Opinion Poll by CURS, 8–22 September 2022

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 34.7% 32.8–36.6% 32.3–37.2% 31.8–37.7% 30.9–38.6%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.4% 18.6–25.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–18.0%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–7.0%
PRO România 4.1% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Partidul S.O.S. România 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 133 124–147 119–147 117–148 113–155
Partidul Național Liberal 93 84 76–93 74–95 72–98 69–101
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 57 51–65 49–67 47–68 45–71
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 0 0–33 0–34 0–35 0–38
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 19 15–23 15–24 14–25 12–27
PRO România 0 0 0 0–18 0–19 0–21
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0–19 0–20 0–21
Partidul S.O.S. România 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.8%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.4%  
115 0.3% 99.1%  
116 0.5% 98.8%  
117 0.8% 98%  
118 0.8% 97%  
119 2% 97%  
120 1.1% 95%  
121 0.7% 94%  
122 1.0% 93%  
123 2% 92%  
124 1.5% 90%  
125 2% 89%  
126 3% 87%  
127 6% 84%  
128 9% 78%  
129 4% 70%  
130 5% 66%  
131 6% 60%  
132 3% 54%  
133 2% 51% Median
134 3% 49%  
135 3% 45%  
136 1.0% 42%  
137 1.1% 41%  
138 2% 40%  
139 3% 38%  
140 1.5% 35%  
141 1.1% 33%  
142 3% 32%  
143 8% 29%  
144 5% 21%  
145 3% 16%  
146 3% 13%  
147 6% 10%  
148 2% 4%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.4% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.3%  
152 0.3% 1.0%  
153 0.1% 0.8%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.1% 0.5%  
156 0.2% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 98.9%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.3% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 4% 91%  
77 3% 87%  
78 5% 83%  
79 4% 79%  
80 6% 74%  
81 8% 69%  
82 6% 61%  
83 5% 55%  
84 6% 50% Median
85 6% 44%  
86 4% 38%  
87 4% 34%  
88 6% 30%  
89 3% 24%  
90 4% 21%  
91 5% 17%  
92 2% 13%  
93 1.2% 11% Last Result
94 3% 10%  
95 2% 6%  
96 1.1% 5%  
97 1.0% 4%  
98 0.8% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.1%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.2% 99.8%  
45 0.5% 99.6%  
46 0.7% 99.1%  
47 1.0% 98%  
48 1.3% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 3% 94%  
51 5% 90%  
52 4% 85%  
53 6% 81%  
54 5% 75%  
55 7% 69%  
56 8% 62%  
57 7% 54% Median
58 6% 47%  
59 7% 41%  
60 5% 34%  
61 6% 29%  
62 4% 23%  
63 4% 19%  
64 4% 15%  
65 3% 11%  
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.3% 4%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.4%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 54% 100% Median
1 0% 46%  
2 0% 46%  
3 0% 46%  
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 0% 46%  
8 0% 46%  
9 0% 46%  
10 0% 46%  
11 0% 46%  
12 0% 46%  
13 0% 46%  
14 0% 46%  
15 0% 46%  
16 0% 46%  
17 0% 46%  
18 0% 46%  
19 0% 46%  
20 0% 46%  
21 0% 46%  
22 0% 46%  
23 0% 46%  
24 0% 46%  
25 0% 46%  
26 0% 46%  
27 0% 46%  
28 0.6% 46%  
29 3% 45%  
30 10% 42%  
31 9% 32%  
32 8% 23%  
33 7% 14%  
34 4% 8%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.4% 1.0%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.4% 99.8%  
13 1.2% 99.4%  
14 3% 98%  
15 7% 95%  
16 9% 89%  
17 13% 79%  
18 15% 67%  
19 12% 52% Median
20 12% 40%  
21 7% 28% Last Result
22 9% 20%  
23 5% 11%  
24 3% 6%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.6% 0.9%  
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

PRO România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 0% 6%  
8 0% 6%  
9 0% 6%  
10 0% 6%  
11 0% 6%  
12 0% 6%  
13 0% 6%  
14 0% 6%  
15 0% 6%  
16 0% 6%  
17 0.2% 6%  
18 2% 6%  
19 2% 4%  
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.6% 1.0%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0% 8%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 0% 8%  
8 0% 8%  
9 0% 8%  
10 0% 8%  
11 0% 8%  
12 0% 8%  
13 0% 8%  
14 0% 8%  
15 0% 8%  
16 0% 8%  
17 0.2% 8%  
18 2% 8%  
19 3% 6%  
20 2% 3%  
21 1.0% 1.4%  
22 0.2% 0.4%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Partidul S.O.S. România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România 110 135 0.1% 125–147 122–149 119–153 114–158
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 117 0% 103–132 100–135 98–138 94–142
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 103 0% 94–113 91–117 89–119 85–121
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 96 0% 83–114 81–117 79–119 76–123
Partidul Național Liberal 93 84 0% 76–93 74–95 72–98 69–101

Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100% Last Result
111 0.1% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.2% 99.8%  
114 0.2% 99.6%  
115 0.3% 99.4%  
116 0.4% 99.1%  
117 0.6% 98.7%  
118 0.4% 98%  
119 1.1% 98%  
120 1.0% 97%  
121 0.6% 96%  
122 0.7% 95%  
123 2% 94%  
124 1.4% 93%  
125 2% 91%  
126 3% 90%  
127 6% 87%  
128 8% 81%  
129 4% 73%  
130 5% 69%  
131 6% 64%  
132 3% 58%  
133 2% 55% Median
134 3% 53%  
135 3% 50%  
136 1.2% 47%  
137 2% 46%  
138 2% 44%  
139 3% 42%  
140 2% 39%  
141 1.4% 37%  
142 3% 36%  
143 8% 33%  
144 5% 25%  
145 3% 19%  
146 3% 16%  
147 6% 13%  
148 2% 7%  
149 0.5% 5%  
150 0.6% 5%  
151 0.5% 4%  
152 0.4% 3%  
153 1.1% 3%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.2% 1.4%  
156 0.3% 1.2%  
157 0.3% 0.8%  
158 0.1% 0.5%  
159 0.1% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0% 0.3%  
162 0% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1% Majority
166 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.3% 99.5%  
95 0.3% 99.2%  
96 0.9% 98.9%  
97 0.5% 98%  
98 1.1% 98%  
99 0.5% 96%  
100 2% 96%  
101 1.5% 94%  
102 2% 93%  
103 2% 91% Median
104 3% 89%  
105 5% 86%  
106 5% 81%  
107 4% 76%  
108 5% 72%  
109 3% 67%  
110 2% 64%  
111 4% 62%  
112 1.5% 58%  
113 1.1% 56%  
114 2% 55%  
115 2% 54%  
116 2% 52%  
117 2% 50%  
118 1.3% 48%  
119 2% 47%  
120 1.2% 45%  
121 2% 44%  
122 1.3% 42%  
123 1.1% 41%  
124 2% 40%  
125 2% 38%  
126 2% 36%  
127 7% 34%  
128 2% 27%  
129 6% 25%  
130 4% 19%  
131 4% 15%  
132 3% 11%  
133 2% 9%  
134 0.9% 7%  
135 1.4% 6%  
136 0.9% 5%  
137 0.6% 4%  
138 1.1% 3%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.5% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.0%  
142 0.3% 0.5%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6%  
86 0.3% 99.3%  
87 0.5% 99.0%  
88 1.0% 98%  
89 0.9% 98%  
90 0.7% 97%  
91 1.4% 96%  
92 1.4% 94%  
93 2% 93%  
94 4% 91%  
95 2% 87%  
96 7% 85%  
97 5% 78%  
98 6% 73%  
99 4% 66%  
100 6% 62%  
101 2% 56%  
102 4% 54%  
103 2% 50% Median
104 4% 48%  
105 6% 44%  
106 6% 38%  
107 5% 32%  
108 5% 27%  
109 4% 22%  
110 2% 18%  
111 4% 17%  
112 2% 12%  
113 1.1% 11%  
114 2% 10% Last Result
115 2% 8%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.3% 5%  
118 1.0% 4%  
119 1.3% 3%  
120 0.4% 2%  
121 0.7% 1.2%  
122 0.2% 0.5%  
123 0.1% 0.3%  
124 0.1% 0.2%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.6% 99.1%  
78 0.4% 98.5%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 2% 93%  
83 2% 91%  
84 4% 89% Median
85 5% 85%  
86 3% 80%  
87 4% 77%  
88 5% 73%  
89 3% 68%  
90 3% 66%  
91 4% 62%  
92 2% 58%  
93 1.1% 56%  
94 3% 55%  
95 2% 52%  
96 1.2% 50%  
97 1.1% 49%  
98 1.1% 48%  
99 0.9% 47%  
100 0.7% 46%  
101 0.5% 45%  
102 1.0% 45%  
103 1.1% 44%  
104 0.9% 43%  
105 1.2% 42%  
106 2% 41%  
107 2% 38%  
108 3% 36%  
109 4% 33%  
110 2% 29%  
111 5% 27%  
112 5% 22%  
113 5% 17%  
114 3% 12%  
115 2% 10%  
116 1.2% 7%  
117 1.3% 6%  
118 1.5% 5%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 1.0% 2%  
121 0.2% 1.4%  
122 0.4% 1.3%  
123 0.4% 0.8%  
124 0.1% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 98.9%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.3% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 4% 91%  
77 3% 87%  
78 5% 83%  
79 4% 79%  
80 6% 74%  
81 8% 69%  
82 6% 61%  
83 5% 55%  
84 6% 50% Median
85 6% 44%  
86 4% 38%  
87 4% 34%  
88 6% 30%  
89 3% 24%  
90 4% 21%  
91 5% 17%  
92 2% 13%  
93 1.2% 11% Last Result
94 3% 10%  
95 2% 6%  
96 1.1% 5%  
97 1.0% 4%  
98 0.8% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.1%  
101 0.2% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations