Opinion Poll by Survation for The Courier, 29–30 March 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 38.0% | 36.1–40.0% | 35.5–40.6% | 35.0–41.1% | 34.1–42.0% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 19.0% | 17.5–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.0–22.4% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 18.0% | 16.5–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.7–20.5% | 15.0–21.3% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.1% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.6% | 6.5–9.9% | 6.0–10.5% |
| Alba Party | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| UK Independence Party | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 65 | 61–68 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–69 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 24 | 21–25 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 18–28 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 21 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–25 | 17–26 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| Alba Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UK Independence Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 9% | 97% | |
| 62 | 16% | 88% | |
| 63 | 10% | 71% | Last Result |
| 64 | 8% | 62% | |
| 65 | 7% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 66 | 8% | 46% | |
| 67 | 17% | 38% | |
| 68 | 17% | 21% | |
| 69 | 4% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 9% | 96% | |
| 22 | 18% | 87% | |
| 23 | 16% | 69% | |
| 24 | 17% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 25 | 28% | 36% | |
| 26 | 5% | 8% | |
| 27 | 3% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 18 | 8% | 97% | |
| 19 | 21% | 90% | |
| 20 | 11% | 69% | |
| 21 | 12% | 58% | Median |
| 22 | 12% | 47% | |
| 23 | 7% | 35% | |
| 24 | 23% | 28% | |
| 25 | 3% | 5% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 17% | 100% | |
| 11 | 27% | 83% | |
| 12 | 33% | 56% | Median |
| 13 | 17% | 23% | |
| 14 | 6% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 6 | 20% | 96% | |
| 7 | 21% | 76% | |
| 8 | 29% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 26% | |
| 10 | 13% | 15% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
UK Independence Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the UK Independence Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reform UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party | 69 | 77 | 100% | 73–79 | 72–80 | 72–80 | 70–82 |
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 77 | 100% | 73–79 | 72–80 | 72–80 | 70–82 |
| Scottish National Party – Alba Party | 63 | 65 | 53% | 61–68 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–69 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 65 | 53% | 61–68 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–69 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 52 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–57 | 49–57 | 47–59 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 55 | 45 | 0% | 41–48 | 40–49 | 40–50 | 39–51 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 43 | 0% | 41–45 | 40–46 | 40–46 | 38–48 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 27–36 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 29 | 0% | 25–33 | 25–33 | 25–34 | 24–35 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 7% | 94% | |
| 74 | 18% | 87% | |
| 75 | 6% | 69% | |
| 76 | 12% | 63% | |
| 77 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 78 | 11% | 45% | |
| 79 | 27% | 34% | |
| 80 | 5% | 7% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 7% | 94% | |
| 74 | 18% | 87% | |
| 75 | 6% | 69% | |
| 76 | 12% | 63% | |
| 77 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 78 | 11% | 45% | |
| 79 | 27% | 34% | |
| 80 | 5% | 7% | |
| 81 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 9% | 97% | |
| 62 | 16% | 88% | |
| 63 | 10% | 71% | Last Result |
| 64 | 9% | 62% | |
| 65 | 7% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 66 | 8% | 46% | |
| 67 | 17% | 38% | |
| 68 | 17% | 21% | |
| 69 | 4% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 9% | 97% | |
| 62 | 16% | 88% | |
| 63 | 10% | 71% | Last Result |
| 64 | 8% | 62% | |
| 65 | 7% | 53% | Median, Majority |
| 66 | 8% | 46% | |
| 67 | 17% | 38% | |
| 68 | 17% | 21% | |
| 69 | 4% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 5% | 98% | |
| 50 | 27% | 93% | |
| 51 | 11% | 66% | |
| 52 | 6% | 55% | |
| 53 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 54 | 6% | 37% | |
| 55 | 18% | 31% | |
| 56 | 7% | 13% | |
| 57 | 3% | 6% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 41 | 5% | 94% | |
| 42 | 7% | 89% | |
| 43 | 11% | 81% | |
| 44 | 19% | 70% | |
| 45 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 46 | 12% | 39% | |
| 47 | 10% | 27% | |
| 48 | 10% | 17% | |
| 49 | 4% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 4% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 3% | 98% | |
| 41 | 11% | 95% | |
| 42 | 23% | 83% | |
| 43 | 31% | 61% | |
| 44 | 15% | 30% | Median |
| 45 | 9% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 3% | 98% | |
| 29 | 7% | 96% | Last Result |
| 30 | 14% | 89% | |
| 31 | 39% | 75% | |
| 32 | 19% | 36% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 17% | |
| 34 | 4% | 6% | |
| 35 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 13% | 98.6% | |
| 26 | 12% | 85% | |
| 27 | 9% | 73% | |
| 28 | 8% | 64% | |
| 29 | 10% | 56% | Median |
| 30 | 10% | 46% | |
| 31 | 12% | 36% | |
| 32 | 12% | 24% | |
| 33 | 7% | 12% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Survation
- Commissioner(s): The Courier
- Fieldwork period: 29–30 March 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.95%