Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 24–26 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 36.6% 34.7–38.6% 34.2–39.2% 33.7–39.6% 32.8–40.6%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.8% 18.3–21.5% 17.9–22.0% 17.5–22.4% 16.8–23.2%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 14.9% 13.5–16.4% 13.1–16.8% 12.8–17.2% 12.2–17.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Reform UK 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 62 60–66 59–67 59–68 57–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 26 23–30 22–30 21–31 20–32
Scottish Labour 24 18 17–21 17–23 16–23 16–24
Scottish Greens 6 11 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–9 5–10 5–10 5–11
Reform UK 0 3 0–6 0–7 0–8 0–8
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.4%  
59 5% 98%  
60 8% 93%  
61 15% 84%  
62 21% 69% Median
63 18% 48% Last Result
64 10% 31%  
65 8% 21% Majority
66 4% 13%  
67 5% 9%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.0% 99.8%  
21 1.5% 98.9%  
22 4% 97%  
23 4% 93%  
24 9% 89%  
25 18% 80%  
26 26% 63% Median
27 14% 37%  
28 5% 23%  
29 7% 17%  
30 7% 10%  
31 2% 3% Last Result
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 3% 99.5%  
17 44% 97%  
18 23% 53% Median
19 12% 30%  
20 4% 18%  
21 5% 14%  
22 4% 9%  
23 3% 5%  
24 2% 2% Last Result
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 40% 99.8%  
11 20% 60% Median
12 17% 40%  
13 17% 24%  
14 6% 7%  
15 0.8% 0.9%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 17% 99.8% Last Result
6 22% 83%  
7 19% 61% Median
8 29% 43%  
9 7% 13%  
10 5% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 12% 89%  
2 9% 77%  
3 19% 68% Median
4 15% 49%  
5 14% 34%  
6 11% 20%  
7 7% 10%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 74 100% 71–77 70–78 69–79 68–81
Scottish National Party 63 62 21% 60–66 59–67 59–68 57–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 51 0% 48–55 47–57 45–58 44–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 44 0% 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 36 0% 34–40 33–42 32–42 32–44
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 33 0% 30–37 29–37 28–38 27–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 25 0% 23–29 22–30 22–31 22–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100% Majority
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7%  
69 2% 99.2% Last Result
70 3% 97%  
71 8% 94%  
72 12% 86%  
73 21% 74% Median
74 15% 54%  
75 14% 39%  
76 11% 26%  
77 5% 14%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.6%  
58 2% 99.4%  
59 5% 98%  
60 8% 93%  
61 15% 84%  
62 21% 69% Median
63 18% 48% Last Result
64 10% 31%  
65 8% 21% Majority
66 4% 13%  
67 5% 9%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 95%  
48 5% 91%  
49 8% 86%  
50 15% 78%  
51 15% 63% Median
52 12% 48%  
53 13% 36%  
54 7% 23%  
55 8% 16%  
56 3% 9%  
57 3% 5%  
58 1.4% 3%  
59 1.0% 1.3%  
60 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.9% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.0%  
39 3% 98%  
40 2% 95%  
41 5% 93%  
42 14% 88%  
43 15% 75%  
44 16% 60% Median
45 11% 44%  
46 9% 33%  
47 9% 24%  
48 7% 15%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.9%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 6% 97%  
34 14% 91%  
35 14% 78% Last Result
36 15% 64% Median
37 13% 49%  
38 14% 36%  
39 9% 22%  
40 5% 13%  
41 3% 8%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 1.1% 1.3%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 2% 98%  
29 4% 96%  
30 5% 91%  
31 8% 86%  
32 12% 78%  
33 18% 66% Median
34 22% 48%  
35 8% 26%  
36 6% 17% Last Result
37 7% 11%  
38 2% 4%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.9% 1.1%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 9% 99.6%  
23 12% 91%  
24 19% 79%  
25 22% 60% Median
26 11% 38%  
27 11% 27%  
28 5% 16%  
29 5% 11% Last Result
30 2% 6%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.5%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations