Opinion Poll by Survation, 3 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 43.0% 41.1–45.0% 40.6–45.6% 40.1–46.0% 39.2–47.0%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 19.0% 17.5–20.6% 17.1–21.0% 16.7–21.4% 16.0–22.2%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 17.0% 15.6–18.5% 15.2–19.0% 14.9–19.4% 14.2–20.1%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.3–11.9% 7.8–12.6%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.6–8.7% 5.2–9.3%
Reform UK 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%
UK Independence Party 2.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 67 64–69 63–70 63–70 63–72
Scottish Labour 24 24 22–26 21–26 20–28 18–29
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 20 19–23 18–23 18–23 17–25
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–13 10–13 10–13 10–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 6 5–8 5–9 5–9 4–11
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0
UK Independence Party 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 8% 99.6% Last Result
64 5% 92%  
65 12% 87% Majority
66 10% 75%  
67 22% 64% Median
68 12% 43%  
69 23% 31%  
70 6% 8%  
71 1.4% 2%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.5% 99.5%  
20 0.9% 98%  
21 3% 97%  
22 5% 94%  
23 28% 89%  
24 16% 61% Last Result, Median
25 30% 44%  
26 10% 14%  
27 2% 4%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.6% 0.8%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.6%  
18 4% 98%  
19 24% 94%  
20 29% 71% Median
21 19% 41%  
22 10% 23%  
23 10% 12%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.8% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.2% 99.9%  
10 50% 99.7% Median
11 23% 50%  
12 13% 26%  
13 12% 14%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 2% 100%  
5 21% 98% Last Result
6 29% 77% Median
7 21% 48%  
8 21% 27%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

UK Independence Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 78 100% 75–80 75–81 74–82 73–83
Scottish National Party 63 67 87% 64–69 63–70 63–70 63–72
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 51 0% 49–54 48–54 47–55 46–56
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 44 0% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–49
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 41 0% 39–44 39–46 37–46 35–48
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 30 0% 28–33 28–34 26–34 24–36
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–30 23–32

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100% Last Result
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.7% 99.9%  
74 4% 99.1%  
75 9% 95%  
76 12% 86%  
77 15% 74% Median
78 15% 59%  
79 18% 45%  
80 19% 26%  
81 4% 7%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 8% 99.6% Last Result
64 5% 92%  
65 12% 87% Majority
66 10% 75%  
67 22% 64% Median
68 12% 43%  
69 23% 31%  
70 6% 8%  
71 1.4% 2%  
72 0.7% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 4% 97%  
49 19% 93%  
50 18% 74% Median
51 15% 55%  
52 15% 41%  
53 12% 26%  
54 9% 14%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.7%  
40 3% 99.3%  
41 3% 97%  
42 7% 93%  
43 16% 87%  
44 21% 71% Median
45 22% 50%  
46 14% 28%  
47 6% 14%  
48 5% 7%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
36 0.7% 99.3%  
37 1.2% 98.5%  
38 2% 97%  
39 12% 95%  
40 14% 84% Median
41 22% 69%  
42 17% 47%  
43 12% 30%  
44 10% 18%  
45 3% 8%  
46 5% 6%  
47 0.4% 0.9%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.7% 99.5%  
26 1.5% 98.8%  
27 2% 97%  
28 7% 96%  
29 16% 89% Last Result
30 25% 73% Median
31 17% 48%  
32 12% 31%  
33 11% 19%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.9%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 4% 98%  
25 14% 93%  
26 20% 79% Median
27 17% 59%  
28 23% 42%  
29 12% 19%  
30 5% 7%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations