Opinion Poll by Panelbase, 18–24 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 37.0% 35.1–39.0% 34.6–39.6% 34.1–40.1% 33.2–41.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 20.0–24.2% 19.6–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1% 16.7–21.5% 16.0–22.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Reform UK 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 58–63 57–64 55–65 54–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 29 25–32 25–33 24–34 24–35
Scottish Labour 24 25 22–27 22–28 21–29 18–30
Scottish Greens 6 7 4–10 3–10 3–10 3–10
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–9 5–9 5–10 5–11
Reform UK 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–6
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 1.3% 99.5%  
55 2% 98%  
56 1.3% 97%  
57 2% 95%  
58 3% 93%  
59 8% 90%  
60 24% 81%  
61 31% 57% Median
62 14% 26%  
63 6% 11% Last Result
64 3% 6%  
65 1.1% 3% Majority
66 1.0% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 4% 99.5%  
25 8% 96%  
26 9% 88%  
27 11% 78%  
28 9% 68%  
29 10% 58% Median
30 14% 48%  
31 18% 34% Last Result
32 10% 16%  
33 2% 6%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.8% 1.3%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 0.6% 99.5%  
20 0.6% 98.9%  
21 2% 98%  
22 8% 97%  
23 16% 89%  
24 21% 73% Last Result
25 23% 52% Median
26 15% 29%  
27 8% 14%  
28 3% 6%  
29 1.5% 3%  
30 1.0% 1.5%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 5% 99.7%  
4 7% 94%  
5 12% 87%  
6 18% 75% Last Result
7 10% 57% Median
8 9% 47%  
9 18% 38%  
10 20% 20%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 16% 99.9% Last Result
6 34% 84%  
7 12% 51% Median
8 27% 38%  
9 6% 11%  
10 4% 5%  
11 0.7% 1.0%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 40%  
2 5% 18%  
3 8% 12%  
4 3% 5%  
5 1.1% 2%  
6 0.4% 0.7%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 68 86% 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–75
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 60 10% 57–64 56–65 55–67 53–68
Scottish National Party 63 61 3% 58–63 57–64 55–65 54–66
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 53 0% 50–57 49–58 49–59 47–62
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 38 0% 35–42 35–43 34–44 32–45
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 36 0% 32–40 32–40 31–41 29–43
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 31 0% 29–35 28–35 27–36 25–38

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 1.2% 99.2%  
62 2% 98%  
63 4% 96%  
64 7% 93%  
65 7% 86% Majority
66 13% 79%  
67 13% 66%  
68 10% 53% Median
69 12% 43% Last Result
70 13% 31%  
71 9% 18%  
72 5% 8%  
73 2% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.9% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.6%  
56 4% 97%  
57 7% 93%  
58 13% 86%  
59 15% 73%  
60 11% 58% Last Result
61 12% 47% Median
62 10% 35%  
63 10% 25%  
64 5% 15%  
65 5% 10% Majority
66 2% 5%  
67 1.2% 3%  
68 1.0% 1.4%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 1.3% 99.5%  
55 2% 98%  
56 1.3% 97%  
57 2% 95%  
58 3% 93%  
59 8% 90%  
60 24% 81%  
61 31% 57% Median
62 14% 26%  
63 6% 11% Last Result
64 3% 6%  
65 1.1% 3% Majority
66 1.0% 1.4%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.6%  
48 1.5% 99.0%  
49 5% 98%  
50 9% 93%  
51 10% 84%  
52 13% 74%  
53 12% 61%  
54 10% 49% Median
55 12% 39% Last Result
56 10% 27%  
57 8% 16%  
58 4% 9%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.2%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.5% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.4%  
34 2% 98%  
35 7% 96% Last Result
36 12% 90%  
37 15% 78%  
38 13% 63%  
39 14% 50% Median
40 9% 36%  
41 10% 27%  
42 9% 17%  
43 4% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.3%  
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 3% 98%  
32 7% 95%  
33 9% 89%  
34 11% 79%  
35 14% 68%  
36 13% 54% Last Result, Median
37 15% 42%  
38 9% 26%  
39 7% 18%  
40 5% 10%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.1% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.7%  
26 0.6% 99.3%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 3% 97%  
29 11% 94% Last Result
30 17% 83%  
31 18% 66%  
32 18% 49% Median
33 14% 31%  
34 6% 16%  
35 6% 10%  
36 3% 4%  
37 1.1% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations