Reform UK

Voting Intentions | Seats

Voting Intentions

Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 5 May 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 1.6% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.4% 0.6–2.6% 0.5–2.8%
2–4 May 2021 YouGov
The Times		 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
4 May 2021 Survation
The Courier		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 April–4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 May 2021 Opinium
Sky News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 May 2021 Ipsos MORI
STV News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–30 April 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 April 2021 BMG Research
The Herald		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–27 April 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
23–26 April 2021 Survation
GMB		 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
21–26 April 2021 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–22 April 2021 Survation
The Sunday Post		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–20 April 2021 YouGov
The Times		 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%
16–20 April 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
7–19 April 2021 Lord Ashcroft 2.0% 1.6–2.5% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9%
9–12 April 2021 Panelbase
Believe in Scotland		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–7 April 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–6 April 2021 Opinium
Sky News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 March–4 April 2021 Ipsos MORI
STV News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
30 March–1 April 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–30 March 2021 Survation
The Courier		 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
23–26 March 2021 Find Out Now
Daily Express		 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
19–22 March 2021 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
16–19 March 2021 BMG Research
Herald Scotland		 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
11–18 March 2021 Survation
The Courier		 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%
11–16 March 2021 Opinium
Sky News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–12 March 2021 Survation
Scotland in Union		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–10 March 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–8 March 2021 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–5 March 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–25 February 2021 Survation
Daily Record		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
15–21 February 2021 Ipsos MORI
STV News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 February 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
19–22 January 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–13 January 2021 Survation
Scot Goes Pop		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–13 January 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
11–15 December 2020 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4–9 December 2020 Survation 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
20–26 November 2020 Ipsos MORI
STV News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–11 November 2020 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–10 November 2020 YouGov 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 November 2020 Survation 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
9 October 2020 Savanta ComRes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–9 October 2020 Ipsos MORI
STV News		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
17–21 September 2020 JL Partners
Politico		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–7 September 2020 Survation 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
6–13 August 2020 Savanta ComRes 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
6–10 August 2020 YouGov
The Times		 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
3 July 2020 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–5 June 2020 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase
Wings Over Scotland		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–27 April 2020 YouGov 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–26 March 2020 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
28–31 January 2020 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
20–22 January 2020 Survation
Progress Scotland		 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
3–6 December 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
3 December 2019 YouGov
The Times		 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
20–22 November 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
9–11 October 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
3 September 2019 YouGov
The Times		 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
18–20 June 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.4–8.2%
14–17 May 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.3%
24–26 April 2019 YouGov
The Times		 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
18–24 April 2019 Panelbase 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
6 March 2019 Panelbase
Wings Over Scotland		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–4 March 2019 Survation
Scottish Daily Mail		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 December 2018 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–7 November 2018 Panelbase
Constitutional Commission		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
18–21 October 2018 Survation
Daily Record		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
3–5 October 2018 Survation
SNP		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 October 2018 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 October 2018 Survation
The Sunday Post		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
5–10 July 2018 Survation
Daily Record		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
21–27 June 2018 Panelbase
Wings Over Scotland		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–13 June 2018 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–5 June 2018 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 January 2018 Survation
Daily Record		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
12–16 January 2018 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
1–5 December 2017 Survation
The Sunday Post		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
27–30 November 2017 Survation
Daily Record		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
2–5 October 2017 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
8–12 September 2017 Survation
Scottish Daily Mail		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
9–14 March 2017 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–29 November 2016 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 October 2016 BMG Research 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
29–31 August 2016 YouGov
The Times		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
24–28 June 2016 Survation
Scottish Daily Mail		 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A

Probability Mass Function

The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Reform UK.

Voting Intentions Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0.0–0.5% 1.2% 100% Last Result
0.5–1.5% 47% 98.8%  
1.5–2.5% 49% 52% Median
2.5–3.5% 3% 3%  
3.5–4.5% 0% 0%  

Seats

Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 5 May 2016)

Confidence Intervals

Period Polling firm/Commissioner(s) Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
N/A Poll Average 0 0 0 0 0
2–4 May 2021 YouGov
The Times		 0 0 0 0 0
4 May 2021 Survation
The Courier		          
30 April–4 May 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
3 May 2021 Opinium
Sky News		          
3 May 2021 Ipsos MORI
STV News		          
28–30 April 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
27–30 April 2021 BMG Research
The Herald		          
23–27 April 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
23–26 April 2021 Survation
GMB		 0 0 0 0 0
21–26 April 2021 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		          
20–22 April 2021 Survation
The Sunday Post		          
16–20 April 2021 YouGov
The Times		 0 0 0 0 0
16–20 April 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
7–19 April 2021 Lord Ashcroft 0 0 0 0 0
9–12 April 2021 Panelbase
Believe in Scotland		          
2–7 April 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
1–6 April 2021 Opinium
Sky News		          
30 March–4 April 2021 Ipsos MORI
STV News		          
30 March–1 April 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
29–30 March 2021 Survation
The Courier		 0 0 0 0 0
23–26 March 2021 Find Out Now
Daily Express		 0 0 0 0 0
19–22 March 2021 YouGov
The Times		          
16–19 March 2021 BMG Research
Herald Scotland		 0 0 0 0 0
11–18 March 2021 Survation
The Courier		 0 0 0 0 0
11–16 March 2021 Opinium
Sky News		          
9–12 March 2021 Survation
Scotland in Union		          
5–10 March 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
4–8 March 2021 YouGov
The Times		          
3–5 March 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
24–25 February 2021 Survation
Daily Record		          
15–21 February 2021 Ipsos MORI
STV News		          
4–9 February 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
19–22 January 2021 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
11–13 January 2021 Survation
Scot Goes Pop		          
8–13 January 2021 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
11–15 December 2020 Savanta ComRes
The Scotsman		          
4–9 December 2020 Survation 0 0 0 0 0
20–26 November 2020 Ipsos MORI
STV News		          
5–11 November 2020 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		          
6–10 November 2020 YouGov          
3 November 2020 Survation 0 0 0 0 0
9 October 2020 Savanta ComRes          
2–9 October 2020 Ipsos MORI
STV News		          
17–21 September 2020 JL Partners
Politico		          
2–7 September 2020 Survation 0 0 0 0 0
6–13 August 2020 Savanta ComRes          
6–10 August 2020 YouGov
The Times		 0 0 0 0 0
3 July 2020 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
1–5 June 2020 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		          
1–5 May 2020 Panelbase
Wings Over Scotland		          
24–27 April 2020 YouGov          
24–26 March 2020 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
28–31 January 2020 Panelbase
Scot Goes Pop		          
20–22 January 2020 Survation
Progress Scotland		 0 0 0 0 0
3–6 December 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0 0 0 0 0
3 December 2019 YouGov
The Times		 0 0 0 0 0
20–22 November 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0 0 0 0 0–1
9–11 October 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–6
3 September 2019 YouGov
The Times		 4 1–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
18–20 June 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 5 3–8 2–8 1–8 0–8
14–17 May 2019 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		 6 3–8 3–8 1–8 0–8
24–26 April 2019 YouGov
The Times		 3 0–6 0–7 0–8 0–8
18–24 April 2019 Panelbase 0 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–6
6 March 2019 Panelbase
Wings Over Scotland		          
1–4 March 2019 Survation
Scottish Daily Mail		          
5 December 2018 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
2–7 November 2018 Panelbase
Constitutional Commission		          
18–21 October 2018 Survation
Daily Record		          
3–5 October 2018 Survation
SNP		          
4 October 2018 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
2 October 2018 Survation
The Sunday Post		          
5–10 July 2018 Survation
Daily Record		          
21–27 June 2018 Panelbase
Wings Over Scotland		          
8–13 June 2018 Panelbase
The Sunday Times		          
1–5 June 2018 YouGov
The Times		          
24–28 January 2018 Survation
Daily Record		          
12–16 January 2018 YouGov
The Times		          
1–5 December 2017 Survation
The Sunday Post		          
27–30 November 2017 Survation
Daily Record		          
2–5 October 2017 YouGov
The Times		          
8–12 September 2017 Survation
Scottish Daily Mail		          
9–14 March 2017 YouGov
The Times		          
24–29 November 2016 YouGov
The Times		          
4 October 2016 BMG Research          
29–31 August 2016 YouGov
The Times		          
24–28 June 2016 Survation
Scottish Daily Mail		          

Probability Mass Function

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Reform UK.

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median