Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 14–17 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 37.4% 35.5–39.4% 35.0–39.9% 34.5–40.4% 33.6–41.4%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.3–21.3% 16.9–21.7% 16.2–22.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 16.0–20.7% 15.3–21.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Reform UK 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.7% 4.4–8.3%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 62 60–65 59–66 59–67 57–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 24 21–26 21–27 20–28 19–29
Scottish Labour 24 23 19–25 18–26 18–26 17–27
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–11 6–12 5–13
Scottish Greens 6 6 3–10 3–10 3–10 2–10
Reform UK 0 6 3–8 3–8 1–8 0–8
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 1.3% 99.2%  
59 5% 98%  
60 19% 93%  
61 20% 74%  
62 18% 54% Median
63 14% 36% Last Result
64 11% 23%  
65 5% 11% Majority
66 4% 6%  
67 1.5% 3%  
68 1.0% 1.3%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 1.1% 99.6%  
20 3% 98.5%  
21 8% 95%  
22 18% 88%  
23 19% 70%  
24 27% 51% Median
25 13% 24%  
26 5% 11%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 1.0%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.6%  
19 4% 93%  
20 3% 89%  
21 7% 86%  
22 24% 79%  
23 22% 55% Median
24 15% 33% Last Result
25 13% 18%  
26 3% 5%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 9% 98%  
7 11% 89%  
8 33% 78% Median
9 21% 46%  
10 16% 25%  
11 5% 9%  
12 3% 4%  
13 1.4% 1.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.7% 100%  
3 10% 99.3%  
4 10% 90%  
5 13% 80%  
6 24% 67% Last Result, Median
7 14% 43%  
8 7% 30%  
9 8% 22%  
10 14% 14%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 2% 99.2%  
2 2% 97%  
3 7% 95%  
4 6% 89%  
5 25% 83%  
6 12% 57% Median
7 13% 45%  
8 32% 32%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 68 92% 65–72 64–73 63–75 62–77
Scottish National Party 63 62 11% 60–65 59–66 59–67 57–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 55 0.1% 51–58 50–59 48–60 46–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 46 0% 42–49 41–50 40–51 38–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 38 0% 34–41 33–42 33–43 31–44
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–35 28–36 28–37 26–39
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 31 0% 28–34 27–35 25–35 24–37

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 3% 99.2%  
64 4% 96%  
65 6% 92% Majority
66 14% 86%  
67 11% 73%  
68 14% 62% Median
69 13% 48% Last Result
70 14% 35%  
71 8% 21%  
72 5% 14%  
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.7%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 1.3% 99.2%  
59 5% 98%  
60 19% 93%  
61 20% 74%  
62 18% 54% Median
63 14% 36% Last Result
64 11% 23%  
65 5% 11% Majority
66 4% 6%  
67 1.5% 3%  
68 1.0% 1.3%  
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 0.8% 99.3%  
48 1.0% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 6% 92%  
52 7% 85%  
53 11% 78%  
54 13% 67%  
55 17% 54% Median
56 12% 38%  
57 10% 25%  
58 10% 16%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3% Last Result
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.9% 99.4%  
40 2% 98%  
41 2% 97%  
42 5% 95%  
43 7% 90%  
44 8% 83%  
45 11% 75%  
46 18% 64%  
47 15% 45% Median
48 13% 30%  
49 8% 17%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.2% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.4% 99.6%  
32 1.2% 99.2%  
33 4% 98%  
34 6% 94%  
35 9% 89% Last Result
36 14% 80%  
37 16% 66% Median
38 14% 50%  
39 16% 36%  
40 8% 20%  
41 6% 12%  
42 3% 6%  
43 2% 3%  
44 1.0% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.6% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.1%  
28 3% 98%  
29 8% 94%  
30 13% 87%  
31 16% 74%  
32 17% 59% Median
33 17% 41%  
34 11% 24%  
35 7% 13%  
36 3% 6% Last Result
37 2% 3%  
38 0.7% 1.3%  
39 0.3% 0.6%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.4% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.6%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 2% 97%  
27 4% 95%  
28 5% 91%  
29 10% 86% Last Result
30 14% 76%  
31 15% 62% Median
32 16% 47%  
33 16% 31%  
34 9% 15%  
35 4% 6%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.6% 0.9%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations