100 80–101 78–103
Partidul Național Liberal 93 82 0% 76–86 75–87 75–88 72–90
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 41 0% 39–57 36–58 35–59 35–61

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.2% 99.9%  
135 0.2% 99.6%  
136 4% 99.4%  
137 0.8% 96%  
138 0.8% 95% Median
139 22% 94%  
140 3% 72%  
141 6% 68%  
142 3% 62%  
143 4% 59%  
144 4% 55%  
145 5% 51%  
146 3% 46%  
147 2% 43%  
148 3% 41%  
149 6% 38%  
150 3% 32%  
151 5% 29%  
152 1.2% 24%  
153 13% 23%  
154 2% 9%  
155 4% 7%  
156 1.5% 3%  
157 0.5% 1.3%  
158 0.3% 0.8%  
159 0.4% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
124 0.1% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.4% 99.9%  
127 0.5% 99.5%  
128 2% 98.9%  
129 2% 97%  
130 2% 95%  
131 6% 94%  
132 3% 88%  
133 5% 85%  
134 3% 79%  
135 2% 77%  
136 15% 74%  
137 4% 59%  
138 2% 55% Median
139 23% 52%  
140 4% 29%  
141 6% 25%  
142 3% 19%  
143 4% 16%  
144 4% 12%  
145 4% 8%  
146 2% 4%  
147 1.0% 2%  
148 0.5% 1.2%  
149 0.4% 0.7%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.6% 99.8%  
118 3% 99.1%  
119 1.5% 96%  
120 1.3% 94%  
121 3% 93% Median
122 23% 90%  
123 4% 67%  
124 5% 63%  
125 5% 58%  
126 5% 53%  
127 0.8% 49%  
128 3% 48%  
129 2% 45%  
130 3% 43%  
131 0.8% 40%  
132 8% 40%  
133 4% 32%  
134 3% 28%  
135 2% 24%  
136 12% 22%  
137 5% 10%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.3% 3%  
140 1.0% 2%  
141 0.5% 0.8%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100% Last Result
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.4% 99.8%  
114 2% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 98%  
116 2% 98%  
117 3% 96%  
118 15% 93%  
119 2% 78%  
120 3% 76%  
121 9% 73%  
122 7% 64%  
123 3% 56%  
124 2% 53%  
125 3% 51% Median
126 4% 48%  
127 27% 45%  
128 5% 18%  
129 1.1% 13%  
130 5% 12%  
131 5% 7%  
132 1.5% 2%  
133 0.1% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.5%  
135 0.1% 0.3%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.8% 99.9%  
110 0.3% 99.1%  
111 1.1% 98.8%  
112 1.4% 98%  
113 3% 96%  
114 6% 93%  
115 5% 88%  
116 3% 83%  
117 3% 80%  
118 6% 77%  
119 16% 71%  
120 4% 56%  
121 4% 52% Median
122 24% 48%  
123 5% 24%  
124 5% 20%  
125 5% 14%  
126 4% 10%  
127 0.6% 6%  
128 2% 5%  
129 1.2% 3%  
130 1.2% 2%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.2%  
133 0.1% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.8% 99.5%  
97 0.2% 98.7%  
98 2% 98.6%  
99 22% 97% Median
100 2% 75%  
101 13% 74%  
102 2% 61%  
103 3% 59%  
104 6% 56%  
105 3% 51%  
106 3% 48%  
107 1.0% 45%  
108 1.1% 44%  
109 1.1% 43%  
110 7% 42%  
111 2% 35%  
112 4% 33%  
113 2% 29%  
114 12% 26% Last Result
115 2% 14%  
116 3% 12%  
117 5% 9%  
118 1.3% 4%  
119 1.2% 3%  
120 0.8% 1.4%  
121 0.2% 0.6%  
122 0.2% 0.4%  
123 0.2% 0.2%  
124 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.6% 99.9%  
90 0.6% 99.3%  
91 2% 98.7%  
92 6% 97%  
93 3% 91%  
94 3% 88%  
95 4% 85%  
96 2% 81%  
97 12% 79%  
98 5% 67%  
99 25% 61% Median
100 5% 36%  
101 13% 32%  
102 2% 19%  
103 3% 17%  
104 6% 13%  
105 3% 7%  
106 3% 5%  
107 0.6% 2%  
108 0.4% 1.1%  
109 0.5% 0.7%  
110 0% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.7%  
79 1.3% 99.1%  
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 22% 93% Median
83 7% 71%  
84 7% 64%  
85 4% 57%  
86 2% 54%  
87 4% 51%  
88 3% 47%  
89 0.9% 45%  
90 0.9% 44%  
91 0.5% 43%  
92 1.3% 43%  
93 6% 41% Last Result
94 2% 35%  
95 3% 33%  
96 4% 30%  
97 12% 27%  
98 5% 14%  
99 4% 10%  
100 1.3% 6%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.0% 2%  
103 1.0% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 0.5% 99.0%  
75 8% 98%  
76 3% 91%  
77 2% 87%  
78 2% 85%  
79 5% 83%  
80 16% 78%  
81 7% 62%  
82 23% 55% Median
83 7% 31%  
84 9% 24%  
85 4% 15%  
86 3% 11%  
87 4% 8%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.7% 1.5%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 3% 99.8%  
36 2% 96%  
37 0.8% 95%  
38 2% 94%  
39 8% 92% Median
40 33% 84%  
41 3% 52%  
42 1.2% 49%  
43 3% 48%  
44 0.8% 45%  
45 0.6% 44%  
46 0.1% 44%  
47 0% 43%  
48 0% 43%  
49 0.1% 43%  
50 0.1% 43%  
51 1.1% 43%  
52 4% 42%  
53 2% 38%  
54 3% 36%  
55 3% 33% Last Result
56 13% 30%  
57 11% 17%  
58 3% 6%  
59 1.0% 3%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations