Opinion Poll by Survation for GMB, 23–26 April 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 41.7% | 37.8% | 35.9–39.8% | 35.3–40.3% | 34.8–40.8% | 33.9–41.8% |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 22.9% | 22.4% | 20.8–24.2% | 20.3–24.7% | 20.0–25.1% | 19.2–26.0% |
| Scottish Labour | 19.1% | 18.4% | 16.9–20.0% | 16.4–20.5% | 16.1–20.9% | 15.4–21.7% |
| Scottish Greens | 6.6% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.8–11.9% | 8.5–12.3% | 8.0–12.9% |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.3–9.5% |
| Alba Party | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.5% |
| Reform UK | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 60 | 58–63 | 57–65 | 55–67 | 53–69 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party | 31 | 28 | 25–31 | 24–33 | 24–33 | 22–34 |
| Scottish Labour | 24 | 23 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| Scottish Greens | 6 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 |
| Scottish Liberal Democrats | 5 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 4–11 |
| Alba Party | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reform UK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Scottish National Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 5% | 94% | |
| 59 | 20% | 90% | |
| 60 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 61 | 19% | 43% | |
| 62 | 7% | 24% | |
| 63 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 64 | 3% | 10% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 66 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 24 | 5% | 98% | |
| 25 | 8% | 93% | |
| 26 | 15% | 85% | |
| 27 | 14% | 70% | |
| 28 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 29 | 12% | 35% | |
| 30 | 11% | 23% | |
| 31 | 4% | 12% | Last Result |
| 32 | 3% | 8% | |
| 33 | 4% | 5% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 6% | 95% | |
| 20 | 3% | 89% | |
| 21 | 10% | 86% | |
| 22 | 13% | 76% | |
| 23 | 21% | 63% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 42% | Last Result |
| 25 | 13% | 19% | |
| 26 | 5% | 6% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Greens
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 41% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 12 | 29% | 39% | |
| 13 | 7% | 10% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Liberal Democrats
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 16% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 6 | 39% | 83% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 45% | |
| 8 | 22% | 32% | |
| 9 | 5% | 10% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Alba Party
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reform UK
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party | 69 | 71 | 99.4% | 69–74 | 68–76 | 66–78 | 64–79 |
| Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens | 69 | 71 | 99.4% | 69–74 | 68–76 | 66–78 | 64–79 |
| Scottish National Party – Alba Party | 63 | 60 | 6% | 58–63 | 57–65 | 55–67 | 53–69 |
| Scottish National Party | 63 | 60 | 6% | 58–63 | 57–65 | 55–67 | 53–69 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 60 | 58 | 0.6% | 55–60 | 53–61 | 51–63 | 50–65 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour | 55 | 51 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–54 | 45–56 | 44–58 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 35 | 41 | 0% | 37–44 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 36 | 34 | 0% | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 28–42 |
| Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats | 29 | 30 | 0% | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 | 23–35 |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 66 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 2% | 95% | |
| 69 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 70 | 14% | 84% | |
| 71 | 22% | 70% | Median |
| 72 | 16% | 49% | |
| 73 | 14% | 33% | |
| 74 | 8% | 18% | |
| 75 | 3% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 7% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 66 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 68 | 2% | 95% | |
| 69 | 9% | 93% | Last Result |
| 70 | 14% | 84% | |
| 71 | 22% | 70% | Median |
| 72 | 16% | 49% | |
| 73 | 14% | 33% | |
| 74 | 8% | 18% | |
| 75 | 3% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 7% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party – Alba Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 5% | 94% | |
| 59 | 20% | 90% | |
| 60 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 61 | 19% | 43% | |
| 62 | 7% | 24% | |
| 63 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 64 | 3% | 10% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 66 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish National Party
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 57 | 2% | 96% | |
| 58 | 5% | 94% | |
| 59 | 20% | 90% | |
| 60 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 61 | 19% | 43% | |
| 62 | 7% | 24% | |
| 63 | 7% | 17% | Last Result |
| 64 | 3% | 10% | |
| 65 | 2% | 6% | Majority |
| 66 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 53 | 2% | 95% | |
| 54 | 3% | 93% | |
| 55 | 8% | 90% | |
| 56 | 14% | 82% | |
| 57 | 16% | 67% | Median |
| 58 | 22% | 51% | |
| 59 | 14% | 30% | |
| 60 | 9% | 16% | Last Result |
| 61 | 2% | 7% | |
| 62 | 1.3% | 5% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 2% | 95% | |
| 47 | 4% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 90% | |
| 49 | 14% | 82% | |
| 50 | 15% | 68% | |
| 51 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 52 | 16% | 38% | |
| 53 | 9% | 22% | |
| 54 | 8% | 13% | |
| 55 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 56 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 57 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 36 | 3% | 96% | |
| 37 | 5% | 92% | |
| 38 | 6% | 87% | |
| 39 | 9% | 81% | |
| 40 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 41 | 18% | 57% | |
| 42 | 19% | 39% | |
| 43 | 9% | 20% | |
| 44 | 7% | 11% | |
| 45 | 3% | 4% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 31 | 4% | 96% | |
| 32 | 9% | 92% | |
| 33 | 11% | 84% | |
| 34 | 28% | 73% | Median |
| 35 | 16% | 44% | |
| 36 | 10% | 28% | Last Result |
| 37 | 7% | 19% | |
| 38 | 5% | 12% | |
| 39 | 3% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 5% | 97% | |
| 26 | 4% | 92% | |
| 27 | 5% | 88% | |
| 28 | 10% | 82% | |
| 29 | 18% | 72% | Last Result, Median |
| 30 | 21% | 54% | |
| 31 | 15% | 33% | |
| 32 | 8% | 18% | |
| 33 | 6% | 10% | |
| 34 | 3% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Survation
- Commissioner(s): GMB
- Fieldwork period: 23–26 April 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1008
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.75%