Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 3 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 38.9% 37.0–40.9% 36.5–41.4% 36.0–41.9% 35.1–42.8%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.9% 18.4–21.6% 18.0–22.0% 17.6–22.5% 16.9–23.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 12.9% 11.7–14.4% 11.3–14.8% 11.1–15.1% 10.5–15.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.0% 8.7–13.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Reform UK 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.9–4.6%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 62 60–66 60–67 60–68 57–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 22–28 21–29 21–30 20–31
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 15 14–18 13–19 13–20 12–21
Scottish Labour 24 13 10–15 10–16 10–17 10–17
Scottish Greens 6 10 8–10 6–10 5–10 4–11
Reform UK 0 4 1–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 0.7% 99.2%  
60 10% 98.6%  
61 21% 88%  
62 21% 67% Median
63 9% 46% Last Result
64 12% 37%  
65 9% 25% Majority
66 10% 16%  
67 4% 7%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 7% 99.3%  
22 10% 92%  
23 8% 82%  
24 14% 73%  
25 11% 59% Median
26 18% 48%  
27 8% 30%  
28 13% 23%  
29 6% 10%  
30 2% 4%  
31 2% 2% Last Result
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.2% 100%  
12 1.1% 99.7%  
13 5% 98.7%  
14 26% 94%  
15 28% 68% Median
16 15% 40%  
17 9% 25%  
18 7% 16%  
19 5% 9%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.6% 0.6%  
22 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.3% 99.9%  
10 17% 99.6%  
11 20% 82%  
12 10% 62%  
13 14% 53% Median
14 23% 39%  
15 10% 16%  
16 2% 6%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 0.3% 99.7%  
5 2% 99.4%  
6 3% 97% Last Result
7 3% 94%  
8 4% 91%  
9 10% 88%  
10 76% 78% Median
11 1.3% 1.5%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 22% 91%  
2 8% 69%  
3 11% 61%  
4 20% 50% Median
5 11% 30%  
6 13% 19%  
7 4% 5%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 72 99.7% 70–76 69–77 68–77 66–78
Scottish National Party 63 62 25% 60–66 60–67 60–68 57–68
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Labour 60 54 0% 50–57 49–58 48–59 46–60
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 41 0% 37–44 36–45 35–46 34–48
Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens 35 38 0% 34–40 34–42 33–43 31–44
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 38 0% 34–41 33–42 32–43 31–45
Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Labour 29 28 0% 25–31 24–33 24–33 23–35

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7% Majority
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 0.7% 98.9%  
68 1.1% 98%  
69 4% 97% Last Result
70 13% 93%  
71 22% 80%  
72 19% 58% Median
73 8% 39%  
74 11% 31%  
75 7% 20%  
76 8% 13%  
77 4% 6%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.6%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 0.7% 99.2%  
60 10% 98.6%  
61 21% 88%  
62 21% 67% Median
63 9% 46% Last Result
64 12% 37%  
65 9% 25% Majority
66 10% 16%  
67 4% 7%  
68 3% 3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 0.7% 99.2%  
48 3% 98.6%  
49 6% 96%  
50 4% 90%  
51 12% 86%  
52 15% 74%  
53 6% 59% Median
54 15% 52%  
55 11% 37%  
56 15% 26%  
57 5% 11%  
58 3% 6%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 0.7% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 3% 99.4%  
36 3% 96% Last Result
37 6% 93%  
38 10% 87%  
39 10% 77%  
40 10% 67% Median
41 13% 57%  
42 14% 44%  
43 14% 30%  
44 10% 16%  
45 3% 6%  
46 1.1% 3%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.8%  
32 0.5% 98%  
33 2% 98%  
34 6% 96%  
35 9% 89% Last Result
36 11% 81%  
37 10% 70%  
38 25% 60% Median
39 13% 35%  
40 13% 22%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 4% 99.3%  
33 5% 95%  
34 4% 90%  
35 6% 86%  
36 11% 80%  
37 12% 69%  
38 11% 56% Median
39 13% 45%  
40 16% 33%  
41 10% 16%  
42 3% 7%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.8%  
24 4% 99.1%  
25 10% 95%  
26 11% 85%  
27 8% 74%  
28 22% 65% Median
29 17% 43% Last Result
30 13% 27%  
31 6% 14%  
32 3% 8%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations