Opinion Poll by CURS, 19–27 May 2023

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 28.9% 31.0% 29.2–32.8% 28.7–33.3% 28.3–33.8% 27.4–34.7%
Partidul Național Liberal 25.2% 20.0% 18.5–21.6% 18.0–22.1% 17.7–22.5% 17.0–23.3%
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 9.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.2–20.1%
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 15.4% 11.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.3–13.0% 8.7–13.7%
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 5.7% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 4.8% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.7–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Social Democrat 110 111 103–120 102–122 99–123 96–127
Partidul Național Liberal 93 72 66–78 63–80 62–81 60–84
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor 33 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–73
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 55 40 35–44 34–45 33–47 31–50
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 21 18 15–21 14–22 13–23 12–25
Partidul Mișcarea Populară 0 0 0–20 0–21 0–22 0–24
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) 0 0 0 0–17 0–18 0–20

Partidul Social Democrat

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.4% 99.7%  
97 0.4% 99.3%  
98 0.2% 98.9%  
99 1.3% 98.7%  
100 1.2% 97%  
101 0.9% 96%  
102 4% 95%  
103 2% 92%  
104 2% 89%  
105 7% 88%  
106 3% 81%  
107 3% 78%  
108 10% 75%  
109 4% 65%  
110 4% 61% Last Result
111 11% 57% Median
112 4% 46%  
113 5% 42%  
114 8% 37%  
115 2% 29%  
116 3% 26%  
117 7% 23%  
118 3% 15%  
119 3% 13%  
120 2% 10%  
121 3% 8%  
122 0.9% 5%  
123 2% 4%  
124 1.0% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.4%  
126 0.4% 1.1%  
127 0.3% 0.6%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.5%  
61 0.4% 99.0%  
62 1.4% 98.7%  
63 2% 97%  
64 1.4% 95%  
65 3% 93%  
66 6% 91%  
67 5% 85%  
68 4% 80%  
69 10% 75%  
70 7% 66%  
71 4% 58%  
72 7% 54% Median
73 13% 47%  
74 7% 34%  
75 4% 27%  
76 7% 23%  
77 6% 17%  
78 2% 11%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100% Last Result
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.7%  
51 0.7% 99.3%  
52 1.2% 98.6%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 6% 83%  
58 6% 77%  
59 9% 71%  
60 7% 63%  
61 10% 55% Median
62 9% 45%  
63 7% 37%  
64 7% 30%  
65 7% 23%  
66 5% 16%  
67 3% 11%  
68 3% 8%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.3% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.6% 99.6%  
32 1.4% 98.9%  
33 2% 98%  
34 3% 95%  
35 6% 92%  
36 7% 86%  
37 12% 80%  
38 8% 68%  
39 9% 60%  
40 14% 51% Median
41 9% 36%  
42 8% 28%  
43 5% 20%  
44 4% 14%  
45 5% 10%  
46 2% 5%  
47 1.0% 3%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.5%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.8%  
13 2% 98.9%  
14 6% 97%  
15 8% 91%  
16 12% 83%  
17 17% 71%  
18 15% 53% Median
19 15% 38%  
20 9% 23%  
21 7% 14% Last Result
22 3% 7%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.0% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Partidul Mișcarea Populară

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 50%  
2 0% 50%  
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 0% 50%  
7 0% 50%  
8 0% 50%  
9 0% 50%  
10 0% 50%  
11 0% 50%  
12 0% 50%  
13 0% 50%  
14 0% 50%  
15 0% 50%  
16 0% 50%  
17 4% 50%  
18 16% 46%  
19 11% 30%  
20 9% 18%  
21 5% 10%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.2% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.7%  
25 0.2% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 0% 5%  
8 0% 5%  
9 0% 5%  
10 0% 5%  
11 0% 5%  
12 0% 5%  
13 0% 5%  
14 0% 5%  
15 0% 5%  
16 0.2% 5%  
17 1.5% 5%  
18 2% 4%  
19 1.1% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 138 0% 129–148 126–151 124–153 120–156
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 169 129 0% 120–137 118–140 117–142 113–146
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 148 121 0% 110–131 108–134 106–135 102–138
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS 148 112 0% 104–119 101–121 100–123 96–126
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 99 0% 88–110 86–112 84–114 81–117
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România 114 90 0% 82–97 81–99 79–101 76–104
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 93 81 0% 70–93 68–95 66–96 63–99
Partidul Național Liberal 93 72 0% 66–78 63–80 62–81 60–84
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară 55 49 0% 37–60 36–62 35–64 33–66

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.7%  
120 0.2% 99.5%  
121 0.5% 99.3%  
122 0.3% 98.8%  
123 0.8% 98%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 1.0% 97%  
126 1.4% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 2% 93%  
129 3% 91%  
130 3% 88% Median
131 3% 85%  
132 5% 82%  
133 4% 77%  
134 5% 73%  
135 4% 68%  
136 5% 63%  
137 5% 58%  
138 3% 53%  
139 4% 50%  
140 4% 46%  
141 4% 41%  
142 4% 37%  
143 3% 33%  
144 4% 30%  
145 5% 26%  
146 3% 21%  
147 4% 18%  
148 4% 14%  
149 2% 10%  
150 2% 8%  
151 2% 6%  
152 1.0% 4%  
153 1.0% 3%  
154 0.6% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.0%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.2% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.3% 99.3%  
115 0.7% 99.0%  
116 0.7% 98%  
117 1.3% 98%  
118 2% 96%  
119 2% 94%  
120 3% 92%  
121 5% 90%  
122 3% 85%  
123 4% 82%  
124 5% 78%  
125 3% 73%  
126 5% 70%  
127 6% 65%  
128 3% 59%  
129 7% 56%  
130 6% 48% Median
131 5% 42%  
132 7% 38%  
133 5% 31%  
134 5% 26%  
135 4% 21%  
136 4% 17%  
137 3% 13%  
138 2% 9%  
139 2% 7%  
140 2% 6%  
141 1.4% 4%  
142 0.8% 3%  
143 0.6% 2%  
144 0.5% 1.3%  
145 0.2% 0.8%  
146 0.2% 0.5%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0% Majority
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.1% 99.7%  
102 0.4% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.2%  
104 0.2% 98.9%  
105 1.0% 98.7%  
106 1.2% 98%  
107 0.8% 97%  
108 1.0% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 4% 92%  
111 2% 89%  
112 1.1% 87% Median
113 6% 86%  
114 7% 80%  
115 4% 73%  
116 2% 69%  
117 3% 67%  
118 7% 64%  
119 4% 58%  
120 2% 54%  
121 3% 51%  
122 4% 48%  
123 5% 44%  
124 3% 39%  
125 4% 36%  
126 6% 32%  
127 3% 26%  
128 3% 23%  
129 4% 21%  
130 4% 17%  
131 5% 13%  
132 2% 8%  
133 0.9% 6%  
134 2% 5%  
135 1.1% 3%  
136 0.9% 2%  
137 0.6% 1.4%  
138 0.3% 0.8%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 99.9%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 0.5% 99.3%  
98 0.7% 98.8%  
99 0.4% 98%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 4% 97%  
102 1.3% 93%  
103 0.7% 92%  
104 5% 91%  
105 7% 86%  
106 3% 79%  
107 2% 75%  
108 5% 74%  
109 11% 69%  
110 5% 58%  
111 2% 53%  
112 6% 51% Median
113 10% 45%  
114 7% 35%  
115 4% 28%  
116 3% 24%  
117 4% 21%  
118 6% 17%  
119 2% 11%  
120 1.3% 8%  
121 2% 7%  
122 2% 5%  
123 2% 3%  
124 0.2% 2%  
125 0.4% 1.5%  
126 0.7% 1.1%  
127 0.2% 0.5%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.2%  
130 0.1% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.3% 99.6%  
82 0.3% 99.2%  
83 1.0% 98.9%  
84 0.9% 98%  
85 2% 97%  
86 0.9% 96%  
87 3% 95%  
88 2% 92%  
89 3% 90%  
90 3% 86% Median
91 3% 83%  
92 6% 80%  
93 4% 74%  
94 3% 70%  
95 4% 66%  
96 4% 62%  
97 4% 58%  
98 2% 54%  
99 3% 52%  
100 3% 49%  
101 3% 45%  
102 3% 42%  
103 3% 39%  
104 5% 37%  
105 4% 31%  
106 2% 27%  
107 5% 24%  
108 5% 20%  
109 4% 15%  
110 2% 11%  
111 3% 9%  
112 2% 6%  
113 1.2% 4%  
114 0.9% 3% Last Result
115 0.7% 2%  
116 0.6% 1.2%  
117 0.3% 0.6%  
118 0.1% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.4%  
78 0.8% 98.9%  
79 1.2% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 4% 93%  
83 3% 89%  
84 5% 86%  
85 5% 81%  
86 5% 75%  
87 6% 70%  
88 5% 64%  
89 7% 59%  
90 8% 52% Median
91 6% 44%  
92 9% 38%  
93 5% 29%  
94 5% 24%  
95 5% 19%  
96 4% 14%  
97 4% 10%  
98 1.4% 7%  
99 2% 5%  
100 0.7% 3%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 0.6% 2%  
103 0.3% 1.1%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  
110 0% 0%  
111 0% 0%  
112 0% 0%  
113 0% 0%  
114 0% 0% Last Result

Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 0.5% 99.1%  
66 1.2% 98.5%  
67 1.4% 97%  
68 1.3% 96%  
69 3% 95%  
70 3% 91%  
71 1.5% 88%  
72 2% 86% Median
73 9% 85%  
74 6% 76%  
75 1.4% 70%  
76 4% 68%  
77 6% 64%  
78 2% 58%  
79 2% 57%  
80 3% 55%  
81 3% 52%  
82 2% 49%  
83 2% 47%  
84 3% 45%  
85 3% 42%  
86 4% 39%  
87 3% 34%  
88 3% 31%  
89 5% 27%  
90 5% 22%  
91 4% 17%  
92 2% 12%  
93 2% 10% Last Result
94 2% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.7% 1.5%  
99 0.4% 0.8%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Partidul Național Liberal

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.5%  
61 0.4% 99.0%  
62 1.4% 98.7%  
63 2% 97%  
64 1.4% 95%  
65 3% 93%  
66 6% 91%  
67 5% 85%  
68 4% 80%  
69 10% 75%  
70 7% 66%  
71 4% 58%  
72 7% 54% Median
73 13% 47%  
74 7% 34%  
75 4% 27%  
76 7% 23%  
77 6% 17%  
78 2% 11%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.5%  
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0% Last Result

Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 0.5% 99.6%  
34 0.9% 99.1%  
35 1.5% 98%  
36 2% 97%  
37 5% 95%  
38 3% 90%  
39 4% 86%  
40 7% 82% Median
41 5% 75%  
42 5% 70%  
43 3% 64%  
44 3% 61%  
45 4% 58%  
46 2% 54%  
47 0.9% 52%  
48 0.8% 51%  
49 0.7% 50%  
50 1.0% 50%  
51 1.2% 49%  
52 1.5% 47%  
53 3% 46%  
54 3% 43%  
55 6% 40% Last Result
56 4% 34%  
57 5% 30%  
58 7% 25%  
59 4% 18%  
60 4% 14%  
61 3% 10%  
62 3% 7%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.6% 1.4%  
66 0.4% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations