Opinion Poll by YouGov for The Times, 2–4 May 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 41.7% 38.0% 36.1–40.0% 35.5–40.6% 35.0–41.1% 34.1–42.0%
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 22.9% 22.0% 20.4–23.7% 19.9–24.2% 19.5–24.7% 18.8–25.5%
Scottish Labour 19.1% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Scottish Greens 6.6% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Alba Party 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Reform UK 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party 63 62 59–68 59–69 57–69 55–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party 31 28 24–31 24–32 24–33 23–35
Scottish Labour 24 19 17–22 17–24 16–24 15–25
Scottish Greens 6 14 13–17 12–19 12–20 11–21
Scottish Liberal Democrats 5 5 3–5 2–6 2–6 2–7
Alba Party 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Reform UK 0 0 0 0 0 0

Scottish National Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish National Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 1.0% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 98.8%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 1.1% 97%  
59 10% 96%  
60 15% 86%  
61 15% 71%  
62 7% 56% Median
63 15% 48% Last Result
64 13% 33%  
65 4% 20% Majority
66 3% 17%  
67 2% 14%  
68 6% 11%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 1.0% 99.6%  
24 9% 98.7%  
25 16% 89%  
26 9% 73%  
27 10% 65%  
28 8% 55% Median
29 13% 46%  
30 13% 34%  
31 14% 20% Last Result
32 4% 7%  
33 1.4% 3%  
34 0.8% 1.4%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Labour page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.6% 100%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 31% 97%  
18 10% 66%  
19 12% 56% Median
20 10% 44%  
21 18% 34%  
22 7% 16%  
23 4% 9%  
24 5% 5% Last Result
25 0.9% 0.9%  
26 0% 0%  

Scottish Greens

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Greens page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100% Last Result
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 1.0% 100%  
12 4% 99.0%  
13 28% 95%  
14 19% 67% Median
15 27% 48%  
16 6% 21%  
17 5% 15%  
18 4% 10%  
19 2% 5%  
20 2% 3%  
21 1.0% 1.0%  
22 0% 0%  

Scottish Liberal Democrats

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Scottish Liberal Democrats page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 5% 100%  
3 5% 95%  
4 20% 89%  
5 63% 70% Last Result, Median
6 6% 7%  
7 0.8% 1.0%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Alba Party

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alba Party page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.8%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Reform UK

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reform UK page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party 69 77 100% 74–82 73–82 71–83 70–85
Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens 69 77 100% 74–82 73–82 71–83 70–85
Scottish National Party – Alba Party 63 62 21% 59–68 59–69 57–69 55–69
Scottish National Party 63 62 20% 59–68 59–69 57–69 55–69
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 60 52 0% 47–55 47–56 46–58 44–59
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour 55 47 0% 43–51 42–52 42–53 40–54
Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats 35 39 0% 35–43 34–43 33–44 32–45
Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats 36 32 0% 29–36 28–37 28–38 26–40
Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats 29 24 0% 21–27 20–28 19–29 19–30

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 1.4% 98.8%  
72 2% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 16% 90%  
75 5% 75%  
76 14% 69% Median
77 12% 55%  
78 11% 43%  
79 8% 32%  
80 5% 24%  
81 7% 19%  
82 8% 12%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.6% 1.4%  
85 0.5% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Scottish Greens

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 1.4% 98.8%  
72 2% 97%  
73 5% 95%  
74 16% 90%  
75 5% 75%  
76 14% 69% Median
77 12% 55%  
78 11% 43%  
79 8% 32%  
80 5% 24%  
81 7% 19%  
82 8% 12%  
83 2% 4%  
84 0.6% 1.4%  
85 0.5% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party – Alba Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 1.0% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 98.8%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 1.1% 97%  
59 10% 96%  
60 15% 86%  
61 15% 71%  
62 7% 56% Median
63 15% 48% Last Result
64 12% 33%  
65 4% 21% Majority
66 3% 17%  
67 2% 14%  
68 6% 12%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish National Party

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 1.0% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 98.8%  
57 0.8% 98%  
58 1.1% 97%  
59 10% 96%  
60 15% 86%  
61 15% 71%  
62 7% 56% Median
63 15% 48% Last Result
64 13% 33%  
65 4% 20% Majority
66 3% 17%  
67 2% 14%  
68 6% 11%  
69 5% 5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.6%  
45 0.6% 99.2%  
46 2% 98.6%  
47 8% 96%  
48 7% 88%  
49 5% 81%  
50 8% 76%  
51 11% 68%  
52 12% 57% Median
53 14% 45%  
54 5% 31%  
55 16% 25%  
56 5% 10%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.4% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.2%  
60 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Labour

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 6% 88%  
45 10% 81%  
46 12% 71%  
47 13% 60% Median
48 15% 47%  
49 7% 32%  
50 13% 26%  
51 7% 13%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 1.0% 1.5%  
55 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Greens – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 2% 100%  
33 2% 98%  
34 5% 96%  
35 12% 91% Last Result
36 9% 79%  
37 8% 70%  
38 11% 63% Median
39 9% 52%  
40 13% 43%  
41 13% 30%  
42 6% 16%  
43 6% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0% 0%  

Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 4% 98%  
29 12% 93%  
30 10% 82%  
31 12% 72%  
32 10% 60%  
33 7% 50% Median
34 15% 43%  
35 11% 28%  
36 12% 18% Last Result
37 3% 6%  
38 1.4% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Scottish Labour – Scottish Liberal Democrats

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 3% 99.7%  
20 4% 97%  
21 6% 93%  
22 27% 87%  
23 7% 60%  
24 11% 53% Median
25 11% 41%  
26 15% 31%  
27 7% 16%  
28 5% 9%  
29 3% 4% Last Result
30 0.8% 0.8%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations