Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 6–10 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 46.5% 44.6–48.4% 44.1–48.9% 43.6–49.4% 42.7–50.3%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 20.8% 19.3–22.4% 18.9–22.8% 18.5–23.2% 17.8–24.0%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 13.8% 12.6–15.2% 12.2–15.6% 11.9–16.0% 11.4–16.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.3% 5.6–8.6% 5.2–9.1%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.7–7.5% 4.4–8.0%
Scottish Socialist Party 0.5% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 3.0–5.2% 2.7–5.7%
Reform UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 72 70–74 69–75 68–76 66–77
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 28 26–31 25–31 24–32 23–33
Scottish Labour 24 17 16–19 16–20 16–21 14–22
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–9 5–9 5–9 5–10
Scottish Greens 6 4 3–8 2–10 2–10 2–10
Scottish Socialist Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.4% 100% Majority
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 13% 92%  
71 23% 79%  
72 28% 56% Median
73 12% 28%  
74 7% 16%  
75 5% 8%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.5% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 2% 99.0%  
25 6% 97%  
26 18% 91%  
27 13% 73%  
28 16% 60% Median
29 12% 44%  
30 12% 32%  
31 18% 20% Last Result
32 2% 3%  
33 0.7% 1.0%  
34 0.1% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.4% 99.7%  
15 0.8% 99.4%  
16 15% 98.6%  
17 46% 83% Median
18 22% 37%  
19 7% 15%  
20 4% 9%  
21 3% 4%  
22 1.3% 2%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
25 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 27% 99.8% Last Result
6 17% 73%  
7 14% 56% Median
8 31% 42%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 21% 92%  
4 32% 72% Median
5 19% 40%  
6 4% 21% Last Result
7 5% 17%  
8 2% 12%  
9 4% 10%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0% 0%  

Scottish Socialist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Socialist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 76 100% 74–80 73–81 72–81 70–83
Scottish National Party 63 72 100% 70–74 69–75 68–76 66–77
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 53 0% 49–55 48–56 48–57 46–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 46 0% 43–48 42–49 41–50 40–52
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–39 29–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens 35 29 0% 26–32 25–33 25–33 25–34
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 24 0% 22–27 22–28 22–29 20–30

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 1.0% 99.3%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 4% 97%  
74 8% 93%  
75 21% 86%  
76 26% 64% Median
77 12% 39%  
78 6% 27%  
79 10% 21%  
80 5% 11%  
81 4% 6%  
82 1.5% 2%  
83 0.8% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100% Last Result
64 0% 100%  
65 0.4% 100% Majority
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 2% 98%  
69 4% 96%  
70 13% 92%  
71 23% 79%  
72 28% 56% Median
73 12% 28%  
74 7% 16%  
75 5% 8%  
76 3% 4%  
77 0.5% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.8% 99.9%  
47 1.5% 99.1%  
48 4% 98%  
49 5% 94%  
50 10% 89%  
51 6% 79%  
52 12% 73% Median
53 26% 61%  
54 21% 36%  
55 8% 14%  
56 4% 7%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 5% 97%  
43 9% 92%  
44 6% 82%  
45 21% 76% Median
46 21% 55%  
47 11% 35%  
48 18% 24%  
49 2% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.1%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.9%  
30 2% 98.8%  
31 5% 97%  
32 7% 92%  
33 11% 85%  
34 11% 75%  
35 18% 63% Median
36 17% 46% Last Result
37 17% 29%  
38 6% 12%  
39 5% 6%  
40 1.0% 1.5%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 6% 99.5%  
26 10% 94%  
27 13% 84%  
28 15% 71% Median
29 13% 56%  
30 16% 43%  
31 10% 27%  
32 8% 17%  
33 7% 9%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.4%  
22 18% 98%  
23 18% 80%  
24 19% 62% Median
25 15% 43%  
26 13% 28%  
27 7% 14%  
28 4% 7%  
29 2% 3% Last Result
30 0.8% 0.9%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations