Opinion Poll by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, 3–6 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 38.0% 36.1–40.0% 35.6–40.6% 35.1–41.1% 34.2–42.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.0% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Reform UK 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 59 55–62 55–63 54–63 53–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 34 31–36 31–37 30–37 28–39
Scottish Labour 24 23 21–25 20–25 19–26 18–27
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 10 8–13 8–13 7–13 6–13
Scottish Greens 6 3 2–6 2–7 2–8 2–10
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 3% 99.1%  
55 9% 96%  
56 15% 87%  
57 8% 72%  
58 12% 64%  
59 10% 52% Median
60 20% 42%  
61 11% 21%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 5% Last Result
64 2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.5%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 18% 96% Last Result
32 16% 79%  
33 12% 62%  
34 14% 50% Median
35 18% 36%  
36 10% 19%  
37 7% 9%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 0.8% 99.5%  
19 1.3% 98.8%  
20 4% 97%  
21 16% 94%  
22 22% 78%  
23 18% 55% Median
24 19% 37% Last Result
25 14% 18%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.9% 1.0%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 2% 99.9%  
7 2% 98%  
8 14% 96%  
9 14% 82%  
10 22% 68% Median
11 24% 46%  
12 8% 22%  
13 14% 14%  
14 0.4% 0.4%  
15 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 19% 100%  
3 32% 81% Median
4 24% 50%  
5 10% 26%  
6 7% 15% Last Result
7 5% 8%  
8 1.1% 3%  
9 1.0% 2%  
10 1.1% 1.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 67 78% 63–70 62–71 61–72 58–73
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 62 22% 59–66 58–67 57–68 56–71
Scottish National Party 63 59 0.5% 55–62 55–63 54–63 53–64
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 57 0% 53–59 52–60 51–61 49–62
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 44 0% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 37 0% 34–40 33–40 33–41 32–43
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 33 0% 30–36 30–37 29–37 26–38

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 0.6% 99.0% Last Result
61 1.0% 98%  
62 4% 97%  
63 8% 94%  
64 7% 85%  
65 11% 78% Majority
66 14% 67%  
67 15% 53% Median
68 11% 37%  
69 11% 26%  
70 8% 15%  
71 4% 8%  
72 3% 4%  
73 1.0% 1.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 1.0% 99.9%  
57 3% 98.9%  
58 4% 96%  
59 8% 92%  
60 11% 85%  
61 11% 74%  
62 15% 63% Median
63 14% 47%  
64 11% 33%  
65 7% 22% Majority
66 8% 15%  
67 4% 6%  
68 1.0% 3%  
69 0.6% 2% Last Result
70 0.5% 1.0%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.8%  
54 3% 99.1%  
55 9% 96%  
56 15% 87%  
57 8% 72%  
58 12% 64%  
59 10% 52% Median
60 20% 42%  
61 11% 21%  
62 5% 10%  
63 3% 5% Last Result
64 2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 0.6% 99.2%  
51 1.4% 98.6%  
52 3% 97%  
53 8% 94%  
54 10% 86%  
55 10% 76% Last Result
56 14% 66%  
57 19% 53% Median
58 12% 33%  
59 14% 21%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.1%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Majority

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.6%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 6% 97%  
41 14% 92%  
42 12% 77%  
43 14% 65%  
44 11% 51% Median
45 11% 40%  
46 12% 29%  
47 7% 16%  
48 6% 9%  
49 2% 3%  
50 1.0% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.6%  
33 5% 98%  
34 9% 93%  
35 9% 84% Last Result
36 15% 75% Median
37 16% 60%  
38 20% 44%  
39 12% 24%  
40 7% 12%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.7%  
27 0.4% 99.5%  
28 1.3% 99.1%  
29 3% 98% Last Result
30 7% 95%  
31 12% 88%  
32 17% 76%  
33 15% 59% Median
34 15% 44%  
35 13% 29%  
36 8% 15%  
37 6% 7%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations