Opinion Poll by NMS, 7–11 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0.0% 25.3% 23.6–27.1% 23.1–27.6% 22.7–28.1% 21.9–29.0%
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 24.1% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.3–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0.0% 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.7%
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 13.2% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 6.7% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.3%
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.8%
Demokrati (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
SME RODINA (PfE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 6.5% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 3.6% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.1%
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 1.7% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) 4 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) 2 1 1 1 1–2 0–2
Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) 1 1 1 1 1 0–1
Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Demokrati (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
SME RODINA (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szövetség (EPP) 1 0 0 0 0 0–1
Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kresťanská únia (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresívne Slovensko (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 94% 95% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SMER–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 16% 100%  
4 83% 84% Last Result, Median
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the HLAS–sociálna demokracia (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 90% 99.9% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the REPUBLIKA (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0% 0%  

Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanskodemokratické hnutie (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 95% 98% Median
2 3% 3% Last Result
3 0% 0%  

Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sloboda a Solidarita (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 98% 98% Last Result, Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovensko–Za ľudí (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Last Result, Median
1 15% 15%  
2 0% 0%  

Demokrati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokrati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 6% 6%  
2 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the SME RODINA (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szövetség (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szövetség (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Median
1 0.6% 0.6% Last Result
2 0% 0%  

Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Slovenská národná strana (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kotleba–Ľudová strana Naše Slovensko (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kresťanská únia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kresťanská únia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Progresívne Slovensko (RE) 0 5 0% 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
REPUBLIKA (ESN) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1

Progresívne Slovensko (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 5% 100%  
5 94% 95% Median
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  

REPUBLIKA (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 85% 85% Median
3 0% 0%  

SME RODINA (PfE) – Slovenská národná strana (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations