Opinion Poll by Survation, 4–9 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 41.0% 39.0–43.0% 38.5–43.6% 38.0–44.1% 37.1–45.0%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.8–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 10.0% 8.9–11.3% 8.6–11.7% 8.3–12.0% 7.8–12.7%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.4%
Reform UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 65 63–69 62–70 61–71 59–71
Scottish Labour 24 25 23–27 22–28 21–29 19–30
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 22 19–23 19–24 18–25 17–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 10–13 10–13 10–13 9–14
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–8 5–8 4–9 4–11
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 1.3% 99.5%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 24% 93% Last Result
64 14% 68%  
65 20% 54% Median, Majority
66 9% 35%  
67 9% 26%  
68 4% 16%  
69 5% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.6% 99.9%  
20 0.6% 99.3%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 4% 96%  
23 13% 92%  
24 12% 79% Last Result
25 33% 67% Median
26 20% 34%  
27 6% 14%  
28 4% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.8% 1.1%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.3%  
19 7% 96%  
20 20% 90%  
21 18% 70%  
22 19% 52% Median
23 24% 33%  
24 5% 9%  
25 3% 4%  
26 1.0% 1.2%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0.1% 99.9%  
8 0.3% 99.9%  
9 1.4% 99.6%  
10 56% 98% Median
11 16% 42%  
12 14% 26%  
13 9% 11%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.2% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 3% 100%  
5 23% 97% Last Result
6 23% 74%  
7 16% 51% Median
8 31% 35%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 75 100% 73–80 73–81 72–81 70–82
Scottish National Party 63 65 54% 63–69 62–70 61–71 59–71
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 54 0% 49–56 48–56 48–57 47–59
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 47 0% 43–49 42–50 42–50 40–52
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 39–45 39–46 37–46 36–48
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 32 0% 29–34 28–35 27–35 26–37
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 28 0% 25–30 25–31 24–32 22–34

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
70 0.6% 99.7%  
71 1.1% 99.1%  
72 2% 98%  
73 8% 96%  
74 19% 87%  
75 22% 68% Median
76 12% 46%  
77 10% 34%  
78 6% 24%  
79 6% 18%  
80 6% 12%  
81 5% 6%  
82 1.4% 1.4%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 1.3% 99.5%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 24% 93% Last Result
64 14% 68%  
65 20% 54% Median, Majority
66 9% 35%  
67 9% 26%  
68 4% 16%  
69 5% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 4% 4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 1.4% 100%  
48 5% 98.6%  
49 6% 94%  
50 6% 88%  
51 6% 82%  
52 10% 76%  
53 12% 66%  
54 22% 54% Median
55 19% 32%  
56 8% 13%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.6% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 7% 88%  
45 11% 80%  
46 17% 69%  
47 16% 52% Median
48 15% 35%  
49 14% 21%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.0%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100% Last Result
36 0.2% 99.7%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 2% 97%  
39 8% 95%  
40 8% 87%  
41 13% 79%  
42 14% 66% Median
43 21% 52%  
44 15% 31%  
45 7% 16%  
46 8% 9%  
47 0.8% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 0.6% 99.5%  
27 3% 98.9%  
28 5% 96%  
29 9% 91% Last Result
30 13% 82%  
31 16% 70%  
32 15% 53% Median
33 20% 38%  
34 13% 18%  
35 3% 6%  
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.8%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.6% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.3%  
24 3% 98.5%  
25 7% 95%  
26 10% 89%  
27 11% 79%  
28 23% 68%  
29 17% 45% Median
30 19% 28%  
31 5% 9%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations