Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 18–20 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 39.6% | 37.6–41.5% | 37.1–42.1% | 36.6–42.6% | 35.7–43.5% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 20.3% | 18.8–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 18.0–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 16.2% | 14.8–17.8% | 14.4–18.2% | 14.1–18.6% | 13.4–19.4% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 10.2% | 9.0–11.5% | 8.7–11.8% | 8.4–12.2% | 7.9–12.8% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.4% |
| Reform UK | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.4–8.2% |
| UK Independence Party | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 63 | 60–67 | 60–67 | 59–67 | 58–68 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 24 | 21–26 | 20–28 | 20–29 | 19–31 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 19 | 17–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 | 7–14 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 6 | 3–10 | 3–10 | 2–10 | 2–10 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 5 | 3–8 | 2–8 | 1–8 | 0–8 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 8% | 97% | |
| 61 | 18% | 89% | |
| 62 | 20% | 71% | |
| 63 | 15% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 64 | 12% | 37% | |
| 65 | 7% | 25% | Majority |
| 66 | 6% | 18% | |
| 67 | 10% | 12% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 4% | 98% | |
| 21 | 5% | 94% | |
| 22 | 11% | 90% | |
| 23 | 21% | 79% | |
| 24 | 24% | 58% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 34% | |
| 26 | 7% | 16% | |
| 27 | 4% | 9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 5% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 0.8% | Last Result |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 7% | 99.3% | |
| 17 | 22% | 93% | |
| 18 | 20% | 70% | |
| 19 | 15% | 50% | Median |
| 20 | 9% | 35% | |
| 21 | 7% | 26% | |
| 22 | 12% | 18% | |
| 23 | 6% | 6% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 8% | 96% | |
| 10 | 22% | 88% | |
| 11 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 44% | |
| 13 | 22% | 28% | |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 9% | 95% | |
| 4 | 16% | 86% | |
| 5 | 12% | 70% | |
| 6 | 12% | 58% | Last Result, Median |
| 7 | 4% | 46% | |
| 8 | 8% | 42% | |
| 9 | 13% | 34% | |
| 10 | 20% | 21% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reform UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 98% | |
| 2 | 4% | 96% | |
| 3 | 6% | 92% | |
| 4 | 8% | 86% | |
| 5 | 35% | 79% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 43% | |
| 7 | 17% | 28% | |
| 8 | 11% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 70 | 93% | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–76 | 62–77 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 63 | 25% | 60–67 | 60–67 | 59–67 | 58–68 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 54 | 0.1% | 50–58 | 49–59 | 48–60 | 46–63 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 43 | 0% | 39–46 | 38–48 | 37–49 | 36–50 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens | 35 | 37 | 0% | 33–40 | 32–41 | 31–42 | 30–44 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 35 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 31–41 | 29–42 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 30 | 0% | 27–34 | 26–35 | 26–36 | 24–36 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 64 | 5% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 93% | Majority |
| 66 | 8% | 88% | |
| 67 | 8% | 80% | |
| 68 | 11% | 72% | |
| 69 | 7% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 70 | 14% | 55% | |
| 71 | 13% | 41% | |
| 72 | 10% | 27% | |
| 73 | 7% | 17% | |
| 74 | 3% | 10% | |
| 75 | 4% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 8% | 97% | |
| 61 | 18% | 89% | |
| 62 | 20% | 71% | |
| 63 | 15% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 64 | 12% | 37% | |
| 65 | 7% | 25% | Majority |
| 66 | 6% | 18% | |
| 67 | 10% | 12% | |
| 68 | 2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 4% | 93% | |
| 51 | 9% | 89% | |
| 52 | 8% | 79% | |
| 53 | 14% | 71% | |
| 54 | 13% | 57% | Median |
| 55 | 13% | 44% | |
| 56 | 9% | 32% | |
| 57 | 6% | 22% | |
| 58 | 7% | 16% | |
| 59 | 5% | 9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 38 | 4% | 97% | |
| 39 | 4% | 93% | |
| 40 | 7% | 89% | |
| 41 | 16% | 82% | |
| 42 | 13% | 65% | |
| 43 | 12% | 53% | Median |
| 44 | 11% | 41% | |
| 45 | 11% | 30% | |
| 46 | 9% | 19% | |
| 47 | 5% | 10% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 32 | 3% | 97% | |
| 33 | 6% | 94% | |
| 34 | 6% | 88% | |
| 35 | 13% | 82% | Last Result |
| 36 | 14% | 69% | Median |
| 37 | 15% | 55% | |
| 38 | 12% | 40% | |
| 39 | 15% | 28% | |
| 40 | 6% | 13% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 6% | 95% | |
| 33 | 13% | 89% | |
| 34 | 18% | 76% | |
| 35 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 36 | 12% | 41% | Last Result |
| 37 | 13% | 28% | |
| 38 | 7% | 15% | |
| 39 | 4% | 8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 10% | 94% | |
| 28 | 10% | 84% | |
| 29 | 12% | 74% | Last Result |
| 30 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 44% | |
| 32 | 14% | 33% | |
| 33 | 8% | 19% | |
| 34 | 4% | 11% | |
| 35 | 4% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Panelbase
- Commissioner(s): The Sunday Times
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1024
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.69%