Opinion Poll by BMG Research for Herald Scotland, 16–19 March 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 42.0% 40.1–44.0% 39.5–44.6% 39.0–45.1% 38.1–46.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.8% 20.0–24.3% 19.6–24.7% 18.9–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 17.0% 15.6–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.9–19.5% 14.2–20.3%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Reform UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 65 62–69 61–69 61–70 60–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 27 24–31 24–32 23–32 22–33
Scottish Labour 24 20 17–23 17–24 17–24 16–26
Scottish Greens 6 10 5–10 5–10 4–10 4–11
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 8 6–10 6–10 6–11 5–12
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 6% 98%  
62 9% 92%  
63 10% 83% Last Result
64 12% 73%  
65 24% 61% Median, Majority
66 5% 37%  
67 15% 32%  
68 4% 17%  
69 10% 13%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 3% 98%  
24 6% 95%  
25 15% 89%  
26 22% 75%  
27 16% 52% Median
28 7% 36%  
29 9% 29%  
30 8% 20%  
31 7% 12% Last Result
32 4% 5%  
33 1.1% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 1.1% 100%  
17 12% 98.9%  
18 19% 86%  
19 11% 67%  
20 10% 56% Median
21 17% 46%  
22 17% 29%  
23 7% 13%  
24 3% 6% Last Result
25 2% 2%  
26 0.7% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 4% 99.6%  
5 6% 96%  
6 7% 90% Last Result
7 4% 83%  
8 4% 79%  
9 9% 75%  
10 65% 66% Median
11 0.6% 0.9%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100% Last Result
6 21% 98%  
7 11% 76%  
8 42% 66% Median
9 11% 24%  
10 8% 12%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 74 99.9% 70–78 69–79 68–79 66–80
Scottish National Party 63 65 61% 62–69 61–69 61–70 60–70
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 55 0.1% 51–59 50–60 50–61 49–63
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 47 0% 44–51 43–52 42–54 41–55
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 36 0% 34–40 33–41 33–42 32–43
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–41
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 28 0% 24–31 24–32 23–33 23–34

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9% Majority
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96% Last Result
70 6% 93%  
71 7% 87%  
72 9% 80%  
73 12% 71%  
74 12% 58%  
75 19% 46% Median
76 4% 27%  
77 12% 23%  
78 3% 11%  
79 7% 8%  
80 1.1% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.8%  
61 6% 98%  
62 9% 92%  
63 10% 83% Last Result
64 12% 73%  
65 24% 61% Median, Majority
66 5% 37%  
67 15% 32%  
68 4% 17%  
69 10% 13%  
70 3% 3%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 1.1% 99.9%  
50 7% 98.8%  
51 3% 92%  
52 12% 89%  
53 4% 77%  
54 19% 73%  
55 12% 54% Median
56 12% 42%  
57 9% 29%  
58 7% 20%  
59 6% 13%  
60 3% 7% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Majority
66 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 1.2% 99.7%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 14% 91%  
45 6% 77%  
46 12% 71%  
47 12% 58% Median
48 16% 47%  
49 10% 31%  
50 7% 20%  
51 5% 13%  
52 4% 9%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.4% 3%  
55 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.7%  
33 7% 98.6%  
34 12% 92%  
35 15% 80% Last Result
36 16% 65%  
37 13% 49%  
38 11% 36% Median
39 10% 25%  
40 6% 15%  
41 4% 9%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.8% 99.7%  
30 2% 98.9%  
31 5% 97%  
32 8% 92%  
33 11% 85%  
34 21% 74%  
35 14% 53% Median
36 12% 39% Last Result
37 11% 27%  
38 6% 15%  
39 5% 9%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.9% 1.1%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 3% 99.6%  
24 6% 96%  
25 11% 90%  
26 12% 78%  
27 10% 66%  
28 13% 56% Median
29 14% 43% Last Result
30 13% 28%  
31 7% 15%  
32 4% 8%  
33 3% 4%  
34 1.0% 1.3%  
35 0.3% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations