Opinion Poll by Survation, 2–7 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 41.8% 39.9–43.8% 39.3–44.4% 38.9–44.9% 37.9–45.9%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.4–9.8% 6.0–10.4%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Reform UK 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 67 63–70 63–71 62–71 60–72
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 21 19–24 19–25 19–25 18–26
Scottish Labour 24 22 19–25 19–25 18–26 17–27
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–11 5–11 5–11
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.5%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 8% 96% Last Result
64 8% 88%  
65 10% 80% Majority
66 10% 70%  
67 18% 59% Median
68 8% 41%  
69 21% 33%  
70 5% 12%  
71 6% 7%  
72 0.5% 0.5%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 15% 98%  
20 19% 83%  
21 23% 64% Median
22 15% 41%  
23 14% 26%  
24 6% 12%  
25 5% 6%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.8%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 8% 96%  
20 7% 88%  
21 20% 81%  
22 15% 61% Median
23 20% 46%  
24 10% 25% Last Result
25 13% 15%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.2% 99.9%  
9 0.8% 99.7%  
10 61% 98.9% Median
11 11% 38%  
12 13% 27%  
13 12% 14%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 4% 99.8% Last Result
6 19% 96%  
7 18% 77%  
8 26% 59% Median
9 15% 33%  
10 12% 18%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 78 100% 74–81 73–81 73–82 71–83
Scottish National Party 63 67 80% 63–70 63–71 62–71 60–72
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 51 0% 48–55 48–56 47–56 46–58
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 44 0% 40–47 40–47 39–48 38–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 41 0% 37–44 37–45 36–46 35–47
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 29 0% 27–32 26–33 26–34 25–35
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 30 0% 27–33 26–33 25–34 24–35

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.6% 99.9%  
72 2% 99.3%  
73 3% 98%  
74 6% 94%  
75 9% 88%  
76 9% 80%  
77 18% 71% Median
78 9% 52%  
79 21% 43%  
80 12% 22%  
81 7% 11%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.9% 99.5%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 8% 96% Last Result
64 8% 88%  
65 10% 80% Majority
66 10% 70%  
67 18% 59% Median
68 8% 41%  
69 21% 33%  
70 5% 12%  
71 6% 7%  
72 0.5% 0.5%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 1.4% 99.9%  
47 2% 98%  
48 7% 96%  
49 12% 89%  
50 21% 78%  
51 9% 57% Median
52 18% 48%  
53 9% 29%  
54 9% 20%  
55 6% 12%  
56 3% 6%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.6% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.8%  
40 8% 96%  
41 12% 87%  
42 12% 75%  
43 13% 63% Median
44 17% 50%  
45 12% 34%  
46 8% 22%  
47 9% 14%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.2% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.2% 99.5% Last Result
36 2% 98%  
37 10% 96%  
38 5% 87%  
39 13% 82%  
40 14% 69% Median
41 12% 55%  
42 16% 43%  
43 13% 27%  
44 8% 14%  
45 2% 6%  
46 4% 4%  
47 0.4% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 1.2% 99.5%  
26 6% 98%  
27 12% 92%  
28 19% 80%  
29 21% 61% Median
30 16% 40%  
31 10% 24%  
32 7% 14%  
33 4% 7%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.7%  
25 2% 99.0%  
26 4% 97%  
27 10% 92%  
28 6% 83%  
29 14% 76% Last Result
30 19% 62% Median
31 14% 43%  
32 12% 29%  
33 12% 16%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.6% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.5%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations