Opinion Poll by Survation for The Courier, 11–18 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 39.4% 37.8–41.0% 37.4–41.5% 37.0–41.9% 36.2–42.7%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 20.2% 18.9–21.6% 18.5–22.0% 18.2–22.3% 17.6–23.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 19.2% 18.0–20.6% 17.6–20.9% 17.3–21.3% 16.7–21.9%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 11.1% 10.1–12.2% 9.8–12.5% 9.6–12.8% 9.1–13.3%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.5–8.9%
Reform UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.4% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 63 60–65 60–67 59–68 58–69
Scottish Labour 24 25 24–27 23–27 23–28 21–29
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 23 20–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Scottish Greens 6 12 10–13 10–14 10–14 10–15
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 9% 96%  
61 10% 87%  
62 12% 77%  
63 43% 65% Last Result, Median
64 7% 22%  
65 5% 14% Majority
66 3% 10%  
67 4% 7%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.8%  
22 1.3% 99.2%  
23 7% 98%  
24 27% 91% Last Result
25 36% 64% Median
26 17% 28%  
27 7% 11%  
28 2% 4%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 9% 98%  
21 12% 89%  
22 18% 77%  
23 28% 59% Median
24 18% 31%  
25 8% 13%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.8% 1.0%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0% Last Result

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 21% 100%  
11 17% 79%  
12 36% 62% Median
13 19% 26%  
14 6% 7%  
15 1.0% 1.0%  
16 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 1.0% 100%  
5 24% 98.9% Last Result
6 19% 75%  
7 18% 56% Median
8 36% 38%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 75 100% 72–77 71–79 70–79 69–80
Scottish National Party 63 63 14% 60–65 60–67 59–68 58–69
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 54 0% 52–57 50–58 50–59 49–60
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 55 48 0% 45–50 44–51 44–52 43–53
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 43 0% 41–46 41–46 40–46 39–48
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 32 0% 30–34 29–34 29–35 27–36
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 29 0% 27–32 26–33 25–33 25–34

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
70 2% 99.4%  
71 4% 97%  
72 8% 93%  
73 15% 85%  
74 19% 70%  
75 22% 51% Median
76 13% 30%  
77 7% 16%  
78 3% 9%  
79 5% 6%  
80 0.8% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 3% 99.0%  
60 9% 96%  
61 10% 87%  
62 12% 77%  
63 43% 65% Last Result, Median
64 7% 22%  
65 5% 14% Majority
66 3% 10%  
67 4% 7%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 0.8% 99.7%  
50 5% 98.8%  
51 3% 94%  
52 7% 91%  
53 13% 84%  
54 22% 70%  
55 19% 49% Median
56 15% 30%  
57 8% 15%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 4% 98.9%  
45 10% 95%  
46 12% 84%  
47 18% 72%  
48 17% 54% Median
49 18% 37%  
50 10% 19%  
51 5% 8%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.9% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
56 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100% Last Result
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.1% 99.6%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 95%  
42 14% 89%  
43 26% 75%  
44 23% 49% Median
45 15% 26%  
46 10% 11%  
47 0.8% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.8%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 5% 98% Last Result
30 15% 93%  
31 23% 78%  
32 22% 54% Median
33 21% 32%  
34 8% 12%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.4% 0.7%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 3% 99.8%  
26 4% 96%  
27 8% 93%  
28 18% 85%  
29 17% 67%  
30 20% 50% Median
31 13% 30%  
32 11% 17%  
33 5% 6%  
34 0.9% 1.1%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations