Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 20–22 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 39.0% 37.1–41.0% 36.5–41.6% 36.1–42.1% 35.2–43.1%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.7% 21.6–28.6%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Reform UK 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 57–64 56–64 55–65 55–65
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 32 31–36 30–36 29–37 26–38
Scottish Labour 24 22 20–24 18–25 17–25 16–26
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 10 8–13 8–13 7–13 6–14
Scottish Greens 6 4 2–6 2–8 2–10 2–10
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.6%  
56 5% 97%  
57 5% 92%  
58 6% 87%  
59 8% 81%  
60 20% 73%  
61 17% 53% Median
62 10% 36%  
63 14% 26% Last Result
64 9% 12%  
65 3% 3% Majority
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.8%  
27 0.6% 99.4%  
28 0.9% 98.8%  
29 2% 98%  
30 6% 96%  
31 27% 90% Last Result
32 18% 63% Median
33 14% 45%  
34 12% 30%  
35 8% 19%  
36 8% 11%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.6% 100%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 3% 97%  
19 3% 94%  
20 12% 91%  
21 24% 79%  
22 28% 55% Median
23 12% 27%  
24 9% 16% Last Result
25 5% 6%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 1.2% 99.9%  
7 2% 98.7%  
8 14% 96%  
9 19% 82%  
10 22% 63% Median
11 21% 41%  
12 7% 19%  
13 11% 12%  
14 1.3% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 15% 100%  
3 31% 85%  
4 26% 54% Median
5 10% 28%  
6 9% 17% Last Result
7 3% 9%  
8 1.4% 6%  
9 2% 4%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.8%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 65 53% 61–68 60–69 59–71 58–73
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 64 47% 61–68 60–69 58–70 56–71
Scottish National Party 63 61 3% 57–64 56–64 55–65 55–65
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 54 0% 51–57 50–58 48–59 46–60
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 42 0% 40–46 39–47 38–48 36–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 36 0% 33–39 33–40 32–40 31–42
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 32 0% 29–35 28–36 27–36 25–37

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.9% 99.5%  
59 3% 98.6%  
60 3% 96%  
61 6% 93%  
62 9% 88%  
63 15% 79%  
64 11% 64%  
65 12% 53% Median, Majority
66 16% 40%  
67 12% 24%  
68 5% 12%  
69 3% 7% Last Result
70 1.3% 4%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 1.2% 99.2%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 1.4% 97%  
60 3% 96% Last Result
61 5% 93%  
62 12% 88%  
63 16% 76%  
64 12% 60% Median
65 11% 47% Majority
66 15% 36%  
67 9% 21%  
68 6% 12%  
69 3% 7%  
70 3% 4%  
71 0.9% 1.3%  
72 0.4% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 2% 99.6%  
56 5% 97%  
57 5% 92%  
58 6% 87%  
59 8% 81%  
60 20% 73%  
61 17% 53% Median
62 10% 36%  
63 14% 26% Last Result
64 9% 12%  
65 3% 3% Majority
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.4%  
48 1.5% 98.6%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 6% 92%  
52 10% 86%  
53 16% 76%  
54 14% 60% Median
55 11% 46% Last Result
56 13% 34%  
57 12% 22%  
58 5% 10%  
59 4% 5%  
60 0.7% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
37 0.8% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 4% 97%  
40 8% 93%  
41 19% 85%  
42 19% 66% Median
43 14% 47%  
44 11% 33%  
45 8% 22%  
46 7% 14%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.8% 1.2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.7% 99.5%  
32 3% 98.8%  
33 14% 96%  
34 15% 82%  
35 13% 68% Last Result
36 14% 54% Median
37 15% 40%  
38 13% 25%  
39 7% 13%  
40 3% 6%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.6%  
26 0.8% 98.9%  
27 1.4% 98%  
28 3% 97%  
29 8% 94% Last Result
30 13% 86%  
31 20% 73%  
32 18% 53% Median
33 12% 35%  
34 9% 24%  
35 9% 14%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations