Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 3 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 37.2% 35.3–39.2% 34.8–39.8% 34.3–40.3% 33.4–41.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 25.1% 23.4–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–27.9% 21.8–28.8%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.4–16.0% 12.1–16.4% 11.4–17.1%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 10.1% 8.9–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.8–12.8%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.6–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Reform UK 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 58 55–62 54–63 54–63 53–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 33 30–35 29–36 27–36 27–38
Scottish Labour 24 16 16–18 16–19 16–20 15–21
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 13 10–13 9–14 8–14 7–15
Scottish Greens 6 10 9–10 7–11 5–11 4–12
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 5% 99.1%  
55 12% 94%  
56 13% 83%  
57 19% 70%  
58 3% 51% Median
59 9% 48%  
60 7% 39%  
61 15% 32%  
62 12% 17%  
63 4% 5% Last Result
64 1.0% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.6%  
28 0.6% 96%  
29 4% 96%  
30 13% 92%  
31 18% 79% Last Result
32 11% 61%  
33 24% 50% Median
34 6% 26%  
35 12% 20%  
36 6% 8%  
37 1.3% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.6%  
16 56% 98% Median
17 24% 42%  
18 9% 17%  
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.8%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0% 100% Last Result
6 0.1% 100%  
7 0.5% 99.9%  
8 2% 99.4%  
9 5% 97%  
10 10% 92%  
11 17% 82%  
12 8% 65%  
13 51% 57% Median
14 5% 6%  
15 0.5% 0.5%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 1.2% 99.6%  
5 1.5% 98%  
6 0.8% 97% Last Result
7 2% 96%  
8 3% 95%  
9 11% 91%  
10 74% 80% Median
11 5% 6%  
12 1.2% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 67 91% 65–72 64–72 63–73 62–74
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 62 9% 57–64 57–65 56–66 55–67
Scottish National Party 63 58 0.2% 55–62 54–63 54–63 53–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 49 0% 47–52 45–53 44–53 44–55
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 45 0% 41–48 40–49 40–49 38–50
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 39 0% 36–41 35–41 34–41 33–43
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 29 0% 26–31 25–32 25–32 24–33

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 2% 98.9%  
64 5% 96%  
65 15% 91% Majority
66 9% 76%  
67 18% 67%  
68 4% 48% Median
69 9% 45% Last Result
70 8% 36%  
71 13% 28%  
72 11% 15%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 3% 99.4%  
57 11% 97%  
58 13% 85%  
59 8% 72%  
60 9% 64% Last Result
61 4% 55%  
62 18% 52% Median
63 9% 33%  
64 15% 24%  
65 5% 9% Majority
66 2% 4%  
67 0.7% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 5% 99.1%  
55 12% 94%  
56 13% 83%  
57 19% 70%  
58 3% 51% Median
59 9% 48%  
60 7% 39%  
61 15% 32%  
62 12% 17%  
63 4% 5% Last Result
64 1.0% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.2% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 3% 99.8%  
45 2% 97%  
46 5% 95%  
47 23% 90%  
48 9% 67%  
49 19% 58% Median
50 8% 39%  
51 17% 30%  
52 6% 13%  
53 4% 6%  
54 0.9% 2%  
55 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0% 99.9% Last Result
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 0.9% 99.1%  
40 7% 98%  
41 17% 92%  
42 11% 75%  
43 4% 64%  
44 9% 60%  
45 6% 52%  
46 25% 46% Median
47 7% 21%  
48 8% 14%  
49 5% 6%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.7%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 5% 96% Last Result
36 8% 91%  
37 11% 83%  
38 18% 72%  
39 33% 54% Median
40 10% 21%  
41 9% 11%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.7%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 5% 98%  
26 10% 94%  
27 5% 84%  
28 15% 79%  
29 40% 65% Last Result, Median
30 11% 25%  
31 9% 14%  
32 3% 5%  
33 1.1% 2%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations