Opinion Poll by Survation for Progress Scotland, 20–22 January 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 38.3% 36.4–40.3% 35.8–40.8% 35.3–41.3% 34.4–42.3%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.8% 18.1–24.7%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.1% 17.6–20.8% 17.2–21.3% 16.8–21.7% 16.1–22.5%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 9.0% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Reform UK 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 61 59–65 58–67 57–68 55–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 25 23–27 22–29 21–30 20–31
Scottish Labour 24 23 21–26 20–26 19–27 18–28
Scottish Greens 6 10 9–10 8–11 7–12 5–13
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 9 8–12 7–13 6–13 6–13
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.1%  
57 1.1% 98.6%  
58 4% 97%  
59 13% 94%  
60 19% 81%  
61 25% 61% Median
62 10% 36%  
63 10% 26% Last Result
64 4% 16%  
65 4% 12% Majority
66 2% 8%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 1.0% 1.2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.1%  
22 3% 95%  
23 8% 92%  
24 29% 84%  
25 21% 55% Median
26 14% 34%  
27 10% 19%  
28 4% 10%  
29 3% 5%  
30 1.4% 3%  
31 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 1.1% 99.7%  
19 2% 98.7%  
20 3% 96%  
21 8% 93%  
22 15% 85%  
23 26% 70% Median
24 19% 44% Last Result
25 13% 26%  
26 9% 12%  
27 3% 3%  
28 0.5% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 0.3% 99.7%  
6 1.3% 99.4% Last Result
7 1.0% 98%  
8 3% 97%  
9 8% 94%  
10 77% 86% Median
11 7% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100% Last Result
6 2% 99.9%  
7 4% 97%  
8 27% 93%  
9 17% 66% Median
10 27% 49%  
11 8% 21%  
12 8% 13%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 71 99.3% 69–75 68–77 67–78 64–80
Scottish National Party 63 61 12% 59–65 58–67 57–68 55–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 58 0.7% 54–60 52–61 51–62 49–65
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 48 0% 45–51 44–52 42–53 41–55
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 40–45 39–46 38–46 36–48
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 34 0% 31–38 30–38 29–40 27–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 33 0% 30–35 29–36 28–36 26–38

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.5% 99.3% Majority
66 1.0% 98.8%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 13% 91% Last Result
70 16% 79%  
71 26% 62% Median
72 11% 37%  
73 10% 25%  
74 5% 15%  
75 4% 10%  
76 1.1% 6%  
77 3% 5%  
78 0.8% 3%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 1.2% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.1%  
57 1.1% 98.6%  
58 4% 97%  
59 13% 94%  
60 19% 81%  
61 25% 61% Median
62 10% 36%  
63 10% 26% Last Result
64 4% 16%  
65 4% 12% Majority
66 2% 8%  
67 2% 6%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 1.0% 1.2%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 1.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 98.6%  
51 0.8% 98%  
52 3% 97%  
53 1.1% 95%  
54 4% 94%  
55 5% 90%  
56 10% 85%  
57 11% 75% Median
58 26% 63%  
59 16% 38%  
60 13% 21% Last Result
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.0% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.7% Majority
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.4% 100%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 1.2% 98.7%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 4% 93%  
46 8% 89%  
47 13% 80%  
48 20% 68% Median
49 17% 48%  
50 16% 31%  
51 10% 15%  
52 3% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.8% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
36 0.5% 99.6%  
37 0.9% 99.1%  
38 2% 98%  
39 5% 96%  
40 8% 91%  
41 9% 83%  
42 17% 74% Median
43 19% 57%  
44 17% 37%  
45 15% 20%  
46 4% 5%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.6%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.9%  
28 1.3% 99.1%  
29 0.5% 98%  
30 3% 97%  
31 5% 94%  
32 12% 89%  
33 12% 78%  
34 18% 65% Median
35 15% 47%  
36 11% 33% Last Result
37 12% 22%  
38 6% 11%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.2%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.3% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.7%  
27 0.8% 99.4%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 4% 97% Last Result
30 6% 93%  
31 10% 87%  
32 18% 77% Median
33 24% 59%  
34 15% 35%  
35 14% 20%  
36 4% 6%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations