Opinion Poll by Find Out Now for Daily Express, 23–26 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 42.5% | 40.5–44.5% | 39.9–45.0% | 39.5–45.5% | 38.5–46.5% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 21.2% | 19.7–23.0% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.1–24.7% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 16.1% | 14.7–17.7% | 14.3–18.2% | 14.0–18.5% | 13.4–19.3% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 11.2% | 10.0–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% | 9.4–13.2% | 8.8–13.9% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.1% |
| Reform UK | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 66 | 64–70 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 60–72 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 27 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 23–32 | 21–32 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 18 | 17–22 | 17–23 | 17–23 | 17–25 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 5 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 64 | 16% | 90% | |
| 65 | 10% | 74% | Majority |
| 66 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 48% | |
| 68 | 13% | 36% | |
| 69 | 12% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 23 | 4% | 98% | |
| 24 | 8% | 94% | |
| 25 | 14% | 86% | |
| 26 | 16% | 72% | |
| 27 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 38% | |
| 29 | 8% | 29% | |
| 30 | 13% | 20% | |
| 31 | 5% | 7% | Last Result |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 30% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 24% | 70% | Median |
| 19 | 16% | 47% | |
| 20 | 10% | 31% | |
| 21 | 8% | 21% | |
| 22 | 6% | 13% | |
| 23 | 5% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 7% | 100% | |
| 11 | 27% | 93% | |
| 12 | 33% | 65% | Median |
| 13 | 21% | 32% | |
| 14 | 7% | 11% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 7% | 94% | |
| 4 | 17% | 87% | |
| 5 | 68% | 70% | Last Result, Median |
| 6 | 2% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reform UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 78 | 100% | 75–82 | 75–83 | 74–83 | 72–84 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 66 | 74% | 64–70 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 60–72 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 51 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–54 | 46–55 | 45–57 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 46 | 0% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–50 | 40–52 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 35 | 0% | 33–39 | 32–40 | 32–40 | 30–42 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 32 | 0% | 28–35 | 28–36 | 27–36 | 25–37 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 23 | 0% | 22–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 | 19–29 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 99.2% | |
| 74 | 2% | 98% | |
| 75 | 8% | 96% | |
| 76 | 9% | 89% | |
| 77 | 16% | 79% | |
| 78 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 79 | 12% | 48% | |
| 80 | 15% | 37% | |
| 81 | 9% | 22% | |
| 82 | 7% | 12% | |
| 83 | 3% | 5% | |
| 84 | 2% | 2% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 64 | 16% | 90% | |
| 65 | 10% | 74% | Majority |
| 66 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 48% | |
| 68 | 13% | 36% | |
| 69 | 12% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98% | |
| 47 | 7% | 95% | |
| 48 | 9% | 88% | |
| 49 | 15% | 78% | |
| 50 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 52% | |
| 52 | 16% | 37% | |
| 53 | 9% | 21% | |
| 54 | 8% | 11% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 9% | 92% | |
| 44 | 12% | 83% | |
| 45 | 13% | 71% | Median |
| 46 | 14% | 58% | |
| 47 | 18% | 44% | |
| 48 | 12% | 26% | |
| 49 | 8% | 14% | |
| 50 | 4% | 6% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98% | |
| 33 | 10% | 94% | |
| 34 | 17% | 84% | |
| 35 | 25% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 36 | 13% | 42% | |
| 37 | 10% | 29% | |
| 38 | 8% | 19% | |
| 39 | 6% | 11% | |
| 40 | 3% | 5% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 95% | |
| 29 | 11% | 89% | |
| 30 | 12% | 78% | |
| 31 | 14% | 66% | |
| 32 | 17% | 51% | Median |
| 33 | 10% | 34% | |
| 34 | 8% | 24% | |
| 35 | 10% | 16% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 5% | 96% | |
| 22 | 28% | 91% | |
| 23 | 24% | 63% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 39% | |
| 25 | 7% | 23% | |
| 26 | 6% | 17% | |
| 27 | 5% | 10% | |
| 28 | 3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Find Out Now
- Commissioner(s): Daily Express
- Fieldwork period: 23–26 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1022
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.85%