Opinion Poll by ARA Public Opinion, 16–28 December 2023
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Social Democrat |
28.9% |
31.5% |
29.6–33.5% |
29.1–34.0% |
28.7–34.5% |
27.8–35.5% |
Partidul Național Liberal |
25.2% |
16.6% |
15.2–18.3% |
14.8–18.7% |
14.4–19.1% |
13.7–19.9% |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS |
15.4% |
15.0% |
13.6–16.6% |
13.2–17.0% |
12.9–17.4% |
12.2–18.2% |
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor |
9.1% |
9.9% |
8.7–11.2% |
8.4–11.6% |
8.1–11.9% |
7.6–12.6% |
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
5.7% |
5.1% |
4.3–6.2% |
4.1–6.4% |
3.9–6.7% |
3.6–7.2% |
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) |
0.0% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.2–5.3% |
3.0–5.5% |
2.7–6.0% |
Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
4.8% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.5% |
2.7–4.7% |
2.6–5.0% |
2.3–5.4% |
Forța Dreptei |
0.0% |
2.9% |
2.3–3.7% |
2.1–3.9% |
2.0–4.1% |
1.8–4.6% |
Partidul S.O.S. România |
0.0% |
2.5% |
1.9–3.2% |
1.8–3.4% |
1.7–3.6% |
1.4–4.1% |
PRO România |
4.1% |
1.0% |
0.7–1.6% |
0.6–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Partidul Social Democrat
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Social Democrat page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-partidulsocialdemocrat.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
104 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
105 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
108 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
110 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
111 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
112 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
113 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
114 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
115 |
3% |
95% |
|
116 |
6% |
92% |
|
117 |
6% |
86% |
|
118 |
2% |
80% |
|
119 |
6% |
77% |
|
120 |
4% |
71% |
|
121 |
3% |
67% |
|
122 |
7% |
64% |
|
123 |
4% |
58% |
|
124 |
2% |
54% |
|
125 |
8% |
52% |
Median |
126 |
6% |
44% |
|
127 |
6% |
39% |
|
128 |
5% |
32% |
|
129 |
1.2% |
28% |
|
130 |
2% |
27% |
|
131 |
6% |
24% |
|
132 |
2% |
18% |
|
133 |
3% |
16% |
|
134 |
7% |
13% |
|
135 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
136 |
3% |
5% |
|
137 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
138 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Național Liberal page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-partidulnaționalliberal.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
56 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
57 |
4% |
97% |
|
58 |
2% |
94% |
|
59 |
5% |
92% |
|
60 |
2% |
87% |
|
61 |
6% |
85% |
|
62 |
5% |
78% |
|
63 |
6% |
74% |
|
64 |
11% |
68% |
|
65 |
5% |
56% |
|
66 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
67 |
11% |
45% |
|
68 |
10% |
34% |
|
69 |
6% |
24% |
|
70 |
4% |
18% |
|
71 |
2% |
14% |
|
72 |
3% |
12% |
|
73 |
3% |
8% |
|
74 |
2% |
6% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
76 |
2% |
3% |
|
77 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
79 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-alianța2020usr-plus.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
1.3% |
98.8% |
|
51 |
2% |
98% |
|
52 |
2% |
95% |
|
53 |
5% |
93% |
|
54 |
4% |
88% |
|
55 |
2% |
85% |
Last Result |
56 |
12% |
83% |
|
57 |
14% |
72% |
|
58 |
3% |
57% |
|
59 |
8% |
54% |
Median |
60 |
14% |
46% |
|
61 |
4% |
32% |
|
62 |
3% |
28% |
|
63 |
9% |
25% |
|
64 |
6% |
17% |
|
65 |
2% |
11% |
|
66 |
3% |
9% |
|
67 |
0.9% |
6% |
|
68 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
69 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
70 |
3% |
4% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
74 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
76 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-alianțapentruunirearomânilor.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
30 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
31 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
32 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
33 |
2% |
96% |
Last Result |
34 |
7% |
94% |
|
35 |
7% |
87% |
|
36 |
11% |
80% |
|
37 |
5% |
69% |
|
38 |
11% |
64% |
|
39 |
7% |
53% |
Median |
40 |
11% |
45% |
|
41 |
8% |
34% |
|
42 |
6% |
26% |
|
43 |
5% |
20% |
|
44 |
5% |
15% |
|
45 |
4% |
10% |
|
46 |
3% |
6% |
|
47 |
2% |
3% |
|
48 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-uniuneademocratămaghiarădinromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
15 |
4% |
98% |
|
16 |
4% |
94% |
|
17 |
8% |
90% |
|
18 |
8% |
82% |
|
19 |
16% |
74% |
|
20 |
12% |
58% |
Median |
21 |
15% |
46% |
Last Result |
22 |
10% |
31% |
|
23 |
6% |
21% |
|
24 |
7% |
15% |
|
25 |
1.3% |
8% |
|
26 |
2% |
7% |
|
27 |
2% |
4% |
|
28 |
2% |
3% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Puterii Umaniste (social-liberal) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-partidulputeriiumanistesocial-liberal.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
84% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
16% |
|
2 |
0% |
16% |
|
3 |
0% |
16% |
|
4 |
0% |
16% |
|
5 |
0% |
16% |
|
6 |
0% |
16% |
|
7 |
0% |
16% |
|
8 |
0% |
16% |
|
9 |
0% |
16% |
|
10 |
0% |
16% |
|
11 |
0% |
16% |
|
12 |
0% |
16% |
|
13 |
0% |
16% |
|
14 |
0% |
16% |
|
15 |
0% |
16% |
|
16 |
0% |
16% |
|
17 |
0% |
16% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
19 |
6% |
16% |
|
20 |
5% |
10% |
|
21 |
4% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Mișcarea Populară
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul Mișcarea Populară page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-partidulmișcareapopulară.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
98% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
2% |
|
2 |
0% |
2% |
|
3 |
0% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
2% |
|
5 |
0% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
2% |
|
7 |
0% |
2% |
|
8 |
0% |
2% |
|
9 |
0% |
2% |
|
10 |
0% |
2% |
|
11 |
0% |
2% |
|
12 |
0% |
2% |
|
13 |
0% |
2% |
|
14 |
0% |
2% |
|
15 |
0% |
2% |
|
16 |
0% |
2% |
|
17 |
0% |
2% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
23 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Forța Dreptei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forța Dreptei page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-forțadreptei.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
14 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
17 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul S.O.S. România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partidul S.O.S. România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-partidulsosromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
PRO România
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PRO România page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-seats-pmf-proromânia.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
169 |
145 |
0.2% |
136–156 |
133–157 |
131–158 |
130–162 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
169 |
145 |
0.1% |
135–155 |
133–157 |
131–158 |
129–161 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
148 |
125 |
0% |
116–134 |
115–137 |
113–138 |
109–142 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS |
148 |
124 |
0% |
116–133 |
114–137 |
112–138 |
108–141 |
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România |
110 |
125 |
0% |
116–134 |
115–135 |
112–136 |
108–141 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
114 |
86 |
0% |
79–94 |
76–97 |
73–99 |
72–104 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România |
114 |
86 |
0% |
79–94 |
76–96 |
73–98 |
72–100 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
93 |
66 |
0% |
59–73 |
57–76 |
57–78 |
54–85 |
Partidul Național Liberal |
93 |
66 |
0% |
59–72 |
57–74 |
56–76 |
53–79 |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară |
55 |
59 |
0% |
53–66 |
52–70 |
51–70 |
48–79 |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–udmr–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
123 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
125 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
126 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
128 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
129 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
130 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
131 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
132 |
1.1% |
97% |
|
133 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
134 |
1.5% |
95% |
|
135 |
3% |
93% |
|
136 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
137 |
1.3% |
89% |
|
138 |
3% |
88% |
|
139 |
2% |
85% |
|
140 |
8% |
83% |
|
141 |
2% |
75% |
|
142 |
10% |
73% |
|
143 |
2% |
63% |
|
144 |
5% |
61% |
|
145 |
11% |
56% |
Median |
146 |
3% |
44% |
|
147 |
3% |
41% |
|
148 |
7% |
39% |
|
149 |
5% |
31% |
|
150 |
5% |
26% |
|
151 |
3% |
21% |
|
152 |
3% |
19% |
|
153 |
3% |
16% |
|
154 |
0.4% |
13% |
|
155 |
3% |
13% |
|
156 |
2% |
10% |
|
157 |
3% |
8% |
|
158 |
3% |
5% |
|
159 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
160 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
161 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
162 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
165 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
166 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
167 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–udmr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
123 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
124 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
125 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
126 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
127 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
130 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
131 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
132 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
133 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
134 |
2% |
94% |
|
135 |
3% |
93% |
|
136 |
1.5% |
90% |
|
137 |
2% |
88% |
|
138 |
3% |
87% |
|
139 |
2% |
83% |
|
140 |
8% |
81% |
|
141 |
2% |
73% |
|
142 |
10% |
71% |
|
143 |
2% |
61% |
|
144 |
5% |
58% |
|
145 |
11% |
53% |
Median |
146 |
3% |
42% |
|
147 |
2% |
39% |
|
148 |
7% |
37% |
|
149 |
5% |
29% |
|
150 |
5% |
25% |
|
151 |
3% |
20% |
|
152 |
3% |
17% |
|
153 |
3% |
14% |
|
154 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
155 |
2% |
11% |
|
156 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
157 |
3% |
7% |
|
158 |
2% |
4% |
|
159 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
161 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
163 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
166 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
107 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
109 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
110 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
111 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
112 |
0.9% |
98.5% |
|
113 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
114 |
1.5% |
97% |
|
115 |
2% |
95% |
|
116 |
4% |
93% |
|
117 |
1.0% |
89% |
|
118 |
3% |
88% |
|
119 |
3% |
85% |
|
120 |
6% |
82% |
|
121 |
4% |
75% |
|
122 |
6% |
72% |
|
123 |
6% |
66% |
|
124 |
10% |
60% |
|
125 |
4% |
50% |
Median |
126 |
9% |
46% |
|
127 |
7% |
38% |
|
128 |
3% |
31% |
|
129 |
5% |
27% |
|
130 |
4% |
22% |
|
131 |
1.2% |
18% |
|
132 |
4% |
17% |
|
133 |
2% |
13% |
|
134 |
2% |
11% |
|
135 |
2% |
9% |
|
136 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
137 |
2% |
7% |
|
138 |
2% |
5% |
|
139 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
141 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
146 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
149 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal – Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–a2020.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
108 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
110 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
111 |
0.8% |
99.1% |
|
112 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
113 |
1.2% |
97% |
|
114 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
115 |
2% |
95% |
|
116 |
4% |
92% |
|
117 |
1.1% |
88% |
|
118 |
3% |
87% |
|
119 |
3% |
84% |
|
120 |
7% |
81% |
|
121 |
4% |
74% |
|
122 |
6% |
70% |
|
123 |
6% |
64% |
|
124 |
10% |
58% |
|
125 |
4% |
48% |
Median |
126 |
9% |
44% |
|
127 |
7% |
36% |
|
128 |
3% |
29% |
|
129 |
5% |
25% |
|
130 |
4% |
20% |
|
131 |
1.1% |
16% |
|
132 |
4% |
15% |
|
133 |
2% |
11% |
|
134 |
2% |
9% |
|
135 |
1.5% |
7% |
|
136 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
137 |
2% |
5% |
|
138 |
2% |
3% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
141 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
146 |
0% |
0% |
|
147 |
0% |
0% |
|
148 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Social Democrat – PRO România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-psd–pro.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
104 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
105 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
108 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
110 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
Last Result |
111 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
112 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
113 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
114 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
115 |
3% |
95% |
|
116 |
6% |
92% |
|
117 |
6% |
86% |
|
118 |
2% |
80% |
|
119 |
6% |
77% |
|
120 |
4% |
71% |
|
121 |
3% |
67% |
|
122 |
7% |
64% |
|
123 |
4% |
58% |
|
124 |
2% |
54% |
|
125 |
8% |
52% |
Median |
126 |
6% |
44% |
|
127 |
6% |
39% |
|
128 |
5% |
32% |
|
129 |
1.2% |
28% |
|
130 |
2% |
27% |
|
131 |
6% |
24% |
|
132 |
2% |
18% |
|
133 |
3% |
16% |
|
134 |
7% |
13% |
|
135 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
136 |
3% |
5% |
|
137 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
138 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
145 |
0% |
0% |
|
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–udmr–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
74 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
75 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
76 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
77 |
2% |
95% |
|
78 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
79 |
4% |
91% |
|
80 |
1.4% |
87% |
|
81 |
6% |
86% |
|
82 |
5% |
80% |
|
83 |
4% |
75% |
|
84 |
7% |
71% |
|
85 |
10% |
64% |
|
86 |
10% |
54% |
Median |
87 |
4% |
44% |
|
88 |
11% |
40% |
|
89 |
3% |
29% |
|
90 |
6% |
26% |
|
91 |
4% |
20% |
|
92 |
2% |
16% |
|
93 |
2% |
14% |
|
94 |
3% |
12% |
|
95 |
1.4% |
9% |
|
96 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
97 |
1.4% |
6% |
|
98 |
2% |
5% |
|
99 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
100 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
101 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
102 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
108 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
109 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
110 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
111 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Uniunea Democrată Maghiară din România
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–udmr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
74 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
75 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
76 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
77 |
3% |
94% |
|
78 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
79 |
5% |
91% |
|
80 |
2% |
86% |
|
81 |
6% |
85% |
|
82 |
5% |
79% |
|
83 |
4% |
74% |
|
84 |
7% |
69% |
|
85 |
10% |
62% |
|
86 |
10% |
52% |
Median |
87 |
4% |
42% |
|
88 |
11% |
38% |
|
89 |
3% |
27% |
|
90 |
6% |
24% |
|
91 |
4% |
18% |
|
92 |
3% |
14% |
|
93 |
2% |
12% |
|
94 |
3% |
10% |
|
95 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
96 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
97 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
98 |
2% |
3% |
|
99 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
100 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
104 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
105 |
0% |
0% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
107 |
0% |
0% |
|
108 |
0% |
0% |
|
109 |
0% |
0% |
|
110 |
0% |
0% |
|
111 |
0% |
0% |
|
112 |
0% |
0% |
|
113 |
0% |
0% |
|
114 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
57 |
3% |
98% |
|
58 |
2% |
94% |
|
59 |
5% |
93% |
|
60 |
2% |
87% |
|
61 |
6% |
85% |
|
62 |
4% |
79% |
|
63 |
6% |
75% |
|
64 |
11% |
69% |
|
65 |
5% |
58% |
|
66 |
6% |
53% |
Median |
67 |
11% |
47% |
|
68 |
10% |
36% |
|
69 |
6% |
26% |
|
70 |
4% |
20% |
|
71 |
2% |
15% |
|
72 |
3% |
14% |
|
73 |
3% |
11% |
|
74 |
2% |
8% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
76 |
2% |
5% |
|
77 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
79 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
81 |
0.4% |
1.4% |
|
82 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
83 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
84 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
86 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
88 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
89 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
90 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
91 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Partidul Național Liberal
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-pnl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
52 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
55 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
56 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
57 |
4% |
97% |
|
58 |
2% |
94% |
|
59 |
5% |
92% |
|
60 |
2% |
87% |
|
61 |
6% |
85% |
|
62 |
5% |
78% |
|
63 |
6% |
74% |
|
64 |
11% |
68% |
|
65 |
5% |
56% |
|
66 |
6% |
51% |
Median |
67 |
11% |
45% |
|
68 |
10% |
34% |
|
69 |
6% |
24% |
|
70 |
4% |
18% |
|
71 |
2% |
14% |
|
72 |
3% |
12% |
|
73 |
3% |
8% |
|
74 |
2% |
6% |
|
75 |
0.7% |
4% |
|
76 |
2% |
3% |
|
77 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
79 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
80 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
83 |
0% |
0% |
|
84 |
0% |
0% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
87 |
0% |
0% |
|
88 |
0% |
0% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
90 |
0% |
0% |
|
91 |
0% |
0% |
|
92 |
0% |
0% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Alianța 2020 USR-PLUS – Partidul Mișcarea Populară
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2023-12-28-ARAPublicOpinion-coalitions-seats-pmf-a2020–pmp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
49 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
50 |
1.1% |
99.1% |
|
51 |
2% |
98% |
|
52 |
2% |
96% |
|
53 |
5% |
94% |
|
54 |
4% |
89% |
|
55 |
1.5% |
86% |
Last Result |
56 |
12% |
84% |
|
57 |
14% |
73% |
|
58 |
3% |
58% |
|
59 |
7% |
55% |
Median |
60 |
13% |
47% |
|
61 |
4% |
34% |
|
62 |
3% |
30% |
|
63 |
9% |
27% |
|
64 |
6% |
19% |
|
65 |
2% |
13% |
|
66 |
3% |
11% |
|
67 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
68 |
0.8% |
8% |
|
69 |
0.8% |
7% |
|
70 |
4% |
6% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
76 |
0% |
1.2% |
|
77 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
78 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
79 |
0.9% |
1.1% |
|
80 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
81 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ARA Public Opinion
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 16–28 December 2023
Calculations
- Sample size: 974
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.91%